Wisconsin Badgers vs Oregon Ducks Picks and Predictions November 16th 2024

Record-setting quarterback Dillon Gabriel and the undefeated Oregon Ducks (10-0, 7-0) are set to defend their No. 1 College Football Playoff (CFP) ranking as they take on Wisconsin (5-4, 3-3) in a Big Ten showdown in Madison on Saturday. With the Ducks riding high after a dominant win over Maryland, they face a Wisconsin team that’s been struggling to find consistency this season.

Oregon’s Offensive Firepower Led by Gabriel

Oregon’s offense, powered by Gabriel, has been electric all season. The sixth-year transfer from Oklahoma made history last weekend, breaking the NCAA record for total career touchdowns with 180 (147 passing, 33 rushing), surpassing Case Keenum’s record of 178. Gabriel has been surgical with a nation-leading 74.1 percent completion rate, tallying 2,848 yards, 22 touchdowns, and just five interceptions. His leadership and accuracy have helped Oregon score 30 or more points in each of their last nine games.

James Jordan complements Oregon’s air attack with a strong presence on the ground, rushing for 946 yards (5.7 per carry) and 10 touchdowns. The Ducks’ offense, which averages 457 yards per game, has been efficient in the red zone with a 39-of-44 scoring rate, including 32 touchdowns.

“We’re still having a lot of fun, coming up every single day to get better and find ways to improve,” Oregon head coach Dan Lanning said. “The challenge of this new conference, the travel, and some of the teams that we got to play, it’s been a lot of fun for us.”

Defensive Stability and Consistency

Oregon’s defense has been equally impressive, allowing an average of only 16 points per game and holding opponents to 293.7 yards. The Ducks’ defense has been key to maintaining their momentum and dominance in the Big Ten, providing critical stops that complement their high-powered offense.

Wisconsin’s Inconsistent Season and Defensive Woes

On the other hand, Wisconsin has struggled to maintain momentum. After a strong start that included wins over Purdue, Rutgers, and Northwestern, the Badgers hit a rough patch, losing to Penn State and Iowa. They’re coming off a bye following a tough 42-10 loss to Iowa, one of the worst defeats during head coach Luke Fickell’s tenure.

Against Iowa, Wisconsin’s defense was exposed, allowing 329 rushing yards with an average of 6.1 yards per carry. If they hope to contain Oregon’s balanced offense, the Badgers will need to shore up their defensive gaps.

Fickell acknowledged the challenge that Oregon’s offense presents, saying, “They’re going to be challenged in different ways. The ability for them to throw the ball downfield, the dynamic of the wide receivers, and obviously the quarterback’s ability to make plays both with his feet and in the air, it’s a challenge we haven’t really seen this season.”

Wisconsin’s Struggles at Quarterback

The Badgers’ offensive inconsistency has largely stemmed from quarterback issues. Braedyn Locke, a redshirt sophomore who took over for Tyler Van Dyke after his season-ending injury, has shown potential but remains inconsistent. Locke has completed 56.8 percent of his passes, with eight interceptions and eight touchdowns. His two interceptions against Iowa were costly, highlighting the need for better decision-making in high-stakes games.

Key Matchups to Watch

Dillon Gabriel vs. Wisconsin’s Secondary
Gabriel’s passing efficiency and deep-throw accuracy will test Wisconsin’s secondary. If Wisconsin cannot generate pressure or disrupt Oregon’s rhythm, Gabriel could have another record-setting performance.

Wisconsin’s Rush Defense vs. James Jordan
After giving up over 300 rushing yards to Iowa, the Badgers’ rush defense will be tested again by Jordan. Stopping Oregon’s ground game will be essential to containing their offensive balance.

Braedyn Locke vs. Oregon’s Defense
Locke will need to be sharp and avoid turnovers against a defense that thrives on creating pressure and disrupting the passing game. For Wisconsin to have any chance, Locke must protect the football and deliver on third downs.

Red Zone Efficiency
Oregon’s 89 percent red-zone scoring rate contrasts sharply with Wisconsin’s struggles to finish drives. If Oregon can continue converting red-zone visits into touchdowns, Wisconsin may struggle to keep pace.

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Outlook and Implications

With Oregon aiming to solidify their No. 1 ranking and secure a College Football Playoff spot, this game holds significant weight for the Ducks. Maintaining a perfect record ahead of their final game against top-ranked Oregon will be crucial. For Wisconsin, securing bowl eligibility requires a win either against Oregon or in their final game, adding pressure to capitalize on their home-field advantage.

Oregon’s high-powered offense and consistent defense give them the upper hand, but the atmosphere in Madison and Wisconsin’s need to bounce back could make this an intriguing battle.