Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Lsu Tigers Picks and Predictions March 12th 2025

Mississippi State Confident as They Face Struggling LSU in SEC Tournament Opener

Mississippi State enters the Southeastern Conference (SEC) tournament with renewed confidence, despite slipping out of the AP Top 25 rankings after an 11-week stay. The No. 10 seed Bulldogs (20-11) will take on No. 15 seed LSU (14-17) in the first round on Wednesday night in Nashville, Tennessee, aiming to extend their recent tournament success under head coach Chris Jans.

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Mississippi State’s Tournament Edge

The Bulldogs have two key advantages heading into this matchup:

1. Recent Success Against LSU – Mississippi State defeated LSU 81-69 on March 1, proving they have the upper hand in this matchup.
2. Strong Tournament Track Record – Under Coach Jans, MSU has won its tournament opener in both of the last two seasons. Last year, they defeated LSU and Tennessee before falling to Auburn. The previous year, they knocked off Florida in overtime before losing to Alabama.

“We’ll have a bounce in our step,” Jans said. “We’ve been there and done that. Our goal is going to be to go down there and to be playing for a championship.”

Mississippi State hasn’t played for an SEC tournament championship in 15 years, but this year’s team has shown promise, reaching as high as No. 14 in the AP rankings.

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Key Players to Watch for Mississippi State

• Josh Hubbard (18.3 PPG) – The freshman guard has been a standout performer, earning All-SEC second-team honors and providing a scoring spark throughout the season.
• Cameron Matthews – An anchor on defense, Matthews was named to the SEC All-Defensive Team, making him a crucial factor in shutting down LSU’s offense.

LSU’s Offensive Woes and Recent Struggles

On the other side, LSU limps into the tournament after a five-game losing streak, capped off by a 66-52 home loss to No. 22 Texas A&M on Saturday. The Tigers have struggled to generate consistent offense, ranking second-to-last in the SEC in scoring during conference play (67.0 PPG) and averaging just 61.8 PPG during their current skid.

Their loss to Mississippi State earlier this month highlighted those issues, as they struggled to keep pace with the Bulldogs’ offensive efficiency.

One bright spot for LSU has been Jordan Sears, a fifth-year senior who scored 21 points against Texas A&M despite battling an ankle injury. Reflecting on his last home game, Sears acknowledged the emotions of the moment but remained focused on the next challenge.

“But we still have a game to play,” Sears said.

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LSU’s Keys to Pulling Off an Upset

For LSU to have a chance at reversing its fortunes, the Tigers must:

• Find Offensive Rhythm Early – LSU’s shooting struggles have been costly, including a stretch against Texas A&M where they missed 15 of their first 16 shots in the second half.
• Support Sears with Secondary Scoring – Sears has carried a heavy load, but LSU needs additional production from key role players.
• Defend the Perimeter – Mississippi State thrives on three-point shooting and transition offense. Containing Hubbard and contesting outside shots will be crucial.

Mississippi State’s Path to Victory

• Stick to Their Defensive Identity – With Matthews leading the charge, MSU should aim to disrupt LSU’s already inconsistent offense.
• Utilize Hubbard’s Scoring Ability – If Hubbard gets hot early, it could put the game out of reach for the Tigers.
• Capitalize on LSU’s Mistakes – The Tigers have struggled with shooting slumps and turnovers, giving MSU opportunities to push the tempo and score in transition.

Final Thoughts: Mississippi State Poised for a Strong Start

Mississippi State enters this matchup with a clear edge in experience, momentum, and recent head-to-head success. LSU, meanwhile, must overcome its offensive struggles to avoid a quick exit from the tournament.

With their eyes set on a deep SEC tournament run, the Bulldogs have the confidence and tools to take care of business against an LSU team that has yet to find its rhythm. A win here could set the stage for Mississippi State to make a statement heading into the later rounds.