The Best NFL Player Props for Week 16

Just three weeks remain in the 2024 NFL regular season, and Week 16 is shaping up to be a wild one. Sure, there are a few lackluster matchups on the schedule, but we’ve also got some games with serious playoff implications to keep things interesting. Plus, this week brings us a pair of Saturday games now that the college football regular season is in the rearview mirror. More days with NFL football? Absolutely—who’s complaining?

Let’s talk NFL player props. I’ve highlighted a few bets that stand out ahead of this weekend’s slate of games. Prop betting is one of the best ways to find an edge in the market, so let’s dive in and see if we can cash in on some of that sweet, sweet green. This slate includes bets across all skill positions and features lines with plenty of value. Below, I’ll analyze each prop and explain why they’re worth considering.

NFL Player Prop Odds

NFL Player Props Today

These Week 16 player props are based on trends, matchups, and opportunities to find value in the odds via online sportsbooks.

Drake Maye – Over 203.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Matchup: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

Drake Maye might not be making headlines, but the rookie has performed admirably for the New England Patriots since stepping in for Jacoby Brissett. While New England’s skill position group isn’t exactly loaded, there’s reason for optimism if you’re a Pats fan. However, this week presents a steep challenge, as the Patriots are two-touchdown underdogs on the road against the red-hot Buffalo Bills.

Let’s be real—New England isn’t winning this game, and they’re likely to find themselves in a big early deficit. If that happens, the Patriots will have no choice but to abandon the run and rely heavily on Maye’s arm to claw their way back. Matchups like this almost guarantee a negative game script for New England, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Maye attempt 40-50 passes by the time the final whistle blows.

On the season, Drake Maye has thrown for just under 2,000 yards with 12 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. He’s been consistent lately, surpassing 200 passing yards in each of his last four games. In fact, Maye has cleared this week’s total of 203.5 passing yards in six of his nine career starts, making it a solid number to back given the expected game script. This game has serious blowout potential, but the sheer volume of pass attempts Maye is likely to rack up should be more than enough to push him past this modest 203.5-yard total.

Kayshon Boutte – Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Matchup: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

Let’s shift focus to one of Maye’s key pass-catchers, Kayshon Boutte. The former LSU standout hasn’t quite lived up to his college hype at the NFL level, but his role has grown significantly as the season has progressed. With injuries sidelining some of New England’s other wide receivers, Boutte’s snap count has seen a major uptick. He’s been on the field for at least 87% of the Patriots’ offensive snaps in each of his last six games.

Boutte isn’t putting up eye-popping stats, but he’s certainly involved. He’s seen at least four targets in every game since October 27, and on the season, he’s tallied 27 catches for 349 yards. While those numbers won’t blow anyone away, Boutte has become a reliable and consistent option in Maye’s progression.

As I mentioned, I love the over on Maye’s passing prop—and someone has to be on the receiving end of those throws. Taking the over on 25.5 receiving yards for Boutte isn’t exactly a moonshot. He’s surpassed that mark in three of his last five games, making it a safe and logical bet for Week 16. Go with the over on Boutte’s receiving yards.

Josh Allen – Over 239.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Matchup: Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

Now let’s shift to the other side of this matchup and talk about Josh Allen—a name you’ve probably heard before. Allen is currently the overwhelming favorite to win his first career NFL MVP award, with odds as short as -900 at some sportsbooks. While Lamar Jackson is making a strong case of his own, the trophy feels like Allen’s to lose at this point.

As mentioned, I don’t expect Buffalo to break a sweat in this matchup against New England. The Patriots have one of the worst defenses in football, while Josh Allen is playing the best football of his career. Over his last two games, Allen has thrown for an incredible 704 yards, tossed 5 touchdown passes, rushed for 5 more scores, and avoided any interceptions. He’s a one-man wrecking crew right now, and opposing defenses simply haven’t found a way to slow him down.

The only real question here is whether the Patriots can keep this game competitive enough for Josh Allen to play a full set of snaps. While I don’t necessarily expect that to happen, Allen should still put up some impressive numbers for however long he’s on the field. The Bills’ offense has leaned more heavily on the passing game as the season has progressed, which boosts Allen’s chances of clearing 240 passing yards—even if this turns into a one-sided blowout.

Take the over on Allen’s passing yards.

Travis Etienne – Over 41.5 Rushing Yards (-105)

Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Jacksonville Jaguars haven’t had much to celebrate this season, and Doug Pederson’s tenure seems to be nearing its end. It’s anyone’s guess what this roster will look like next year. One player facing uncertainty is Travis Etienne, who may be entering his final season as the team’s regular starter. Despite a promising start to his NFL career, Etienne has underwhelmed considerably this year, leaving his future role in question.

The Clemson product has taken a significant step back this year, carrying the ball 113 times for just 456 yards and two touchdowns. That’s a far cry from his first two seasons, where he topped 1,000 rushing yards each year. With a meager 4 yards per carry average and little chance of approaching the 11 touchdowns he scored last season, it’s been a disappointing campaign for the once-promising back.

On the bright side, the Jaguars have a favorable matchup this week against the struggling Las Vegas Raiders in Sin City. The Raiders are on track to secure the No. 1 pick in the draft, and let’s just say they don’t seem particularly motivated to pull off a win on Sunday.

Etienne has been getting consistent work despite his struggles, logging at least 11 carries in each of his last four games. While his numbers haven’t been flashy in that stretch, volume is volume. With the Jaguars favored in this matchup, there’s a good chance they’ll be playing from ahead, which could lead to an increased focus on the ground game for Etienne.

Jacksonville has spent much of the season playing from behind, so Travis Etienne hasn’t had many opportunities to close out games and help run out the clock. However, this matchup against the Raiders should put the Jaguars in a position to do just that. If they play with a lead, as expected, Etienne should see enough work to comfortably surpass the modest 41.5 rushing yards total.

Alexander Mattison – Over 46.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Matchup: Las Vegas Raiders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville has been playing from behind for most of the season, so we haven’t seen Travis Etienne in many situations where he can help salt away a game and milk the clock. However, this week could be different. The Jaguars should have that opportunity against the Raiders, making the over on 41.5 rushing yards a realistic and attainable mark for Etienne.

As for the Raiders, they’re not playing for much at this point and are dealing with significant injuries in the backfield. Zamir White is on IR, and Sincere McCormick has been ruled out for this game. That leaves former Viking Alexander Mattison as the likely lead back, putting him in line for a significant role as Las Vegas’ primary ball carrier.

The Raiders have leaned on a run-first approach under Antonio Pierce this season. While it hasn’t been successful—because, well, they’re terrible—it’s clear Pierce remains committed to trying to establish the ground game. Earlier in the year, Alexander Mattison logged at least 14 carries in four straight games before dealing with an injury of his own. Now that he’s the only healthy running back on the roster, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him handle 15 or more carries in this matchup.

It won’t take much for Alexander Mattison to surpass 46.5 rushing yards, especially against Jacksonville’s porous defense. With his likely workload and the favorable matchup, this line feels very attainable. Bet the over on Mattison’s rushing yards.

Marvin Mims – Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Matchup: Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers

It seems we’re sticking to the NFL’s biggest names this week, aren’t we? In that spirit, let’s talk about Marvin Mims Jr., the lightly-used deep threat for the Denver Broncos. While Mims hasn’t exactly set the leI’m generally a fan of taking overs on deep-threat receivers, as they often only need one big catch to hit the mark. Marvin Mims fits that mold perfectly—more of a big-play specialist than a volume guy.

That said, he’s seen at least 4 targets in 4 of his last 5 games and has surpassed 23.5 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 outings. This looks like a solid spot to back the over for Mims.

The Los Angeles Chargers aren’t exactly a soft matchup, but they did just get torched by Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers last week. With Marvin Mims’ big-play ability, I’m taking the over on 23.5 receiving yards for the Oklahoma product in this one. It’s a manageable number, even in a tougher matchup. Back Mims to go over 23.5 receiving yards.

The Best Week 16 NFL Player Prop Parlay

If you’re looking to combine multiple props for a bigger payout, here’s a 3-leg parlay to consider:

• Drake Maye – Over 203.5 Passing Yards (-110)
• Travis Etienne – Over 41.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
• Marvin Mims – Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

This parlay offers a payout of approximately +600, meaning a $100 wager could bring back $700 total ($100 stake plus $600 in profit).

Each of these props is based on favorable matchups and reliable trends, making them a solid combination for a Week 16 NFL parlay.