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New Mexico State Aggies vs UTEP Miners November 30th 2024
Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces is the setting for the week 14 matchup between the UTEP Miners and New Mexico State Aggies. Kick-off is set for 4:00 ET, and the game can be seen on ESPN+. The Aggies are favored by -2.5 points, with the over/under line at 51.5 points. Both teams have struggled this season, with UTEP at 2-9 and New Mexico State at 3-8.
UTEP vs. New Mexico State Key Information
- Teams: Miners at Aggies
- Where: Aggie Memorial Stadium Las Cruces
- Date: Saturday, November 30th
- Betting Odds NMXST -136 | UTEP +114 O/U 51.5
The Miners Can Win If…
UTEP enters Week 14 with a 2-9 record, ranked 128th in our CFB power rankings. They are out of bowl contention and have gone 0-6 on the road this season.
The Miners have been favored in just one game this season and have a -14.6 average scoring margin. Their ATS record stands at 3-6, with a 2-4 mark on the road.
UTEP’s over/under record is 4-5, and their games have averaged 49.5 points. This week’s line is set at 51.5 points, slightly above their average line of 51 points.
UTEP’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 17.5 points per game, which ranks 131st in our offensive power rankings heading into week 14. Their third-down conversion rate is only 32.5%, and they are 104th in rushing, with 120.9 yards per game.
Skyler Locklear leads the passing game with 1,406 yards, and UTEP is 52nd in passing attempts per game. Locklear has nine touchdowns and six interceptions, with a passer rating of 87. Kenny Odom has 732 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.
UTEP’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 32.1 points per game, including a 56-0 loss to Tennessee, where they gave up 460 total yards. Tennessee rushed for 241 yards and threw for 219 yards, scoring four touchdowns on the ground and four through the air.
Opponents have averaged 179.9 rushing yards per game against UTEP, while quarterbacks have posted a 98.8 passer rating, completing 65% of their passes. UTEP ranks 77th nationally, allowing 212.5 passing yards per game.
- Through their last three regular season contests, UTEP has a record of 1-2. In these contests, the team went just 1-2 against the spread, while going 2-1 on the over-under.
- The UTEP Miners have gone 2-8 over their last ten regular season games. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 4-6 to go along with an over-under mark of 5-5.
The Aggies Can Win If…
New Mexico State enters Week 14 with a 3-8 record, and they have no chance of reaching bowl eligibility. They are 0-3 at home this season and sit at 132nd in our power rankings.
The Aggies have been underdogs in all nine games this season, with a 1-8 record in those matchups. They have a -15.4 average scoring margin and are 4-5 against the spread, going 2-1 ATS at home.
Their over/under record is 6-2-1, with their games averaging 56.1 points. This week’s line is set at 51.5 points, slightly above their average line of 51.1 points.
New Mexico State’s offense has struggled this season, ranking 125th in our offensive power rankings and averaging just 20.4 points per game, placing them 92nd nationally. Their passing game has been particularly weak, with only 125.3 yards per game, ranking 127th. They are 95th in completions, averaging 10.8 per game, and their completion percentage is 44.2%, ranking 93rd. They have the lowest passer rating in the country.
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Parker Awad leads the team with 739 passing yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions, with a passer rating of 71. On the ground, New Mexico State ranks 20th in rushing attempts, averaging 178.7 yards per game. Seth McGowan has rushed for 794 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and has scored three touchdowns.
New Mexico State’s defense has struggled this season, allowing an average of 35.7 points per game. They’ve given up 258.4 passing yards per game, ranking 143rd nationally, and 202.9 rushing yards per game, placing them 151st.
In their recent game against Middle Tennessee, the Aggies allowed 21 points but forced two interceptions. They gave up 447 total yards, including 277 passing yards and 170 rushing yards.
- Across New Mexico State’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. This also includes going 2-1 ATS, and posting an over-under record of 3-0.
- The New Mexico State Aggies have gone 7-3 over their last ten regular season games. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 8-2 and an over-under mark of 5-4-1.
The Lean
Our projections have New Mexico State winning this week 14 matchup against UTEP by a score of 32-26. With New Mexico State being -2.5 point favorites, we would go with them to cover the spread.
For the over/under, our model projects a combined 58 points, which is significantly higher than the current line of 51.5 points. We recommend taking the over in this matchup.
