Duke Blue Devils vs Florida State Seminoles Picks and Predictions October 18th 2024

Duke shoots for first-ever victory over Florida State

Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham is the setting for the week eight matchup between the Duke Blue Devils and the Florida State Seminoles. Kick-off is set for 7:00 ET, and ESPN2 will be handling the broadcast. Duke enters the game with a 5-1 record, while Florida State is looking to improve on their 1-5 start to the season. The over/under line is at 42.5 points, with Duke as the -3.5 point favorite at home.

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Florida State vs. Duke Key Information

• Teams: Seminoles at Blue Devils
• Where: Wallace Wade Stadium Durham
• Date: Friday, October 18th
• Betting Odds DUKE -167 | FLST +139 O/U 42.5

The Seminoles Can Win If…

Florida State enters Week 8 against Duke with a 1-5 record, and they have a 0.0% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast, according to projections. Their chances of becoming bowl-eligible are at just 1.6%. The Seminoles are 1-3 on the road and rank 67th in our power rankings.

Florida State has been favored in four of their six games this season, going 1-3 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is -10.5 points per game, and they are 2-4 against the spread, with a 2-2 ATS record at home.

The over/under line for this week is 42.5 points. Florida State’s over/under record is 1-5, with their games averaging 40.2 points. Their average over/under line has been 49.8 points, and they’ve fallen short of the total by an average of 9.6 points.

Florida State’s offense has struggled heading into week 8, ranking 109th in our offensive power rankings and averaging just 14.8 points per game, placing them 95th in the nation. Their third-down conversion rate is 28.9%, and their rushing attack is averaging 66.7 yards per game.

DJ Uiagalelei leads the passing game with 1,065 yards, but he has thrown six interceptions compared to four touchdowns, resulting in a passer rating of 67. Florida State is 34th in passing attempts, averaging 33.5 per game. Ja’Khi Douglas has 306 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

Florida State’s defense struggled in their recent game against Clemson, allowing 29 points and giving up 571 total yards. Clemson ran the ball 40 times for 228 yards and threw for 343 yards, completing 33 of 43 passes and scoring four passing touchdowns.

On the season, Florida State’s defense is giving up 25.3 points per game. They rank 142nd in the nation against the run, allowing 189.5 rushing yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks have posted a 105.3 passer rating, completing 64% of their passes for an average of 219.3 yards per game.

• Across Florida State’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. Against the spread, they have a strong mark of 2-1 along with an over-under record of 1-2.
• Florida State has put together a record of 4-6 in their last ten games (regular season). The team’s record vs the spread was just 4-6, in addition to an over-under mark of 3-7.

The Blue Devils Can Win If…

Duke enters Week 8 against Florida State with a 5-1 record, ranked 63rd in our power rankings. They have a 96.4% chance of becoming bowl-eligible but only a 0.3% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast. At home, they are 2-0, and they’ve been favored in two of their six games this season.

The Blue Devils have an average scoring margin of +8.8 points per game and are 2-1-1 against the spread. They’ve gone 1-1 ATS as the favorite and 1-0-1 as the underdog.

Duke’s over/under record is 1-3, with their games averaging 43.8 points. Their average over/under line is 48.9 points, and this week’s line is set at 42.5 points.

Duke’s offense is averaging 26.3 points per game heading into week 8, placing them 58th nationally. They rank 98th in our offensive power rankings. Their third-down conversion rate is just 28.7%, ranking 107th, and they are 108th in rushing, with 116.2 yards per game.

Maalik Murphy has thrown for 1,431 yards, leading the passing game. Duke is 26th in passing attempts, averaging 34.8 per game, and 29th in completions. Murphy has 14 touchdowns and five interceptions, with a passer rating of 93. Jordan Moore has 443 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Despite a rough outing against Georgia Tech, where Duke’s defense allowed 371 rushing yards and five touchdowns, they still rank 17th nationally, giving up just 17.5 points per game. In the loss, they allowed 24 points and 505 total yards, including 134 passing yards.

Opponents have averaged 152 rushing yards per game against Duke, while quarterbacks have posted a 73.6 passer rating, throwing for just 157.7 yards per game, the 16th-lowest mark in the country.

• Duke will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 3-0 over their past three games. However, they have only gone 1-2 vs. the spread over this stretch. Their over-under record in these three games was 0-3.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Duke Blue Devils have gone 9-1 straight up. Across these games, their ATS record was just 5-5, while posting an over-under record of 3-6-1.

The Lean

Florida State is coming into this game as the +3.5 point underdogs on the road vs. Duke. We have them winning this game straight-up, with a projected final score of 28-19 in their favor.

With the over/under line set at 42.5 points, our projections suggest a combined score of 47 points, making the over the best bet for this matchup.

College Football Picks & Previews

Duke University is on the verge of a potential breakthrough, seeking their first-ever victory over Florida State University in 22 matchups. As the Blue Devils prepare to host the struggling Seminoles in a Friday night Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) showdown in Durham, N.C., both teams enter with different momentum. Duke is coming off its first loss of the season, while Florida State continues to grapple with a disappointing campaign.

Duke’s Strong Start and Recent Setback

With a promising 5-1 record (1-1 in ACC play), Duke is having one of its best seasons in recent memory. However, their momentum was halted on October 5 in a 24-14 loss to Georgia Tech. That defeat marked their first stumble of the season, but it also came before a much-needed break in their schedule. Head coach Manny Diaz emphasized the importance of this time off.

“Our players were able to refresh themselves as much as you can midway through October,” Diaz said. The additional time has allowed Duke to regroup, focus on execution, and better prepare for their game against Florida State.

Florida State’s Struggles and Reset

Florida State, on the other hand, enters the game with a 1-5 record (1-4 ACC). Their season has been defined by frustration, as they have failed to find consistency on either side of the ball. Their last outing was a 42-16 loss to SMU on September 28, marking the second of two consecutive defeats. Similar to Duke, the Seminoles also had a break between games, which players like safety K.J. Kirkland believe was critical for regrouping and studying their next opponent.

“It’s definitely always good to reset,” Kirkland noted. “It also gave us a better opportunity to scout our opponent.”

The extra time has allowed Florida State to focus on Duke’s key offensive weapon—quarterback Maalik Murphy.

Maalik Murphy: Duke’s Offensive Anchor

Duke’s success this season has largely been driven by quarterback Maalik Murphy. In his first full season as a starter, Murphy has thrown for 1,431 yards and 14 touchdowns, while keeping interceptions to a manageable five. His ability to make big plays with both his arm and legs makes him a dual-threat that Florida State must respect.

“That quarterback is pretty good,” said Kirkland, acknowledging Murphy’s potential. “He has got a big arm on him. They can run the ball. They do a lot of good things.”

Murphy’s versatility will be key for Duke’s offense, which will look to take advantage of a Florida State defense that has struggled to contain opposing teams in recent weeks.

Florida State’s Offensive Woes

While Duke’s offense has thrived, Florida State’s offense has faltered. The Seminoles haven’t scored more than 16 points in a game since their season opener, a 24-21 loss to Georgia Tech in Dublin. This inability to generate offense has plagued head coach Mike Norvell’s team all season, forcing them to rely on a roster stocked with young talent.

Norvell has attempted to shake things up in preparation for Duke, going as far as eliminating music from practices to help his team focus on improving their energy and intensity.

“We don’t control the atmosphere, but we do control ourselves,” Norvell explained. “We wanted a little change-up… making sure we bring the energy that is necessary on every single play.”

The Seminoles’ offense will also rely on redshirt freshman quarterback Brock Glenn, who has shown flashes of potential since becoming the starter in early October. Glenn threw for 228 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception in his starting debut against Clemson, and his playmaking ability could give Florida State a much-needed offensive spark.

Florida State’s Youth Movement

Florida State’s offensive unit is heavily dependent on young players, with as many as five freshmen or redshirt freshmen expected to start. This influx of youth has brought a fresh energy to the team, particularly with Glenn under center. Coach Diaz of Duke noted that the Seminoles seem to rally around Glenn, giving the team a renewed sense of purpose.

“More than anything, it feels like the team has fire and energy behind him,” Diaz remarked.

Historical Context: Duke’s 0-22 Record Against Florida State

The matchup between these two teams is further intensified by Duke’s historical struggles against Florida State. The Blue Devils are winless in 22 all-time meetings with the Seminoles, including last season’s 38-20 loss in Tallahassee, Fla. In that game, Florida State scored 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to seal the win. However, with Duke performing at a much higher level this year, the Blue Devils are optimistic about finally breaking through and securing their first-ever victory over the Seminoles.

Keys to the Game

• Duke’s Balanced Attack: Led by Maalik Murphy, Duke’s offense will look to exploit Florida State’s defense, which has struggled to contain both the pass and run. If Murphy can continue his efficient play, Duke could control the game’s tempo.
• Florida State’s Freshman Quarterback: Brock Glenn’s performance will be critical for Florida State. If he can replicate or build upon his solid outing against Clemson, the Seminoles might have a chance to challenge Duke’s defense.
• Defensive Execution: Both teams will need to focus on execution in key moments. Duke will aim to put pressure on Florida State’s inexperienced quarterback, while the Seminoles must find a way to slow down Murphy’s dynamic playmaking.

Conclusion: A Historic Opportunity for Duke

As Duke prepares to face Florida State, the Blue Devils find themselves on the cusp of making history. With a strong season so far, a powerful offense led by Maalik Murphy, and the chance to snap a 22-game losing streak to the Seminoles, Duke has everything to play for. Meanwhile, Florida State enters the game in search of its own turning point, looking to energize their season behind young quarterback Brock Glenn.

Will Duke secure their first-ever victory over Florida State, or will the Seminoles spoil the party once again? The answer will unfold under the Friday night lights in Durham.