Duke Blue Devils vs Louisville Cardinals Picks and Predictions March 15th 2025

Blue Devils Eye ACC Crown Without Cooper Flagg

The ACC Tournament concludes with a marquee championship matchup as No. 1 Duke (30-3) battles No. 13 Louisville (27-6) on Saturday night in Charlotte. Both teams have put together impressive seasons, securing strong NCAA Tournament positioning, but before the Big Dance begins, an ACC title is on the line.

Top-seeded Duke will be playing in its 36th ACC title game and looking to capture its 23rd tournament championship. Meanwhile, Louisville, the No. 2 seed, is searching for its first ACC Tournament crown since joining the conference in 2014. Both teams had to survive tight semifinals, setting the stage for what should be a competitive showdown.

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Duke Adjusting Without Flagg, Eyes No. 1 Overall Seed

Duke enters the final without its biggest star, as freshman Cooper Flagg will miss his second consecutive game due to a sprained ankle. The ACC Player of the Year suffered the injury in Duke’s tournament opener against Georgia Tech, and while his recovery is progressing, the Blue Devils are focused on having him ready for the NCAA Tournament.

Despite missing their star, Duke still found a way to grind out a 74-71 victory over North Carolina in the semifinals. Kon Knueppel stepped up with clutch scoring, and Jeremy Roach played a key role in guiding the Blue Devils through critical moments. Duke built a 24-point lead but had to weather a furious Tar Heels rally in the second half.

Coach Jon Scheyer has emphasized a “go for it” mentality, knowing a win here could potentially lock up the overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. However, Duke will need to execute better in late-game situations without Flagg, something that became apparent against North Carolina.

Louisville’s Depth Will Be Tested

Louisville’s resurgence under first-year coach Pat Kelsey has been one of the best stories of the season. The Cardinals have gone from an 8-24 campaign last year to playing for an ACC title, setting a new school record for wins by a first-year coach.

Louisville held off Clemson 76-73 in the semifinals, but the physicality of that contest took a toll. Three of the Cardinals’ key players—Chucky Hepburn, J’Vonne Hadley, and Terrence Edwards Jr.—logged over 37 minutes, leaving concerns about fatigue heading into the championship.

Hadley has been a leader for this Louisville squad, emphasizing how far the team has come after being pieced together via the transfer portal. The Cardinals nearly upset Duke in their first meeting back on Dec. 8, when they led by 14 points before the Blue Devils rallied for a 76-65 victory. They will look to avoid a similar collapse in this rematch.

Head-to-Head Matchup Breakdown

Duke and Louisville met once this season, with the Blue Devils erasing a double-digit deficit to win 76-65 on the road in December. That game was both teams’ ACC opener, and Duke’s depth ultimately proved too much for the Cardinals.

The biggest question in this rematch will be how Duke adjusts without Flagg. Louisville has played well in tight games, and if the Cardinals can keep it close, their ability to grind out possessions could become a factor late. However, the Blue Devils’ defensive intensity and balanced scoring have carried them through difficult situations all year.

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Expert Prediction and Betting Insight

Duke has already secured a high NCAA Tournament seed, but the Blue Devils still have motivation to win the ACC crown and solidify their case for the top overall seed. Louisville, meanwhile, is looking to complete its remarkable turnaround with a conference championship.

The biggest concerns for both teams are depth and fatigue. Duke’s late-game execution will be tested without Flagg, while Louisville may struggle to keep up physically after an exhausting semifinal.

Duke’s defensive discipline and ability to push the tempo should give the Blue Devils the edge, but Louisville’s resilience makes this a compelling matchup. Bettors should consider Duke’s history of success in the ACC Tournament, as well as the potential for a lower-scoring game if fatigue plays a role.

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