Naoya Inoue vs. TJ Doheny Odds and Predictions

On Tuesday, September 3, Naoya Inoue (27-0, 24 KOS) makes the second defense of his undisputed junior featherweight championship against TJ Doheny (26-4, 20 KOs) at the Ariake Arena in Tokyo, Japan. Inoue is just the third fighter in the four-belt era to become undisputed champion in two different divisions.

Doheny is the former IBF junior featherweight (super bantamweight) champion and is looking to hand Inoue the first loss of his career. The Japanese superstar looks to maintain his spot as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world.

The Inoue vs. Doheny main card will air live on ESPN+ beginning at 5:45 am ET. This portion of the event also features a title fight as WBO bantamweight champion Yoshiki Takei defends his belt against Daigo Higa. In total, this event will have five bouts with three being non-televised.

Let’s take a look at the latest Doheny vs. Inoue odds, courtesy of the top sports betting sites, and make our Inoue vs. Doheny predictions.

Naoya Inoue vs. TJ Doheny Preview

Check out the tale of the tape and latest odds for Naoya Inoue vs. TJ Doheny:

	Naoya Inoue	TJ Doheny
Age	31	37
Height	5’5”	5’5.5”
Reach	67.5”	68”
Total Fights	27	30
Record	27-0	26-4
Knockouts	24	20
Odds	-5500	+1800

Naoya Inoue Recent Fights

Naoya Inoue is one of the best fighters in the world, and one of the most exciting fighters in the sport today. He is a relentless puncher with a desire to knockout his opponents. As you can see, Inoue has 24 KOs in 27 fights, which is an 89% knockout rate.

Just two years ago, Inoue was still in the bantamweight division steamrolling through everyone in the weight class. He beat Nonito Donaire via 2^nd round TKO and walked away with both the IBF and WBC titles.

Six months later, in December 2022, Inoue scored an 11^th round KO over Paul Butler to add the WBO bantamweight title to his collection and become the undisputed bantamweight champion.

After accomplishing that goal, the Japanese superstar decided to move up to super bantamweight (junior featherweight) and clean out the division to become undisputed champion.

In July 2023, Inoue crushed Stephen Fulton 8^th round TKO to become the WBC and WBO junior featherweight champ. It was clear, his next opponent would have to be Marlin Tapales so that he can unify all the belts at 122 pounds.

In December 2023, that’s exactly what Inoue did as he beat Tapales via 10^th round KO and added the IBF world title around his waist. He was now an undisputed champ for a second weight class and cemented himself as one of the two or three best fighters in the sport today.

Inoue would defend his undisputed championship against Luis Nery in May of this year, and easily stopped his opponent via 6^th round TKO.

Naoya Inoue Recent Odds

Inoue’s odds for this upcoming fight against Doheny opened at -4000 and have settled between -4000 and -6000 depending on the boxing betting site. These are his largest odds since taking on Paul butler in December 2022, and Aran Dipaen in December 2021. Inoue closed as high as -10000 for both fights.

The last time Inoue had odds lower than this was against Fulton when he was just a -450 favorite of the former champ.

TJ Doheny Recent Fights and Odds

Over his last five fights, TJ Doheny has gone 4-1 and comes into this weekend’s clash with a three-fight winning streak.

Over that span, Doheny defeated Kazuki Nakajima via 4^th round TKO in June 2023, then Japhethlee Llamido via 1^st round TKO in October 2023, before stopping Bryl Bayogos via 4^th round TKO in May of this year. Those three opponents had a combined record of 34-1-2.

The lone loss for Doheny over his last five fights came against Sam Goodman in March 2023. Goodman was undefeated at the time. Doheny lost via unanimous decision with the scores of 89-100, 92-98, and 92-97.

Prior to that loss, Doheny last competed in March 2022, where he beat Cesar Juarez via 2^nd round TKO. It was a bounce back win for Doheny who went on a 1-2 stretch over a 19-month span.

As for his upcoming bout against Inoue, Doheny is very confident in his chances. In fact, he believes that his natural size and knockout power will be the difference makers in this world title fight:

“I think I bring a different type of challenge than Inoue’s previous opponents. The last two were both southpaws (Marlon Tapales and Luis Nery), but if you go back through their records, they were career bantamweights. I’m a career super bantamweight and it’s no secret I’m big for the weight, so I have that strength, and everybody knows about my punch power. I bring those attributes to the ring.”

TJ Doheny Recent Odds

Doheny opened as a +1600 underdog and has settled in that range of +1500 to +1700 depending in the sportsbook. It’s the fourth straight fight where Doheny is listed as the underdog. He hasn’t been a betting favorite since his March 2022 fight against Cesar Juarez. In that bout, Doheny opened at -1250 but closed at -500 odds.

Doheny vs. Inoue Predictions

Doheny’s only chance at winning this fight is a lucky punch. Yes, he has the knockout power to finish average fighters, but Inoue is not an “average fighter.” Instead, Inoue is one of the best in the world.

The size advantage that Doheny alluded to, isn’t going to matter much. The Irishman will make one fatal mistake in this bout – engage in a striking battle with Inoue. Once he does this, the fight is over.

We’ll dig deeper into the method of victory further below. As for the winner, there’s no doubt that Inoue will remain undefeated and beat Doheny on September 3^.

The Best Inoue vs. Doheny Prop Bets

The following Doheny vs. Inoue prop bets are courtesy of BetUS:

Over/Under 4.5 rounds

• Over 4.5 (+100)
• Under 4.5 (-130)

Although this fight is scheduled for 12 rounds, oddsmakers have the Over/Under firmly set at 4.5 rounds. The Under is slightly favored at -130 odds. Both options provide value regardless of which way you lean.

In Inoue’s last 10 fights, seven of them went Over 4.5 rounds. The last one to go Under was against Donaire in June 2022. His last four fights in a row all went Over 4.5 rounds.

Although Doheny is a decent fighter, he’s probably somewhere in the bottom half of the opponents that Inoue has faced over the last few years. Yet, I still think he can survive early scares to take this bout Over 4.5 rounds. Four of Doheyn’s last five fights all were Under this 4.5 round mark. However, they were against far inferior talent and Doheyn won all of those fights except one.

Will Fight go the distance?

• Yes (+800)
• No (-1400)

In 57 total fights between these two boxers, they only combined to go the distance in nine of them. Doheny has gone the distance in three of his last eight fights.

Inoue has gone the distance just once in his last 17 fights, and only three times in his career. The lone bout to go the distance over that span, came against Nonito Donaire in November 2019 and Inoue won via unanimous decision. Doheny is definitely not the same caliber of fighter that Donaire was.

I’m actually surprised that these odds aren’t higher. There’s zero chance in my mind that Doheny forces Inoue to go the full 12 rounds. This fight will end inside the distance.

Method of Victory

• Doheny via TKO/KO/DQ (+2500)
• Doheny via decision (+5000)
• Inoue via TKO/KO/DQ (-1400)
• Inoue via decision (+800)
• Draw (+3300)

Based on my predictions above, this fight will end inside the distance and Inoue is going to get his hand raised. That leaves us with one logical conclusion – Inoue wins via TKO/KO.

Since that decision victory over Donaire, Inoue has won eight consecutive fights via TKO/KO. He’s beaten far better fighters over that span than Doheny including a second bout against Donaire and former champs like Stephen Fulton and Marlon Tapales.

Doheny might be able to survive the first five rounds, but he isn’t making it much farther than that. I expect Inoue to wear down the Irishman before finishing him off in the middle rounds of this fight.

Considering that Inoue’s moneyline is so high (-5500), taking the champ to pick up his 25^th KO victory in his 28^th pro fight offers a better return on investment.

Betting on Rounds

• Either Winner in Rounds 1-6 (-200)
• Either Winner in Rounds 7-12 (+200)
• Fight Goes The Distance (-1400)

As we’ve established, there’s no chance that this bout goes the distance. And, since I think Doheny can survive the first five rounds and make this go Over 4.5, the option for this prop to wager on a winner in rounds 7 to 12 is very appealing.

At +200 odds, to get Inoue winning in rounds 7 to 12 offers solid value. Sure, there’s a chance that he can stop Doheny in the first or second rounds. Yet, we’re willing to give the Irishman a puncher’s chance in the first half of the fight before getting stopped and dropped in the second half of this bout.