Saint Mary’s Gaels vs Vanderbilt Commodores Picks and Predictions March 21st 2025

Vanderbilt Takes Aim at Stingy Saint Mary’s Defense

East Region opponents Saint Mary’s and Vanderbilt clash in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday in Cleveland, featuring contrasting styles but the same goal: reaching the second weekend of March Madness for the first time in over a decade.

Saint Mary’s Brings Elite Defense and Experience

Seventh-seeded Saint Mary’s (28-5) enters the tournament as one of the nation’s top defensive teams. Head coach Randy Bennett, in his 23rd season, has built a program defined by discipline, experience, and suffocating defense. The Gaels are making their fourth straight NCAA Tournament appearance and their 11th since 2005.

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Saint Mary’s has not reached the Sweet 16 since 2010 but looks to change that with a lineup anchored by senior leaders Mitchell Saxen, Augustas Marciulionis, and Luke Barrett. The trio combines for 34.7 points per game, while Marciulionis ranks seventh in the tournament field with 6.1 assists per game.

“The leadership from our three seniors has been incredible — as good as any three seniors we’ve had.” — Randy Bennett

The Gaels’ defense is their calling card, ranking fifth in Division I by allowing just 60.7 points per game. Opponents shoot just 31.2% from three-point range against them, while Saxen (1.3 steals, 1.3 blocks per game) and Marciulionis (1.4 steals per game) help key their defensive efforts.

Saint Mary’s spent much of the season ranked in the Top 25 and won the West Coast Conference regular-season title, defeating perennial power Gonzaga twice before falling in a 58-51 battle in the WCC Tournament championship game.

Vanderbilt Enters as an Offensive Powerhouse

Vanderbilt (20-12) returns to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017, led by first-year head coach Mark Byington, who guided James Madison to the second round last March. The Commodores are seeking their first Sweet 16 appearance since 2007.

Byington rebuilt Vanderbilt’s roster through the transfer portal, with Jason Edwards (17.0 ppg), Tyler Nickel (10.5 ppg), and Devin McGlockton (10.4 ppg) leading the way.

“We’re fortunate to be in. We knew we were a tournament team from the beginning of the year, but we had some ups and downs. But that comes from playing in a league like this.” — Jason Edwards

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Vanderbilt plays an uptempo, offensive-minded style, ranking 48th in scoring at 79.6 points per game. The challenge will be breaking through Saint Mary’s defensive structure and pace control.

Key Matchup Factors

The contrast in styles sets up a fascinating first-round matchup. Vanderbilt thrives in high-scoring games, while Saint Mary’s dictates tempo with lockdown defense. If the Commodores can speed up the game and find their shooting rhythm, they could put the Gaels on upset alert.

For those following college basketball predictions, this matchup will hinge on whether Vanderbilt’s high-powered offense can break through Saint Mary’s disciplined defense.