Ucla Bruins vs Utah State Aggies Picks and Predictions March 20th 2025

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Retooled UCLA Out to Put Clamps on Utah State

UCLA’s signature defense will be tested as the No. 7-seed Bruins face No. 10-seed Utah State in a Midwest Region first-round matchup on Thursday in Lexington, Ky.

Bruins Lean on Defensive Identity

The Bruins (22-10) boast college basketball’s most storied history with 11 national championships and return to the NCAA Tournament after missing out last season. Their success this year has been fueled by a defensive-first mentality under head coach Mick Cronin.

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“This is why I came to UCLA.” — Tyler Bilodeau

Bilodeau, a transfer from Oregon State, leads UCLA with 13.6 points per game but has struggled with inconsistency down the stretch. He is joined by fellow transfers Eric Dailey Jr. (11.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg), Skyy Clark (8.0 ppg, 2.8 apg), and Kobe Johnson (8.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 3.0 apg) in a revamped lineup that helped UCLA rise as high as No. 15 in the AP Top 25 this season.

UCLA’s defensive intensity is its hallmark, ranking 27th in Division I by allowing just 65.7 points per game. The Bruins force turnovers on 22.8% of opponent possessions, ranking seventh nationally in turnover generation. Johnson leads the team with 1.7 steals per game, while Clark and Dailey each add 1.3 steals.

“I came here to win, to go deep in the tournament. So the fact that we’re finally here, we’re going to do our best to take the opportunity.” — Skyy Clark

Utah State’s High-Powered Offense Looks to Break Through

Utah State (26-7) provides a stark contrast to UCLA’s defensive approach, ranking 30th nationally in scoring at 80.9 points per game. The Aggies emphasize unselfish play, ranking among the top teams in assist rate with 61.1% of their made field goals coming off assists.

“They were taking a little bit too long. But I like the matchup. This is the time that we play for.” — Ian Martinez

Martinez leads Utah State with 16.8 points per game, while Mason Falslev adds 14.9. The duo combines for nearly four three-pointers per game, with Dexter Akanno adding another 1.5 made threes on an impressive 43.9% shooting from beyond the arc.

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Utah State finished third in the Mountain West Conference and secured an at-large bid despite falling to eventual champion Colorado State in the conference tournament. The Aggies seek their second consecutive first-round win after defeating TCU in last year’s tournament before falling to national runner-up Purdue.

Key Matchup Factors

UCLA’s ability to force turnovers will be critical, as Utah State averages just 10.7 turnovers per game. If the Bruins can disrupt the Aggies’ offensive flow, it could swing the game in their favor. However, Utah State’s balanced scoring attack and ability to stretch defenses with three-point shooting make them a dangerous opponent.

Those analyzing college basketball expert picks should watch whether UCLA’s defense can dictate the tempo or if Utah State’s efficient offense can break through.

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