The Best NFL Parlays For Week 18

The NFL Playoffs have arrived and football fans are in for an exciting weekend of action. The six Wild Card games kickoff on Saturday, January 11, with two highly anticipated AFC showdowns. Sunday will feature three more matchups including two of our NFL parlay picks.

The sixth and final Wild Card game will take place on Monday Night Football, which has become an annual tradition since 2021. This weekend, the MNF Wild Card game will feature the Minnesota Vikings battling the Los Angeles Rams. Although this contest didn’t make our NFL parlay picks of the week, it will still be a compelling game to watch.

Our first two NFL parlay picks take place on Saturday in the opening games of Super Wild Card Weekend. We like both road teams in these matchups. However, there’s one difference between the two picks.

In the first Wild Card game, we’re riding the lightning bolt by taking the Los Angeles Chargers to beat the Houston Texans. LA has looked great heading into the postseason, while Houston looks like the worst team in the Playoffs.

Our second Saturday parlay pick is the Pittsburgh Steelers. We’re hammering the +10 points that they’re getting against the Baltimore Ravens.  

Our two highest confidence plays for Wild Card Weekend take place on Sunday as we’re jumping on the home teams in the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles.

The Bills are hosting the Denver Broncos and the Eagles are hosting the Green Bay Packers. Both teams are healthy favorites and have favorable matchups that we’ll breakdown in greater detail below.

With that said, let’s dive deeper into our NFL parlay picks for Super Wild Card Weekend and see what our free NFL parlay card is paying out this week. 

NFL Picks and Parlays

Monitor the NFL odds throughout the week. As the odds change, the parlay payouts will change as well. 

Team	Odds	Payout Per Leg	Confidence Level
Buffalo Bills	-450	NA	5/5
Philadelphia Eagles	-230	$75.36	5/5
Los Angeles Chargers	-160	$184.96	4/5
Pittsburgh Steelers +10	-110	$444.01	4/5

The Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills are the biggest betting favorites of the Wild Card Round. We love the Bills matchup, but think that oddsmakers got the lines wrong for the Ravens vs. Steelers game. Additionally, because this is the Playoffs, we are getting much higher value with our Wild Card parlay picks.

NFL Parlay Picks

Our weekly NFL parlay picks are based on order of confidence. Additionally, you can choose any combination of these NFL football picks for your own parlay card or use them all for the total payout listed above. 

NFL Parlay Pick 1: Broncos (+350) vs. Bills (-450)

The Denver Broncos secured the 7^th seed in the AFC Playoffs after winning on the final weekend of the regular season. Denver exceeded all preseason expectations. Not only did they finish with a winning record (10-7) but they also made the Playoffs. Nobody had Denver in the postseason on their NFL bingo card.

The Buffalo Bills (13-4) also exceeded expectations this year. Most so-called pundits and many sportsbooks thought that the Bills would take a step back and that the Dolphins or Jets would win the AFC East. That did not happen. In fact, Buffalo was the first team to win their division this season.

The Bills were able to clinch the #2 seed in the AFC and earned at least one home game. They can earn a second home Playoff game if they beat the Broncos. And, we definitely believe that Buffalo will win.

As of this writing, there are many pundits putting Buffalo on upset alert. However, that’s usually good news for us because we can find better value. Yet, the oddsmakers actually feel the same way that we do.

So, although we’re not going to take Buffalo on an individual wager due to the lack of betting value, the Bills make for the perfect parlay pick and our highest confidence rating for Wild Card Weekend.

Why We Like The Buffalo Bills?

Much is being made about Denver’s defense and how great they are. Certainly, the Broncos do have a ton of defensive talent. However, a lot of their success this season came against losing teams.

If you don’t include the Chiefs, who rested all of their starters on both sides of the ball in Week 18, then the Broncos only beat one winning team this year and that was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3. Otherwise, Denver was 1-7 on the season against teams with winning records.

In their last two losses, Denver gave up 32 ppg. In their biggest loss of the season, they allowed 41 points against the Ravens. So, this elite defense seems to have more cracks in their foundation than what the so-called pundits believe.

Denver allows just 96.4 ypg on the ground which is the 3^rd best in the league. However, Buffalo averages 131.2 ypg and I believe they will come close to this mark in large part due to Josh Allen running the ball.

In big games, Allen ran more. Just think back to the Chiefs, 49ers and Lions games where Allen made several big time plays with his legs. He will be a real threat out of the backfield this weekend.

Denver has an elite corner in Surtain, but the defense does allow 220.7 passing yards per game and Buffalo puts up 227.9 ypg through the air. Plus, Buffalo spreads the ball around and doesn’t rely on just one player. So, Surtain’s shutdown coverage will not have as big of an impact.

Also, Denver led the league in sacks. Yet, Buffalo gave up the fewest sacks this season. So, when you combine strong offensive line play with Allen escaping the pocket, then Denver’s vaunted pass rush will be nullified.

On the flip side, Denver has an average offense according to the stats. Buffalo’s biggest weakness has been stopping the run as they give up the 12^th most yards at 115.5 ypg. However, Denver only averages 112.2 ypg on the ground and they don’t feature an elite rusher. Once again, this boosts Buffalo’s chances.

Lastly, Bo Nix has been great this season. However, the rookie QB is playing in his first Playoff game and it’s on the road. Denver was 4-5 on the road this season and Nix played worse on the road than at home.

Buffalo’s defense creates turnovers and applies a bend, don’t break approach at times. So, I expect them to force turnovers, stop the run, and stifle this Denver offense in front of their wild Bills mafia fans.

Buffalo wins by at least a touchdown.

NFL Parlay Pick 2: Packers (+190) vs. Eagles (-230)

The Green Bay Packers showed that they belong in the Playoffs for a second straight year after producing a Top 10 offense this season. They finished 11-6 and were Playoff contenders all season long. Adding Josh Jacobs paid off in many ways.

In fact, other than King Henry and Saquon Barkley, who we’ll talk about shortly, Jacobs was the best running back addition of the year.

The Philadelphia Eagles locked up the #2 seed after going 14-3 on the year and winning the NFC East division. This was not a surprise for someone like me as I picked the Eagles to win the NFC Championship in the preseason, midseason, and the start of the postseason.

The addition of Barkley took this offense from an 8 to 10 out of 10. In fact, his 2,000 rushing yards on the season only proved what all of us Barkley fans have thought since he took over the backfield at Penn State – he’s the best running back in football.

Look how Jacobs excelled on a better team as did McCaffrey after leaving the Panthers a few years ago. King Henry is doing the same as he always has, but his success is far more impactful now than with the Titans.

Like the Bills, the Eagles have also earned our highest confidence rating for the Wild Card Round.

Why We Like The Philadelphia Eagles?

Let’s start with the Packers’ woes coming into this weekend’s Playoff game. First, Jordan Love is banged up. Second, they lost their deep threat in Christian Watson with a knee injury.

Furthermore, Green Bay went 3-5 against winning teams this year and lost to the Eagles to kick off the season in Brazil. The victories they had against winning teams were against the Rams when they didn’t have Kupp and Nacua, against the Texans who are not good, and the Seahawks who were decent.

So, even with these three victories over winning teams, they weren’t that convincing. However, putting an exclamation point on this argument, the Packers went 0-5 against the upper echelon of the NFC in the Eagles, Vikings and Lions.

Philly comes into the Playoffs with the best and most balanced team alongside the Ravens. The Eagles are second in rushing and have a Top 10 QB, Top 5 WR, and an explosive passing attack that should exploit the Packers’ secondary.

And, the minute that Green Bay doesn’t commit to stopping the run, that’s when Barkley will make them pay. He’s also going to be a threat out of the backfield. Simply put, Green Bay won’t be able to stop this offense.

Additionally, the Packers won’t be able to find as much success against the Eagles elite defense that allows only 17.8 ppg which is the second fewest points given up this season. They also allow the fewest total yards per game (278.4 ypg), third lowest 3rd down conversion (35.55%), and the third lowest TDs per game (1.9).

Green Bay will have a tough time moving the ball and putting up points against Philly. I see the Eagles pulling away in the second half and winning convincingly in front of the Philly faithful. The Eagles went 8-1 in home games this year.

NFL Parlay Pick 3: Chargers (-160) vs. Texans (+135)

I love what Jim Harbaugh did with the Los Angeles Chargers. He turned this franchise around in less than a year and helped get them back to the Playoffs. Additionally, this team has the ingredients for Playoff football which is a strong running game and a Top 5 defense.

I’m not a believe in the Houston Texans. In fact, I think they’re the worst team in the AFC Playoffs. Actually, I think they’re the worst Playoff squad in the 14-team field. If it weren’t for playing in arguably the worst NFL division, Houston would not have made the Playoffs.

A big reason why I think they’re so bad is the injuries they’ve experienced. This team is loaded with talent, but they will be without Dell and Diggs who both suffered season ending injuries. Additionally, the offensive line has played poorly and CJ Stroud looks like a shell of himself.

It should also be noted that the Texans went 1-5 against teams with winning records. They Beat the Bills in Week 5 by a field goal and Buffalo almost came back to win the game. Additionally, the Bills were without numerous starters on both sides of the ball.

On the flip side, the Chargers have the ingredients to beat the Texans in Houston. JK Dobbins is back to lead the rushing attack, the defense is healthy too, and QB Justin Herbert is playing his best football heading into the postseason. Let’s break this down further.

Why We Like The Los Angeles Chargers?

Many of Houston’s best performances came against teams with losing records. And, yet, that still wasn’t anything to brag about.

I see the Chargers giving a healthy dose of Dobbins running the ball and out of the backfield. Additionally, Herbert can extend plays with his legs and the Texans have had problems against QBs that can run the ball.

On the flip side, Houston’s offense will have a tough time versus this Chargers defense. Specifically, LA allows a league low 17.7 ppg and Houston only averages 21.9 ppg. Furthermore, the Chargers are 8^th in sacks, while Houston gives up the 8^th most sacks in the league. Stroud is going to be under heavy pressure from Bosa and Mack.

Lastly, I also give the edge to Harbaugh and his coaching staff that have far more Playoff experience than Houston’s staff does. Chargers win by more than a field goal in a low scoring game.

NFL Parlay Pick 4: Pittsburgh Steelers +10 (-110)

If there is any team that can beat the Baltimore Ravens, outside of the Chiefs and Bills, it’s the Pittsburgh Steelers. Sure, the Steelers backed into the Playoffs after losing four games in a row but let’s not dismiss the teams they lost to.

Pittsburgh lost to the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs and a red-hot Bengals. Yet, they only lost by two points to Cincy and are getting back their key players that missed time due to injuries over the last four to five weeks.

Baltimore won four games in a row and come into the Playoffs as one of the most feared teams in the NFL. However, let’s not act like they were beating great teams.

Over that stretch, the Ravens beat the Browns and Giants who are two of the worst teams in the league. Additionally, they beat a wounded Steelers team at home and a terrible Houston team that shouldn’t even be in the Playoffs.

Now that the table is set, let’s breakdown why we like the Steelers to cover 10 points in this Wild Card game.

Why We Like The Pittsburgh Steelers?

Pittsburgh has beat the Ravens in eight of the last 10 games. Additionally, the Steelers beat the Ravens just two months ago before injuries derailed them. Additionally, the Ravens also lost to the Eagles five games ago which shows that they’re aren’t as elite as some people think.

The Steelers are the one team that knows how to play the Ravens. More importantly, they know how to limit and beat Lamar Jackson who has been stellar this season.  

In their 18-16 win over Baltimore, which was the fewest number of points that the Ravens put up all year, Pittsburgh held Jackson and company to just 207 passing yards. Additionally, they held King Henry to just 65 rushing yards, which was his lowest total since Week 1 of the season.

Lamar is 2-4 against the Steelers all-time. He’s putting up his worst numbers versus an opponent when playing Pittsburgh. Sure, the Ravens had a good game in their Week 16 victory over a depleted Steelers team.

But keep in mind that Derrick Henry was the biggest reason why as he finished with 162 rushing yards. Jackson finished with 207 passing yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT. Pittsburgh didn’t have their most dynamic weapon in receiver George Pickens.

In their first game, where Pittsburgh won, Pickens caught eight passes for 89 yards. More importantly, he helped the Steelers dominate in time of possession, forced the Ravens to not stack the box to stop the run, and allowed other weapons to get open due to the double coverage.

I see a similar outcome this weekend. I believe Pittsburgh will cover the points. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they won the game outright.

NFL Parlay Total Payout

If you decide to take all four legs of our parlay, a $100 wager will net you $444.01 in winnings and a total payout of $544.01.

The Bills and Eagles are our two top convictions this weekend. They both have favorable matchups and are playing at home where they went a combined 16-1 on the season.

The Chargers play on the road against the Texans, who I believe are the worst team in the Playoffs right now. They’re playing awful football on offense and have key injuries that they won’t be able to overcome.

Last, but not least, I see the Steelers shocking the oddsmakers and so-called experts. Pittsburgh plays Baltimore tough and have won eight of the last 10 games. They already beat the Ravens this season and Lamar is just 2-4 all-time versus Pittsburgh.