Duke Blue Devils vs Alabama Crimson Tide Picks and Predictions March 29th 2025

Duke Defense Faces Alabama’s Sharpshooting Offense for Final Four Berth

NEWARK, N.J. — A classic clash of strengths takes center stage Saturday night as top-seeded Duke locks horns with second-seeded Alabama in the East Region final, with a coveted trip to the Final Four on the line.

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Duke’s Defense Set for Its Toughest Test Yet

Duke (34-3) arrives in the Elite Eight riding the two-way brilliance of freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, who poured in 30 points with six rebounds and seven assists in a thrilling 100-93 win over Arizona in the Sweet 16. Now, the Blue Devils face an entirely different challenge in Alabama’s perimeter-oriented, fast-paced offense.

Head coach Jon Scheyer’s squad has built its identity on defense, holding opponents to 62.5 points per game — seventh-best in the nation — while limiting teams to 31 percent from beyond the arc. Their ability to rotate and protect the rim will be tested by the most aggressive 3-point shooting team in the country.

“We just have to stay true to who we are,” Duke guard Tyrese Proctor said. “When we’re connected on defense, I think we’re the best in the country.”

Alabama’s Record-Setting Offense Hitting Its Stride

Alabama (28-8) lit up the scoreboard in its 113-88 Sweet 16 rout over BYU, setting NCAA Tournament records with 25 made 3-pointers on 51 attempts. Senior guard Mark Sears was at the center of the explosion, drilling 10 triples and finishing with 41 points.

Sears, who now has 2,833 career points, is two buckets away from passing Larry Bird on the all-time Division I scoring list. While he had been in a slump before Thursday, his gravity and leadership continue to fuel Alabama’s top-ranked offense.

Head coach Nate Oats knows Duke poses a vastly different challenge.

“They’ve got length everywhere. They protect the rim, switch well, and they make you work for everything,” Oats said. “But we’re not backing down. This is what March is about.”

Experience vs. Youth

Alabama starts four fifth-year players, including Sears, Chris Youngblood, Grant Nelson, and Clifford Omoruyi. Their collective NCAA Tournament experience is a stark contrast to Duke’s younger core, led by freshmen Flagg and Kon Knueppel.

Despite that, Scheyer has his Blue Devils right back in the Elite Eight for the second straight year — and now one win from Duke’s first Final Four appearance since Coach K’s retirement.

“All year we’ve pointed to being here again and getting over this hump,” Scheyer said. “We’re not trying to reinvent anything. Just keep doing what got us here — and do it at the highest level.”

Key Matchup: Duke’s Perimeter Defense vs. Alabama’s 3-Point Attack

The outcome likely hinges on how well Duke can contest the perimeter. The Blue Devils allow just 22.2 opponent 3-point attempts per game. Slowing Alabama’s tempo and defending the arc will be critical.

If Duke can impose its pace, limit Alabama’s clean looks, and allow Flagg to control both ends, the Blue Devils may punch their ticket to the Final Four. But if Sears gets hot early and the Crimson Tide find rhythm from deep, Alabama could make it back-to-back national semifinal appearances.

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Prediction

A stylistic chess match that comes down to execution and tempo. Duke’s defense prevails late in a thriller.