2024 Big Ten Conference Football Odds and Predictions

Quick…when was the last time the Big Ten conference actually had ten teams? That would be 1990 just before Penn State joined the conference to push it to 11 teams. With the addition of four more teams this offseason, the Big Ten now stands at 18 members. 

Of those 18 members, the reigning NCAA football national champion calls the Big Ten home. That, of course, is Michigan, which will look a bit different in 2024. We’ll get to that later, but the Wolverines, their rival Ohio State, and newcomer Oregon are among the favorites expected to challenge for this year’s NCAA football championship. 

The Big Ten will abandon its division format just like many of the other conferences around the country. Teams will play a nine-game schedule. The top two teams in the standings at the end of the regular season will play each other for the Big Ten championship. That game will be played on Saturday, Dec. 7, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Scores & Stats will bring you the best Big Ten previews each week of the season, in addition to previews for all of the top games each and every week. You can check NCAA football odds right here each and every week and check in with our NCAA football betting experts to see their top weekly picks for Big Ten games and games around the nation.

Big Ten Conference Realignment

As mentioned, the Big Ten will look different in 2024. The collapse of the Pac-12 started with the defections of USC and UCLA, which announced they would join the Big Ten back in the summer of 2022. Late last summer, it was announced that Oregon and Washington would also leave the Pac-12 and join the Big Ten. 

The Big Ten has always been a midwestern conference but now extends from coast to coast. Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers all joined in the 2010s. Maryland and Rutgers stretch the easternmost boundaries of the conference. Now, with the addition of two California teams, Oregon, and Washington, the Big Ten is no longer just a midwestern conference. 

2024 Big Ten Conference Odds

Check out the latest Big Ten Conference odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites:

Who Wins the 2024 Big Ten Football Championship?

Michigan won the Big Ten championship in each of the last three seasons. This season, the Wolverines will have a new head coach. Jim Harbaugh is now the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers in the NFL. Starting QB J.J. McCarthy is now a Minnesota Viking and new head coach Sherrone Moore returns just one offensive starter – TE Colston Loveland.

Ohio State is the overall favorite to win the conference, something it has not done since 2020. The Buckeyes won four straight Big Ten titles between 2017 and 2020. Oregon lost twice last season – both games to Washington – and returns a ton of talent from last year’s team. Penn State should be right in the thick of the conference race as well with 13 returning starters from last year.

Ohio State +150

• Head coach: Ryan Day
• 2023 Record: 11-2 (8-1)

The Buckeyes had a great offseason, bringing in new QB Will Howard from Kansas State. RBs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins are back as is WR Emeka Egbuka, who could be even better than first-round draft pick Marvin Harrison Jr. The entire offense will work under new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. Yes, the same Chip Kelly that used to coach at Oregon and UCLA.

Ohio State’s defense was among the best in the nation last year. The Buckeyes pass defense was No.1 in the nation allowing opponents just 145.9 yards per game. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles’ defense was second in scoring (11.2 ppg) and third in total defense (265.4 ypg). Eight starters from that unit return, including All-American CB Denzel Burke. The lone secondary spot open will be taken over by Alabama transfer Caleb Downs, also an All-American last season.

Oregon +200

• Head coach: Dan Lanning 
• 2023 Record: 12-2 (8-1 Pac-12)

If not for a pair of three-point losses to Washington, it might have been the Ducks in the College Football Playoff last year. Head coach Dan Lanning loses first-round QB Bo Nix, but he gets former UCF and Oklahoma starter Dillon Gabriel in the transfer portal to take over an explosive offense. WR Tez Johnson (86-1,182-10) returns from the nation’s top passing offense a year ago. 

Lanning and the Ducks will find out early how good they can be. Oregon will face Ohio State on Oct. 12. Later in the month, they travel to Michigan. The defense only returns four starters, but the Ducks have signed 11 blue-chip defensive linemen in the past two recruiting cycles. They also got four elite level defensive backs in the transfer portal this year. With the expansion of CFP, the Ducks could be right in the thick of the national championship race come December.

Penn State +450

• Head coach: James Franklin
• 2023 Record: 10-3 (7-2)

Can Penn State finally make a College Football Playoff? All signs point to “yes” as the Nittany Lions welcome back six starters on both sides of the ball. Leading the charge is sophomore QB Drew Allar, who threw for 2,631 yards and 25 touchdowns last season. Nick Singleton (752 yds., 8 TDs) is back and both will benefit from new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki whose offenses at Kansas averaged 35 points per game in each of the past two seasons.

Kotelnicki’s Kansas offense was ninth in the country last season in rushing, averaging 206 yards per game. That combined with the nation’s best run defense – PSU allowed just 75.5 rushing yards per game last season – is what makes James Franklin’s Nittany Lions a legitimate contender for the Big Ten title as well as for a spot in the CFP.

2024 Big Ten Football Championship Prediction

There’s a reason why Ohio State is such a heavy favorite to win the Big Ten. With Michigan in a transition year, the Buckeyes are primed to win it all. New quarterback Will Howard is experienced. Day returns the makings of another elite defense and his teams are 56-8 over the last five years. This one is built for championships.

Bet: Ohio State +150

Will Any Big Ten Football Teams Make the Playoffs?

When the Buckeyes win the Big Ten championship game, they will become one of the top-4 teams in the country and earn a first-round playoff bye. Count the Buckeyes in, which is why they are given -600 odds to make the playoffs. We’ll pass on that one, but the conference will likely have another team or two in the playoff discussion. That’s likely to be Oregon or Penn State. The two teams don’t play each other in 2024 and the Nittany Lions have the more favorable schedule. Another 10- or 11-win season finally gets Franklin into the postseason.

Bet: Penn State to Make the Playoffs -140

The Best Big Ten Football Teams Overs

Not counting the 2020 COVID season, Day’s Ohio State teams have won at least 11 games in each season. There’s no reason to believe the Buckeyes won’t do that again in 2024. They do play at Oregon and at Penn State, but they should be playing for a conference title and make the playoffs. Double-digit victories are imminent.

Bet: Ohio State Over 10.5 Wins

Last year was the first for head coach Luke Fickell at Wisconsin. The Badgers went 8-6 as they shifted to the Air Raid offense under offensive coordinator Phil Longo. Year 2 should be much better with eight offensive starters returning. Plus, Longo will have former Miami starter Tyler Van Dyke as his new quarterback.

The defense was a top-40 unit against the run, pass, total, and scoring defense. A number of transfers give the Badgers defense some depth. Wisconsin doesn’t play Ohio State or Michigan and they get both Penn State and Oregon at home. There’s enough in Madison to get over this number.

Bet: Wisconsin Over 6.5 Wins

The Best Big 10 Football Teams Unders

The quarterback situation alone should make bettors wary of Maryland’s win total prop. Yes, the Terps went 8-5 last year, but they had a veteran quarterback and a top-40 defense. The likely starter at quarterback is former N.C. State transfer M.J. Morris. He’ll have three returning starters at wide receiver but just one on the offensive line. The defense returns five starters in the front seven but must rebuild the secondary. Getting to seven wins is going to be tough, especially with games at Minnesota, at Oregon, and at Penn State.

Bet: Maryland Under 6.5 Wins

Northwestern surprised everyone last year with an 8-5 record on the heels of former head coach Pat Fitzgerald getting fired during the summer. This year won’t be as kind to the Wildcats. Northwestern doesn’t have a quarterback, though Wildcat-type QB Jack Lausch will try to fit the bill. Northwestern only scored 22.1 points (104th) per game last season and don’t expect them to be much better. The defense, which was very good against the pass (182.9 ypg, 15th), will regress. The Wildcats have to replace three quarters of the secondary from last year.

Bet: Northwestern Under 5.5 Wins

The Best Big Ten Sleeper Team

Each year, they don’t score a lot of points. They don’t allow many either. Somehow, the Iowa Hawkeyes just manage to win games. Head coach Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured FBS head coach and he hasn’t had a losing season since 2012. He replaced his son, Brian, with Tim Lester as the Hawkeyes new offensive coordinator. Iowa will still focus on running the ball and playing great defense. 

Last season, Iowa was fourth (14.8 ppg) in scoring defense, fifth (170.7 ypg) against the pass, and seventh (282.5 ypg) in total defense. Ferentz has 15 starters to work with in 2024. That’s enough for another eight-win season. Not counting the 2020 COVID season, Iowa has won eight or more games in eight consecutive seasons.

Big Ten Heisman Watch

A quick look at the most recent Heisman Trophy odds and one will see that the Big Ten has a great shot at capturing another Heisman Trophy. It’s been awhile, though. Ohio State QB Troy Smith was the last Big Ten player to win the award and that was in 2006. It could be another Ohio State quarterback this year. Will Howard is on the board at +1600.

The Big Ten’s best shot is new Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel. He has 49 career starts at UCF and Oklahoma. He threw for 3,660 yards and 30 touchdowns last year as he led Oklahoma to a 10-3 record. Gabriel, who hails from Hawaii, will wear No. 8. He’ll be the first Oregon player to wear the number since Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota, who also played his high school football in Hawaii.