Arkansas Razorbacks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Picks and Predictions December 27th 2024

Arkansas Razorbacks vs Texas Tech Red Raiders December 27th 2024

ESPN will be covering the matchup between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the Arkansas Razorbacks as they face off at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in Memphis. Although Arkansas is technically the home team, this game is being played on a neutral site as part of the AutoZone Liberty Bowl. Kick-off is set for 7:00 ET. The over/under line is at 59.5 points, with the Razorbacks as the -2.5-point favorites. The money line odds are +110 for Texas Tech and -130 for Arkansas. The Razorbacks are 6-6 this season, while the Red Raiders are 8-4.

Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Key Information

• Teams: Red Raiders at Razorbacks
• Where: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium Memphis
• Date: Friday, December 27th
• Betting Odds ARK -130 | TXTECH +110 O/U 59.5

The Red Raiders Can Win If…

Texas Tech enters Week 1 against Arkansas with an 8-4 record. They’ve gone 4-2 at home and 3-2 on the road. The Red Raiders have been favored in seven of their 12 games, posting a 5-2 record as the favorite.

Against the spread, Texas Tech is 7-3-1 this season, with a 4-1 mark on the road. They’ve covered the spread as favorites at 4-2-1 and hold a +4.1 average scoring margin.

The over/under line for this week is 59.5. Texas Tech’s games have averaged 73.1 points, with an average line of 62.1 points. Their over/under record stands at 7-4, with seven games featuring higher lines than this week’s total.

Texas Tech’s offense has been driven by their passing game, ranking 3rd in passing attempts and 5th in completions, averaging 298.3 yards per game. They are 5th in scoring, with 38.6 points per game, and 9th in third-down conversions, converting 49% of their attempts. Our power rankings place them 47th heading into week 1.

Behren Morton leads the team with 3,300 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, holding a passer rating of 96. Tahj Brooks has rushed for 1,505 yards and 17 touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Josh Kelly has 89 receptions for 1,023 yards and 5 touchdowns.

Texas Tech’s defense has struggled this season, allowing an average of 34.5 points per game, ranking 92nd nationally. Opponents have averaged 306.2 passing yards per game against the Red Raiders, completing 63.7% of their passes.

In their recent game, Texas Tech’s defense gave up 15 points but allowed 423 total yards, including 265 passing yards. They also forced two interceptions in the win.

• Texas Tech will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 2-1 over their past three games. Against the spread, the team is 2-1 in these same games while going 3-0 on the over/under.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Texas Tech Red Raiders have gone 7-3 straight up. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 7-2-1 and an over-under mark of 7-3.

The Razorbacks Can Win If…

Arkansas enters Week 13 with a 6-6 record, going 3-3 at home and 2-2 on the road. They’ve been favored in just three games this season, winning all three. As the underdog, they are 2-5. The Razorbacks have a +5.3 average scoring margin and are 5-5 against the spread this year.

Their ATS record is 2-4 at home and 3-1 on the road. As the favorite, they are 1-2 against the spread, while they’ve gone 4-3 ATS as the underdog.

This week’s over/under line is 59.5 points. Arkansas games have averaged 55.2 points, with their over/under record at 4-6. They’ve had nine games with lower lines and six games with fewer points than this week’s total.

Heading into week 1, Arkansas ranks 39th in scoring, averaging 30.2 points per game. They are 43rd in our offensive power rankings. Their passing game is their strength, ranking 24th nationally with 269.1 yards per game, while they are 41st in passing attempts.

Quarterback Taylen Green has thrown for 2,812 yards, completing 60.8% of his passes, with 13 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. He has a passer rating of 86. Leading the rushing attack is Ja’Quinden Jackson with 790 yards and 15 touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Andrew Armstrong leads the receivers with 1,140 yards on 78 catches but has just one touchdown.

Arkansas’ defense is ranked 47th nationally, allowing 24.9 points per game. They’ve given up 244.2 passing yards per game, ranking 133rd, and 124 rushing yards per game, which is 44th. Opposing quarterbacks have a 91.5 passer rating and a 61.4% completion rate against Arkansas.

In their recent game against Missouri, Arkansas allowed 28 points, giving up 193 rushing yards on 47 attempts and 168 passing yards. Missouri completed 10 of 20 passes but didn’t throw a touchdown.

• Arkansas has put together a record of 1-2 in their last three games (regular season). Against the spread, Arkansas went 1-2 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Arkansas has put together a record of 5-5 in their last ten games (regular season). Their record vs the spread sits at 3-7 in these matchups, while posting a 7-3 over-under mark.

The Lean

Arkansas enters this week one matchup as the -2.5 point spread favorite over Texas Tech. Our projected score is 34-27 in favor of the Razorbacks, so we recommend taking Arkansas to cover the spread.

With the over/under line set at 59.5 points, our projection of 61 points suggests that taking the over is the best play for this game.

Arkansas, Texas Tech Navigate Attrition for Liberty Bowl Clash

The Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tenn., will feature a battle of resilience as Arkansas and Texas Tech square off Friday night, each grappling with significant roster turnover. Both teams aim to overcome challenges and close their seasons with momentum.

Arkansas: Filling the Gaps

After finishing the regular season at 6-6, Arkansas has seen its roster depleted by transfer portal departures and opt-outs. Some of the Razorbacks’ most impactful offensive players, including leading rusher Ja’Quinden Jackson (790 yards, 15 touchdowns) and SEC-leading receiver Andrew Armstrong (1,140 yards), will be absent.

The Razorbacks will rely on quarterback Taylen Green, a dual-threat Boise State transfer who recorded 2,812 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and rushed for 521 yards and seven scores. Receiver Isaac TeSlaa, with 439 yards on 25 catches, is the top returning pass-catcher for this game.

On defense, the Razorbacks have also lost key contributors, such as safety TJ Metcalf and linebacker Brad Spence, adding to the challenges of fielding a cohesive unit.

Despite these hurdles, Arkansas is motivated to finish the season with a winning record.

“Going 7-6 with a winning record would be good,” linebacker Stephen Dix said. “At the end of the day, we know that we’re capable of so much more.”

Texas Tech: Leaning on Youth

Texas Tech enters the Liberty Bowl after an 8-4 campaign but is also missing critical pieces. Chief among them is quarterback Behren Morton, who threw for 3,335 yards and 27 touchdowns before undergoing shoulder surgery. Leading receiver Josh Kelly (1,023 yards) has opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft.

With Morton sidelined, freshman Will Hammond will make his first career start. In limited action this season, Hammond completed 15 of 23 passes for 191 yards and a touchdown.

The status of star running back Tahj Brooks (1,505 rushing yards, 17 touchdowns) remains uncertain. If Brooks opts out, Texas Tech will turn to freshmen J’Koby Williams and Cam Dickey to carry the load.

Second-leading receiver Caleb Douglas (55 catches, 762 yards) will be Hammond’s primary target in an offense that must find ways to generate big plays without its most experienced contributors.

Key Matchups

Arkansas’ Defense vs. Will Hammond

Arkansas will look to pressure the freshman quarterback into mistakes, capitalizing on a relatively untested offense.

Texas Tech’s Run Game vs. Arkansas’ Front Seven

If Brooks plays, the Red Raiders’ rushing attack could be pivotal. Otherwise, the Razorbacks will look to exploit the inexperience of Texas Tech’s backups.

Taylen Green’s Mobility

Green’s ability to extend plays with his legs and create opportunities for his receivers will be critical for an Arkansas offense missing key weapons.

What’s at Stake

Arkansas:

A win would mark a second straight bowl victory and a winning record, a step forward after last year’s 7-6 campaign.

Texas Tech:

The Red Raiders aim to cap off their most successful season since 2015 with a bowl win, providing momentum heading into the next chapter under head coach Joey McGuire.

Prediction

Both teams enter the Liberty Bowl with significant question marks, particularly on offense. Arkansas’ experience with Taylen Green at quarterback gives the Razorbacks a slight edge over a Texas Tech squad relying heavily on young, unproven players in key roles.

Final Score Prediction: Arkansas 28, Texas Tech 24