Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Texas Longhorns Picks and Predictions March 4th 2025

No. 25 Mississippi State Closes Home Schedule Against Struggling Texas

No. 25 Mississippi State has a prime opportunity to close out its home schedule on a high note when it hosts a reeling Texas team Tuesday night in Starkville, Mississippi.

The Bulldogs (20-9, 8-8 SEC) snapped a two-game losing streak with a convincing 81-69 victory over LSU on Saturday, bouncing back from a brutal 38-point loss at Alabama in their previous game. With the SEC Tournament approaching, head coach Chris Jans challenged his team to treat the LSU game as a must-win, and they responded with a dominant second half.

Meanwhile, Texas (16-13, 5-11 SEC) finds itself on the NCAA Tournament bubble after losing six of its last seven games, including a lifeless 83-67 home loss to Georgia on Saturday. The Longhorns are desperate for a win, as anything short of a strong finish could leave them out of March Madness altogether.

Mississippi State Riding Hubbard’s Hot Hand

Mississippi State’s offense came alive in the second half against LSU, shooting 64 percent from the field to turn a tight game into a comfortable win.

Sophomore guard Josh Hubbard led the charge, dropping 30 points, marking his 24th career 20-point game. Hubbard has been a steady presence for the Bulldogs, starting 43 straight games and evolving into a complete offensive weapon.

“Being a complete player is what I worked on in the offseason,” Hubbard said. “Just getting downhill, being aggressive, putting some pressure on the defense.”

Hubbard’s performance helped Mississippi State clinch its third consecutive 20-win season, but the Bulldogs aren’t done yet. With two regular-season games remaining, they have a chance to strengthen their resume before the SEC Tournament.

Texas Running Out of Time to Save Its Season

Texas entered SEC play with NCAA Tournament hopes, but six losses in seven games have put them in serious danger of missing out on March Madness.

The Longhorns’ latest loss to Georgia was a new low, as they fell behind by 27 points early in the second half and never mounted a real comeback.

Head coach Rodney Terry admitted his team’s lack of energy from the start was a major problem.

“We didn’t get the kind of start we wanted to get off to, especially from an offensive standpoint,” Terry said. “I feel like we let that dictate a little bit of our defensive effort to start the ballgame.”

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The Longhorns’ offensive struggles were glaring, especially from star freshman Tre Johnson (20.6 PPG), who was held to 12 points and did not attempt a shot in the second half.

Forward Devon Pryor stressed that Texas can’t afford slow starts anymore.

“We can’t be having these first-half lapses and then decide to turn it up in the second half,” Pryor said. “We need to just start the game off strong every time.”

With a home finale against Oklahoma looming, Texas likely needs to win both remaining regular-season games to have a real shot at an NCAA Tournament bid.

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Key Matchups to Watch

Josh Hubbard vs. Texas’ Perimeter Defense – Hubbard is coming off a 30-point explosion and could have another big night if the Longhorns fail to defend the three-point line.

Tre Johnson vs. Mississippi State’s Defense – Johnson is the SEC’s leading scorer, but he was shut down in the second half against Georgia. He must be more aggressive for Texas to have a chance.

Mississippi State’s Inside Presence vs. Texas’ Rebounding – The Bulldogs dominated LSU inside, and Texas must hold its own in the paint to avoid getting overwhelmed.

Who Has the Edge?

Mississippi State is playing at home, has more momentum, and has a hot scorer in Hubbard. Meanwhile, Texas is in a free fall, struggling to find consistent energy and execution.

The Longhorns’ NCAA Tournament hopes are on the line, but unless they show significant improvement, Mississippi State should capitalize on their struggles and close out their home schedule with a win.

Will Mississippi State build momentum heading into the SEC Tournament, or will Texas find a way to save its season? The answer awaits Tuesday night in Starkville.