Netflix Chestnut vs. Kobayashi Hot Dog Contest Odds and Predictions

On Monday, September 2, Netflix is bringing the world an epic showdown between the two most famous competitive eaters of all-time Joey Chestnut and Takeru Kobayashi. Appropriately titled “Unfinished Beef,” the two rivals will labor to shove hot dogs down their gullets as fast as possible on Labor Day.

These two competitive eating superstars have the most infamous rivalry in the history of the “sport.” Unfortunately, in 2010, the beef-frank feud was derailed when Kobayashi had a falling out with Major League Eating and would no longer compete in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Following his departure, Chestnut would go on to dominate the contest for the next 14 years before meeting the same fate. 

The loss of Chestnut left a bad taste in our mouths. Seeing a chance to swoop in and satiate a rabid fanbase, Netflix put all the fixins’ on this contest with an epic showdown between the two rockstars of relish, ketchup and mustard. 

Let’s take a look at the latest Chestnut vs. Kobayashi hot dog contest odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, gather all of the available details for this event, and make our “Unfinished Beef” predictions. 

Joey Chestnut Banned from Nathan’s Hot Dog Contest

A few days prior to dads celebrating Father’s Day with loved ones and their favorite BBQ grills, the superstar of sausage, the Jordan of jelly rolls, the GOAT of competitive eating, Joey Chestnut was banned from the 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. 

Major League Eating, the governing body of the world’s most famous competitive eating contest, announced that Chestnut was banned for violating provisions due to his new partnership with a rival hot dog brand. The 16-time Mustard Belt champion, signed a deal with a vegan hot dog company, which brought acid reflux to the MLE brass and a swift ban hammer. 

Chestnut said he didn’t have an official contract with Nathan’s or MLE and that they are just making up new rules as they go along. Since 2005, “Jaws” has been competing in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Could this be the beginning of the end for MLE and Chestnut? 

Netflix Chestnut vs. Kobayashi: “Unfinished Beef” Details

In their quest to become a player in the world of Sports Entertainment, Netflix saw an opportunity to meet a need, and make some money. The streaming giant is bringing WWE to their platform this year, along with NFL Christmas Day games, Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson, and a plethora of engaging sports documentaries. 

As of this writing, all we know about Chestnut vs. Kobayashi Unfinished Beef is that it takes place on September 2, 2024. Netflix is being coy about the location and competition rules as they drum up more interest and excitement. 

Chestnut vs. Kobayashi Hot Dog Contest Odds

The following Chestnut vs. Kobayashi Hot Dog Eating Contest odds are courtesy of BetUS:

Takeru Kobayashi +400

• Over 55.5 hot Dogs (-110) 
• Under 55.5 hot Dogs (-130)

In May, Takeru Kobayashi announced that he was retiring from competitive eating. But with a chance to compete one more time against his biggest rival, the Japanese eating sensation aims to take down Chestnut before he retires: 

“Retiring for me will only happen after I take him down one last time. This rivalry has been brewing for a long time. Competing against Joey live on Netflix means fans all over the world can watch me knock him out.”

Kobayashi revolutionized competitive eating when he came on the scene in 2001. Prior to his arrival, annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Contest eaters were consuming roughly 20 hot dogs for victory. In 2000, the winner consumed 25 hot dogs. In 2001, Kobayashi set a world record with 50 hot dogs in 12 minutes. At that time, the contest lasted 12 minutes instead of its current length of 10 minutes. 

Kobayashi changed the way eaters consumed the hot dogs. He separated the beef from the buns and ate the hot dogs first. He then dunked the buns in water and quickly consumed them. He’s credited for creating this “Solomon Method,” which most eaters now use. 

Kobayashi would go on to win six straight Nathan’s Hot Dog contests and set another world record with 53 ¾ hot dogs in 2006. That year, Chestnut would finish second with 52 hot dogs. It was his second appearance in the contest and he would soon takeover the sport. 

The 2007 contest changed competitive eating forever as Chestnut won his first Nathan’s Hot Dog competition with 66 hot dogs consumed. Kobayashi finished second with 63 hot dogs, which was a personal record at that time.  

In 2008, the two men finished the 10-minute time limit with 59 hot dogs consumed. MLE held a five hot dog eat off with Chestnut consuming those beef franks seven seconds faster than Kobayashi. 2009 was the last time we saw these two battle it out at Coney Island. Chestnut won with 68 total hot dogs and Kobayashi had 64.5 dogs, which was his personal record. 

In 2010, it seemed that Kobayashi’s next rivalry was with MLE as the two sides had a falling out. Unfortunately, this resulted in the “Godfather of competitive eating” never again competing in the contest that he helped make into a global phenomenon. 

However, his competitive eating appearances didn’t end there. Kobayashi still battled Chestnut and other top eaters in food contests all around the world. One of the major competitions that he carried was the Gringo Bandito Chronic Tacos Challenge where he won every year until it ended in 2018. His personal best was 159 tacos in 10 minutes. 

Other world records he set or held at one point included:

• 62 slices of pizza (10 minutes)
• 21.3 pounds of Soba noodles (12 minutes)
• 93 hamburgers (8 minutes)
• 57 cow brains (15 minutes)
• 150 rice balls (30 minutes

Kobayashi estimates that he has eaten over 10,000 hot dogs in his career. Now we need to estimate how many hot dogs the Japanese star can eat in this Labor Day competition. You have to believe that he will be in the best form possible. 

With almost two months to train for this eat-off, I expect Kobayashi to come in and consume at least 55.5 hot dogs. This is a mark that he surpassed from 2007 to 2009 in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Contest. Since then, he also set personal records of consuming 110 bunless hot dogs in 10 minutes and 60 bunless hot dogs in 2 ½ minutes, according to Wikipedia. 

Bet: Over 55.5 hot Dogs (-110)

Joey Chestnut -700

• Over 64 hot Dogs (-125) 
• Under 64 hot Dogs (-115)

Chestnut’s competitive eating career began in 2005, when he downed 6.3 pounds of asparagus in 11.5 minutes. A few months later, Chestnut would make his debut in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Contest where he finished with 32 hot dogs consumed. That was good for third place. 

As detailed above, by 2007, Chestnut would become the sport’s #1 eater with his annual hot dog dominance. He won the Mustard Yellow Belt from 2007-2014 and 2016-2023, making Chestnut a 16-time world champ. On a side note, or some useless trivia for your next party, Matt Stonie is the only other man to win a Nathan’s Hot Dog Contest from 2001 to 2023. 

Stonie ended Chestnut’s eight-year run as champ. However, it forced “Jaws” to up his game. When Chestnut came back in 2016, he took this contest to a new level. Chestnut won that year by consuming 70 hot dogs. Stonie finished with 53 dogs consumed. It was the first time that any competitor reached the 70-dogs mark. 

But Chestnut didn’t stop there. He kept outdoing himself year after year:

• 2017: 72 hot dogs
• 2018: 74 hot dogs
• 2019: 71 hot dogs
• 2020: 75 hot dogs
• 2021: 76 hot dogs

In 2021, Chestnut set an unbreakable world record of 76 hot dogs and buns. However, since then, Chestnut’s numbers have come back down to human-like levels. In 2022, Chestnut finished with 63 hot dogs. In 2023, he won his 16^th world title with 62 hot dogs. 

BetUS has set the Over/Under for Chestnut at 64 total hot dogs. I’m having a hard time thinking The GOAT will eat 65 or more hot dogs even if he’s competing against his rival. Take the Under for now. However, let’s circle back to this if we see Chestnut consume more than this mark in training or smaller competitions between the end of June and the beginning of September.

Bet: Under 64 hot Dogs (-115)

Chestnut vs. Kobayashi Spread

• Chestnut -8 hot dogs (-120)
• Kobayashi +8 hot dogs (+120)

The Godfather (Kobayashi) vs. The GOAT (Chestnut) sees sportsbooks favor Chestnut by eight hot dogs. This is a tough line to wager on. I can see Kobayashi eating 56 hot dogs, but that means Chestnut will have to consume 64. It’s been three years since Chestnut has hit that mark in a contest. 

Either Chestnut is going to smash Kobayashi by double digits or it’s going to be really close. The +8 option provides us with better value. I think the underdog will make this a fight, which I believe Netflix is betting on as well. 

Bet: Kobayashi +8 hot dogs (+120)

Color of Joey Chestnut’s Top

• White (-150) 
• Black (+225) 
• Any Other (+275)

We’re accustomed to seeing both competitors wearing a white-colored top when competing in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. However, that’s largely due to the competition being outdoors and white is better for reducing heat. 

As of now, it’s unknown where this competition will take place. Will Netflix choose indoors or outdoors? Let’s play it safe and go with the favorite betting option of White regardless of location or venue. 

Bet: White (-150)

Color of Takeru Kobayashi’s Top

• Black (-150) 
• White (+225) 
• Any Other (+275)

The same questions above, can be applied to this prop bet as well. However, I highly doubt that both men wear the same color. For visualization effects, I believe Netflix will have them wear contrasting colors to further emphasize their rivalry. 

If Chestnut wears white, then Kobayashi will wear black. Like with the prop bet above, let’s play it safe and go with the favorite color – Black. 

Bet: Black (-150)

What Will The Winner Receive?

• Belt & Trophy (-200) 
• Just A Belt (+300) 
• Just A Trophy (+500) 
• Any Other (+750)

Nathan’s made it a pop-culture event when awarding the contest’s winner with the Mustard Yellow Belt for the men’s championship. I don’t see Netflix doing the same thing. I believe they will do it bigger and better. 

I expect a championship belt, as they can call up their buddies at WWE to craft one, and a trophy. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if there was more awards and adorations given to the contest’s winner. 

Bet: Belt & Trophy (-200)

How Much Money Will The Winner Receive?

• Over $99,999.5 (-300) 
• Under $99,999.5 (+200)

This is where we see Netflix flex its muscles and quite possibly steal the sport’s top stars if they decide to hold these contests next year. Major League Eating pays the men’s and women’s hot dog winner $10,000 each. I expect Netflix to dwarf that amount. 

I really like the idea of the winner getting $100,000 and the loser getting $50,000 dollars. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was more. Take the Over as these two competitive eating stars are going to get paid. For Chestnut, it will pad his bank account. For Kobayashi, it could go a long way toward his retirement. 

Bet: Over $99,999.5 (-300)

Chestnut vs. Kobayashi Hot Dog Contest Location

• Las Vegas (-150) 
• California (+450) 
• Coney Island (+1000) 
• Texas (+1000) 
• Japan (+1200) 
• Florida (+1400) 
• Europe (+2000) 
• Tennessee (+2000)

I doubt we will see the contest held in either man’s “home town” of California for Chestnut or Japan for Kobayashi. Las Vegas is the betting favorite as it makes sense since it’s one of the entertainment capitals of the world. 

However, I am rooting for Coney Island to be the venue. Wouldn’t it be hilarious, justified, and fitting if Netflix holds this contest on Coney Island where MLE holds the hot dog contest? 

It doesn’t have to be at the corner of Surf and Stillwell Avenues, but a few blocks away could still provide a dramatic backdrop for the two men that turned this competition into must-see television for over two decades.

Bet: Coney Island (+1000)