Saint Mary’s Gaels vs Gonzaga Bulldogs Picks and Predictions March 11th 2025

Saint Mary’s Gaels vs Gonzaga Bulldogs March 11th 2025

Making on a bet on this NCAA game featuring the Bulldogs versus the Gaels? Tip off is at at 9:00 ET, and you can watch it all unfold on ESPN. The game will be played at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, NV. Gonzaga is favored by -3.5 in this West Coast conference matchup the against Saint Mary’s. The over/under for the game is set at 137.5 points.

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Bulldogs vs. Gaels Key Information

• Sport: CBB
• Teams: Gonzaga Bulldogs at Saint Mary’s Gaels
• Where: Las Vegas at Orleans Arena
• Date: Tuesday, March 11th
• Betting Odds GNZG -3.5, GNZG -162 | STMRY +133 O/U 137.5

The Bulldogs Can Win If…

Gonzaga Bulldogs Recent Game/Games

Gonzaga improved to 24-8 on the season with an 85-76 win over San Francisco on Monday. The Bulldogs were -15 favorites at home but didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game hit 161, going over the pre-game line of 157.5.

After trailing 37-35 at halftime, Gonzaga turned things around in the second half, outscoring the Dons 50-39 to secure the win.

Gonzaga put up 85 points in their last game, shooting 44.4% from the field and hitting just 23.5% from three-point range (4/17). Their effective field goal percentage was 47.6%, with a strong showing inside, hitting 52.2% of their two-point attempts (24/46).

At the free-throw line, the Bulldogs connected on 78.1% of their shots (25/32), and they dished out 20 assists. Graham Ike and Malik Thomas each scored 27 points, with Ike shooting 69.2% from the field and Thomas hitting 5 of 8 from beyond the arc (62.5%).

Gonzaga’s defense gave up 76 points in their last game, with opponents shooting 44% from the field on 28 of 63 attempts. Inside the arc, they allowed 52% shooting, as the other team went 24 for 46 on two-point shots.

From three-point range, Gonzaga held their opponents to just 23% shooting, with only 4 made threes on 17 attempts. However, they sent the other team to the free-throw line 32 times, where they converted 25 for 78%. Gonzaga also gave up 9 offensive rebounds.

• In their last three road games, Gonzaga has averaged 91 points per game while allowing 71. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-0 while going 3-0 vs. the spread.
• The Bulldogs have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread.
• Over their last three games, the Bulldogs have an over/under record of 3-0 and are 2-1 vs. the spread.

The Gaels Can Win If…

Saint Mary’s Gaels Recent Game/Games

Saint Mary’s improved to 27-4 on the season with a 74-59 home win over Pepperdine on Monday. The Gaels entered the game as -19 favorites but didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game were 133, just under the O/U line of 137.

Saint Mary’s took control early, leading 39-29 at halftime. In the 2nd half, they scored 35 points while allowing 30, maintaining their lead to secure the win.

Saint Mary’s put up 74 points in their last game, shooting 50% from the field. They struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 2 of 13 attempts for 15.4%, but excelled inside, connecting on 60% of their two-point shots.

Paulius Murauskas was nearly perfect, shooting 5 of 6 and grabbing 10 rebounds. Moe Odum led the team with 19 points, hitting 2 of 5 from three-point range.

Saint Mary’s Gaels gave up 59 points in their last game, allowing the opposing team to shoot 50% from the field. Most of the damage came from inside the arc, where they hit 27 of 45 two-point attempts, good for 60%.

From three-point range, the Gaels held their opponents to just 2 of 13 shooting, a 15% success rate. They also sent the other team to the line 24 times, where they made 14 free throws, shooting 58%. Saint Mary’s allowed 15 offensive rebounds in the game.

• Saint Mary’s has played well in their previous five home games, going 4-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 65 points per game while allowing 58. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• Through their last five games as the underdog, the Gaels have an ATS record of 5-0 and a straight up mark of 5-0.
• In their last three games, the Gaels have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 0-3 vs. the spread.

The Lean

The Gaels come in as the underdog at +3.5, making them our top choice on the point spread. We not only expect them to cover the spread but also believe they have a strong chance of winning the game outright, especially if you’re aiming for a higher moneyline payout.

As for the over/under, the the line is currently at 137.5, and our model projects the Bulldogs and Gaels to reach a combined total of 147 points. Our bet is on taking the over.

Saint Mary’s Aims to Defend WCC Tournament Crown

No. 19 Saint Mary’s has already secured a spot in the NCAA Tournament, but the Gaels are determined to add another West Coast Conference championship to their resume. The top-seeded Gaels will face second-seeded Gonzaga in Las Vegas on Tuesday night in a highly anticipated WCC title game.

This will be the fourth consecutive WCC Tournament championship matchup between these two programs. Gonzaga won in 2021 and 2022 before Saint Mary’s ended the streak with a 69-60 victory last season. The two teams have met in the title game six times in the past seven years, a testament to their dominance in the conference.

Gonzaga coach Mark Few emphasized the significance of his program’s consistency in the WCC, as the Bulldogs are making their 28th consecutive appearance in the conference championship game.

“Some of these streaks are just crazy,” Few said after Monday’s semifinal win. “To make it 28 straight years is unbelievable. It’s not as unbelievable as making the (NCAA) Tournament 27 times, but it’s right up there.”

Saint Mary’s Looking for a Season Sweep

Saint Mary’s has already beaten Gonzaga twice this season, winning 62-58 at home on February 1 and 74-67 on the road in Spokane on February 22. The Gaels have won four of the past five meetings between the teams and will aim to complete a season sweep in the championship game.

The Gaels reached the final after a dominant 74-59 semifinal win over ninth-seeded Pepperdine. Paulius Murauskas recorded his 13th double-double of the season, finishing with 15 points and 10 rebounds. Augustas Marciulionis, the two-time WCC Player of the Year, contributed 15 points, seven rebounds, and five assists. Saint Mary’s controlled the rebounding battle, holding a 45-22 advantage.

“We just wore them down on the boards,” coach Randy Bennett said. “I thought we played well until the last six minutes.”

Three Saint Mary’s seniors—Marciulionis, Luke Barrett, and Mitchell Saxen—are making history as they become the first players in program history to appear in four consecutive NCAA Tournaments.

Gonzaga Seeks to Avoid Third Loss to Saint Mary’s

Gonzaga has secured a place in the NCAA Tournament but is looking to avoid being swept by Saint Mary’s this season. The Bulldogs advanced to the WCC final with an 85-76 victory over third-seeded San Francisco on Monday.

Graham Ike led the way with 27 points and 10 rebounds, while Khalif Battle added 21 points. Ike has played well against the Gaels this season, averaging 21.5 points on 17-of-30 shooting in the two matchups.

“We got to play great defense and keep them off the offensive boards,” Ike said when asked about the upcoming rematch.

Battle acknowledged Saint Mary’s ability to slow the pace of the game and emphasized the importance of Gonzaga imposing its up-tempo style.

“Offensively, everybody knows the Zags can score with the best of them,” Battle said. “I’m excited about the matchup. I’m looking forward to this, and now it’s time to get the job done.”

Keys to the Game

Saint Mary’s Must

• Control the pace and prevent Gonzaga from turning the game into a high-scoring affair
• Win the rebounding battle, as they did against Pepperdine
• Get a strong offensive performance from Mikey Lewis, who scored 16 and 18 points in the two previous meetings against Gonzaga

Gonzaga Must

• Push the tempo and create transition scoring opportunities
• Defend the three-point line and limit Saint Mary’s perimeter shooting
• Get another dominant performance from Graham Ike while also receiving scoring support from other key players

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Final Prediction

With both teams already assured a spot in the NCAA Tournament, the WCC title and potential seeding implications will be the primary motivation.

Saint Mary’s has controlled the tempo in the previous two meetings and has been able to dictate the game with its strong defense and rebounding. Gonzaga will need to find a way to disrupt that rhythm and turn the contest into a high-scoring battle.

This game should be close throughout, but Saint Mary’s ability to execute late in games gives them the edge. Expect another tight contest, with the Gaels pulling away in the final minutes to secure their second straight WCC Tournament title.

Prediction: Saint Mary’s 70, Gonzaga 66