Saint Mary’s Gaels vs Pepperdine Waves Picks and Predictions March 10th 2025

Saint Mary’s Gaels vs Pepperdine Waves March 10th 2025

Looking to win big? The Waves and Gaels face off at 9:00 ET on ESPN. The Gaels are hosting the game at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, NV. This West Coast conference matchup has an over/under of 136.5 points, and Saint Mary’s is favored to win by -19.5 at home vs. Pepperdine.

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Waves vs. Gaels Key Information

• Sport: CBB
• Teams: Pepperdine Waves at Saint Mary’s Gaels
• Where: Las Vegas at Orleans Arena
• Date: Monday, March 10th
• Betting Odds STMRY -19.5, PEPP +1391 | STMRY -4750 O/U 136.5

The Waves Can Win If…

Pepperdine Waves Recent Game/Games

The Waves improved to 13-21 on the season with a 78-76 win over Santa Clara on Sunday. Pepperdine was a +15.5 point underdog, but they not only covered the spread, they pulled off the upset.

Trailing 40-36 at halftime, Pepperdine outscored Santa Clara 42-36 in the 2nd half. The total points for the game was 154, just under the O/U line of 158.5.

Pepperdine’s offense was clicking in their last game, as they shot 50.8% from the field, with an effective field goal percentage of 57.4%. They were particularly strong inside, hitting 62.2% of their two-point attempts, while connecting on 33.3% from beyond the arc, making 8 threes. The Waves also shot 72.7% from the free-throw line, going 8 for 11.

Moe Odum dished out 13 assists to go along with his 19 points, while Stefan Todorovic also added 19 points. Tyeree Bryan hit 4 of 6 threes, finishing with 18 points, and Brenton Knapper contributed 17 points, shooting 66.7% overall and 60.0% from deep. Pepperdine finished with 22 assists as a team, with 7 offensive rebounds.

Pepperdine’s defense gave up 76 points in their last game, with opponents shooting 40% from the field. They allowed 14 two-point field goals on 30 attempts, a 46% success rate.

From beyond the arc, Pepperdine’s defense saw 34 three-point attempts, with 12 makes, resulting in a 35% shooting percentage. They also sent the other team to the line 16 times, where they hit 12 free throws, or 75%. Pepperdine allowed 15 offensive rebounds.

• Pepperdine has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 78 points per game while allowing 80. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
• The Waves have played well in their last three games as the betting underdog, going 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread.
• Over their last three games, the Waves have an over/under record of 2-1 and are 3-0 vs. the spread.

The Gaels Can Win If…

Saint Mary’s Gaels Recent Game/Games

Saint Mary’s improved to 26-4 this season with a 74-64 home win over Oregon State on Saturday. The Gaels were -12.5 favorites going into the game but didn’t cover the spread.

Leading 34-33 at halftime, Saint Mary’s pulled away in the 2nd half, outscoring the Beavers 40-31. The total points for the game were 138, surpassing the O/U line of 130.5.

Saint Mary’s put up 74 points in their last game, shooting 40.4% from the field and 40.9% from three-point range (9/22). They hit 19 of 23 free throws, good for 82.6%, and grabbed 20 offensive rebounds, finishing with 13 assists.

Augustas Marciulionis led the way with 25 points and 7 assists, shooting 58.3% overall and 66.7% from deep (4/6). Luke Barrett added 13 points and 10 rebounds, while Mitchell Saxen also pulled down 11 boards.

Saint Mary’s Gaels gave up 64 points while allowing the opposing team to shoot 40% from the field, with 23 made baskets on 57 attempts. Defensively, they held their opponents to 40% shooting from two-point range, with 14 made shots on 35 attempts.

From beyond the arc, the Gaels allowed 9 threes on 22 attempts, for a 40% shooting percentage. They also sent the other team to the free-throw line 23 times, where they made 19 free throws, shooting 82%. Saint Mary’s gave up 20 offensive rebounds in the game.

• The Gaels are 3-2 ATS in their last home games and 4-1 straight-up.
• Over the team’s last three games as the favorite, the Gaels struggled vs the spread going just 0-3. However, they still had a straight up mark of 3-0.
• In their last five games, the Gaels have an over/under record of 2-3 and are 2-3 vs. the spread.

The Lean

When looking to get a point-spread pick down in this Gaels vs. Gaels game, our recommendation is to take the Gaels at -19.5. Despite our model showing the Gaels winning 77-71, we like Waves as our point-spread pick.

Regarding the over/under, the current line is set at 136.5, and our model predicts the Waves and Gaels to score a combined 148 points. We recommend betting on the over.

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Pepperdine Ready for Next WCC Tournament Challenge: No. 21 Saint Mary’s

Top-seeded Saint Mary’s is well-rested as it enters its first contest of the West Coast Conference tournament in Las Vegas. With the WCC protecting its regular-season champion, the No. 21-ranked Gaels (27-4) will return to action Monday in the semifinals after an eight-day layoff.

Pepperdine Riding Tournament Momentum

The ninth-seeded Waves (13-21) have taken the long road to the semifinals, playing their fourth game in four days after wins over Portland, Oregon State, and Santa Clara. Pepperdine had lost five straight games and eight of nine entering the tournament but has found a way to keep its season alive.

“We say find a way or find an excuse. We definitely found a way today,” Pepperdine forward Stefan Todorovic said after Sunday’s 78-76 win. “We’re here to stay. That’s what’s happening. … We’re still playing.”

Saint Mary’s Looking to Shake Off Rust

Meanwhile, Saint Mary’s last played on March 1, securing a 74-64 home win over Oregon State. With a long break between games, head coach Randy Bennett emphasized the importance of maintaining focus.

“You’ve got to kind of stay in idle right now. You can’t check out. It’s not spring break. It’s not vacation,” Bennett said. “You can’t shut it down and then two days before the tournament, (say), ‘Hey, you’ve got to get ready to play.’ You’ve got to try to keep getting better without wearing ’em out.”

Saint Mary’s has already cemented its place in the NCAA Tournament, with key players like Augustas Marciulionis, Mitchell Saxen, and Luke Barrett set to make history as the first Gaels to play in four straight NCAA tourneys.

“What they have done has never been done,” Bennett said. “That says it all right there.”

Can Pepperdine Keep the Run Going?

The Waves trailed by 13 points early against Santa Clara but stormed back for a stunning upset. Moe Odum has been instrumental in Pepperdine’s success, posting a double-double in each tournament game. He is averaging 20.3 points and 11.3 assists, including a 31-point performance against Portland.

Despite Pepperdine’s resilience, head coach Ed Schilling acknowledges the massive challenge ahead.

“You need energy against Saint Mary’s, but you need a whole lot of other stuff vs. Saint Mary’s,” Schilling said. “They’ve got experience and they’ve got a whole lot of talented players. But you look at our guys, and they don’t look tired.”

With Saint Mary’s having dominated both regular-season meetings—winning by 24 and 30 points—Pepperdine will need another inspired performance to continue its Cinderella run.

The Road to the WCC Championship

The second semifinal on Monday will feature second-seeded Gonzaga against third-seeded San Francisco, with the winners meeting in Tuesday’s WCC title game.

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