Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans Picks and Predictions February 15th 2025

Spartans Searching for Answers After Recent Struggles

Not long ago, Michigan State sat atop the Big Ten standings as the conference’s last remaining unbeaten team. But in a span of two weeks, the Spartans (19-5, 10-3 Big Ten) have dropped three of four games, slipping to third place.

Now, No. 11 Michigan State faces another difficult challenge as they travel to Champaign on Saturday night to battle Illinois (17-8, 9-6), a team building momentum at the right time.

Head coach Tom Izzo, who remains stuck at 353 career Big Ten victories—tied with Bob Knight for the most in conference history—knows his team must right the ship quickly.

“I tried to explain when we were 9-0 (in the Big Ten) what was going on,” Izzo said. “I haven’t changed one bit. I told you four or five losses would win the league. I haven’t changed on that at all. We put ourselves in a hole now because we didn’t do the job at home. You’ve got to win your home games and split on the road.”

The Spartans had a golden opportunity to give Izzo the record-setting win at home on Tuesday against Indiana, but the Hoosiers spoiled the celebration with a surprising 59-54 comeback victory. Indiana switched to a zone defense late in the first half—despite barely using it all season—and Michigan State struggled to adjust, shooting a dismal 4-of-23 from three-point range.

“We haven’t run into much zone,” Izzo admitted. “But when you run into it, your shooters gotta make shots.”

Michigan State’s Shooting Woes a Major Concern

The Spartans’ season-long struggles from beyond the arc have been a glaring issue, and their poor shooting against Indiana only amplified it.

Michigan State ranks among the bottom 10 teams in the nation in three-point percentage (28.8%) and makes just 5.6 threes per game—the worst mark among all power-conference teams.

Jaden Akins leads the team in scoring (13.4 PPG) and has made the most threes (36), but he’s shooting just 29.3% from deep. Without a reliable outside shooting presence, Michigan State has had to rely on mid-range and inside scoring.

Fortunately for the Spartans, Illinois head coach Brad Underwood prefers a man-to-man defensive scheme that forces opponents off the three-point line and into tough two-point attempts.

Illinois Finds Its Groove Behind Emerging Trio

Illinois has won back-to-back games over Minnesota and UCLA, thanks largely to freshman point guard Kasparas Jakucionis. The young star has scored a career-high 24 points in each of the last two victories while controlling the tempo and running the offense efficiently.

“I’ve said it many times: We’re really good when we have all the pieces and the pieces fit together,” Underwood said. “I thought Kasparas just controlled the (UCLA) game in the second half.”

Jakucionis leads the Illini in scoring (16.0 PPG), and his chemistry with 7-foot-1 center Tomislav Ivisic and freshman wing Will Riley is beginning to elevate Illinois’ offense.

Ivisic, despite dealing with mono and a high ankle sprain that sidelined him for three games, returned to average 17 points and 9.0 rebounds over the last two games. Riley has been equally impactful, posting 18.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game in that span.

Can Illinois Avenge Its January Loss to Michigan State?

When these two teams met on Jan. 19 in East Lansing, Michigan State eked out an 80-78 victory, thanks to an efficient 25-of-55 shooting performance from inside the arc and a crucial 21-of-27 night at the free-throw line.

Illinois struggled with foul trouble in that matchup, particularly Jakucionis, who fouled out after playing just nine minutes. Underwood and Illini fans were frustrated with several calls, believing they played a role in the outcome.

Now, Illinois gets a shot at redemption on its home court, and if Jakucionis can stay on the floor, the Illini could turn the tables on the Spartans.

Discover the Latest College Basketball Championship Odds with Expert Analysis and Data-Driven Insights

Key Matchups to Watch

• Kasparas Jakucionis vs. Michigan State’s Perimeter Defense – Jakucionis has been dominant lately, but the Spartans will look to contain his playmaking.
• Tomislav Ivisic vs. Michigan State’s Frontcourt – Ivisic’s size presents a major challenge for Michigan State, especially if he can stay healthy and productive.
• Michigan State’s Shooting vs. Illinois’ Defensive Pressure – If the Spartans can’t find their shooting touch, Illinois’ aggressive defense could create major problems.

Will Michigan State Rebound, or Can Illinois Keep Rolling?

With their season suddenly on shaky ground, Michigan State faces a must-win situation if they hope to stay in the Big Ten title race. Illinois, meanwhile, has a golden opportunity to pick up another quality win and solidify its own NCAA Tournament positioning.

Can the Spartans shake off their recent struggles and break their losing trend, or will Illinois’ surging young core hand Michigan State another tough defeat?

With the Big Ten standings tightening, this battle in Champaign carries major postseason implications. Expect a hard-fought, intense contest as these two conference rivals clash once again.