Baylor Bears vs Houston Cougars Picks and Predictions March 8th 2025

No. 3 Houston’s Big 12 Dominance Puts Baylor’s NCAA Tournament Hopes on the Line

The Houston Cougars have been tearing through the Big 12, locking up the regular-season title with an almost flawless conference record. But as they gear up for their last game before the postseason, there’s more than just momentum at stake. For Baylor, this matchup could mean the difference between making the NCAA Tournament or missing the cut.

Let’s break down Houston’s dominance, Baylor’s tournament uncertainty, and the key matchups that will decide the fate of both teams.

Houston’s Unstoppable Big 12 Debut

Houston (26-4, 18-1 Big 12) has made a statement in its first season in the Big 12. They’re not just winning—they’re shutting teams down. The Cougars have held 11 conference opponents under 60 points, thanks to a suffocating defense that refuses to let teams breathe.

After clinching the regular-season championship last weekend in Cincinnati, you’d think they might take their foot off the gas. Not under head coach Kelvin Sampson.

“Going 18-1 in this league is unheard of. Guys don’t do that,” Sampson said. “You have to have some good fortune along the way too. We probably shouldn’t have won the game at Kansas.”

That 92-86 double-overtime thriller against Kansas on Jan. 25? A game Houston probably should’ve lost—but they clawed their way back, not once but twice. Then, they barely escaped UCF with a 69-68 win, thanks to J’Wan Roberts’ clutch game-winner.

Even with all their success, Sampson isn’t about to let his team get comfortable.

“I’m never going to say we’re playing our best ball because I prefer to think our best ball is ahead of us,” he said. “We’ve just got to continue to work. Stay humble, keep working.”

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Baylor’s Bubble Trouble

Baylor (18-12, 10-9 Big 12) isn’t used to sweating on Selection Sunday, but here we are. The Bears have been dominant at home (13-2) but have struggled late in the season, losing six of their last nine before finding some life with back-to-back wins.

Now, they’re staring at a must-win situation against Houston. If they lose and crash out early in the Big 12 Tournament, they might not hear their name called on Selection Sunday.

Head coach Scott Drew knows the pressure is on.

“We’ve been close to the bubble area. We’re not used to being in this position,” Drew admitted. “Getting a road win like [TCU] was huge for that. And at the same time, you’ve got to get momentum, and you’ve got to be playing better.”

Baylor’s 61-58 win over TCU gave them a much-needed boost. Robert Wright III came up clutch, sinking two free throws in the final seconds, while Norchad Omier (19 points, 12 rebounds) and VJ Edgecombe (18 points, 7 rebounds) led the charge.

Edgecombe, who’s been averaging 14.7 PPG, summed up the mindset heading into this showdown.

“When you play with passion, that’s what it’s going to take,” he said. “I’m just trying to do all the little things—diving into the bench, whatever it takes to win.”

Omier, Baylor’s top scorer at 15.7 PPG, is also their best rebounder at 10.5 RPG. If the Bears want to take down Houston, his presence in the paint will be key.

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Key Matchups to Watch

L.J. Cryer (Houston) vs. Norchad Omier (Baylor)

L.J. Cryer has been lighting it up for Houston, leading the team with 15.0 PPG and 87 made threes this season. Funny enough, he used to play for Baylor—so expect a little extra motivation in this one.

Omier, on the other hand, is Baylor’s answer inside. If he can dominate the glass and keep Cryer from getting open looks, the Bears have a chance.

Houston’s Defense vs. Baylor’s Home-Court Magic

Houston’s defense has made even elite offenses look average. But Baylor’s 13-2 record at home proves they’re a different beast in Waco.

When these teams met back on Feb. 10, Houston took care of business with a 76-65 win. Cryer led the way with 14 points, but Baylor will need a stronger offensive showing this time if they want revenge.

What’s on the Line?

For Houston, a win further cements their case for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and keeps their momentum rolling into March Madness.

For Baylor, a loss could leave them sweating it out on Selection Sunday. But if they can pull off an upset, they’ll likely secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament.

With everything at stake, expect a high-energy, physical battle in Waco.

Final Prediction

Houston has been the most dominant team in the Big 12, but Baylor’s desperation and home-court energy make this a tougher game than it looks on paper. If Houston brings its usual defensive intensity, though, they should be able to grind out another hard-fought win.

Projected Score: Houston 72, Baylor 66

Will Houston keep rolling, or will Baylor rise to the occasion? We’re about to find out.

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