Kentucky Wildcats vs Troy Trojans Picks and Predictions March 21st 2025

Kentucky Vies to Clear Upset-Prone Tag; Underdog Asks ‘Why Not Troy?’

MILWAUKEE — First-year Kentucky head coach Mark Pope is no stranger to the Wildcats’ storied NCAA Tournament history. But he also knows recent first-round upsets have plagued the program.

The No. 3-seeded Wildcats face No. 14 seed Troy in the first round of the Midwest Region on Friday, looking to avoid another shocking early exit.

Stay Updated with NCAAB Game Results! – See how teams perform against the spread.

Kentucky Aims to Avoid Another Stumble

Kentucky (22-11) was a No. 3 seed last year when it was stunned by 14th-seeded Oakland, 80-76, after a historic three-point shooting display by Jack Gohlke. This time around, Pope has a March Madness hero of his own to rely on: San Diego State transfer Lamont Butler, who hit the buzzer-beater that sent the Aztecs to the 2023 national championship game. Butler will return to action after missing Kentucky’s SEC Tournament loss to Alabama.

“I’ve been blessed with playing in this event for my fifth year now. A lot of people can’t say that, so it’s definitely a blessing.” — Lamont Butler

The Wildcats enter the tournament boasting one of the most potent offenses in the country, averaging 85.3 points per game. Kentucky has made 317 three-pointers this season, already the third most in program history, and has hit 10 or more threes in 18 games.

Otega Oweh leads Kentucky with 16.2 points per game, while Butler and Koby Brea each average 11.5. However, the Wildcats will be without point guard Jaxson Robinson, who suffered a season-ending wrist injury in February.

Troy Embraces the Underdog Mentality

Troy (23-10) enters the tournament riding a six-game winning streak after capturing the Sun Belt Conference title with a 94-81 comeback victory over Arkansas State. The Trojans, making their third NCAA Tournament appearance, are eager to make history with a first-round upset.

“We know the challenge is very, very great. Anytime you’re a 14 seed, whoever you play is going to be super tough. Not an easy task, but every year it seems like one 14 team upsets a three-seed. Why not Troy?” — Scott Cross

Tayton Conerway, the Sun Belt Player of the Year, leads Troy with 14.3 points per game, while Myles Rigsby adds 12.0. The Trojans are a physical team, outrebounding opponents by 5.6 boards per game, with Thomas Dowd leading the way at 6.8 rebounds per contest.

Looking for the best March Madness picks?

Stay ahead of the game!

Sign Up!

Head coach Scott Cross emphasized the importance of slowing down Kentucky’s high-powered offense.

“We’ve got to take good shots, make sure we’re matched up and then make it difficult for them. They’re going to take 30 threes a game. We’ve got to make those 30 as difficult as possible.” — Scott Cross

Key Matchup Factors

Kentucky’s ability to control the pace and dictate the tempo will be critical. Troy thrives in a physical game, and if they can win the battle on the boards and limit open looks from deep, they could put pressure on the Wildcats.

For those analyzing college basketball betting strategies, this matchup presents an intriguing battle between an offensive juggernaut and a gritty underdog looking to shock the bracket.