Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Duke Blue Devils Picks and Predictions September 21st 2024

Duke is the heavy favorite in their week four non-conference matchup against Middle Tennessee, with the point spread set at -14.5. The game is scheduled for 4:00 ET on Saturday, September 21st, at Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium in Murfreesboro. ESNU will be handling the broadcast. Duke comes in with a 3-0 record, while Middle Tennessee is 1-2 on the season. The over/under line is currently 51.5 points.

Duke vs. Middle Tennessee Key Information

Duke is now 3-0 after narrowly defeating UConn at home. The Blue Devils were heavy -17 point favorites but ended up winning by just five points, failing to cover the spread. The over/under line was set at 47.5 points, and the total score was 47 points, resulting in a push.

Duke led 7-0 after the first quarter, but UConn outscored them in the second quarter, making it 17-7 in Duke’s favor at halftime. The Blue Devils added another touchdown in the third quarter, but UConn responded with 14 points. Heading into the fourth quarter trailing 21-17, Duke outscored UConn 9-0 to remain undefeated.

Quarterback Maalik Murphy led Duke’s offense to a 26-21 win, throwing for 267 yards and three touchdowns, with one interception. He completed 65.1% of his passes and earned a passer rating of 95.78. Que’Sean Brown was his top target, hauling in 11 receptions for 87 yards.

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Duke’s offense totaled 418 yards, with 267 yards coming from the passing game. The Blue Devils picked up 22 first downs and threw three touchdown passes. On the ground, Duke rushed 35 times for 151 yards, with Star Thomas leading the way with 122 yards on 22 carries.

Duke’s defense will need to focus on stopping the run after allowing 179 rushing yards to UConn in their last game. The Blue Devils gave up 314 total yards and 26 points, but they did manage to pick off one pass. In the passing game, Duke allowed 135 yards on 15 completions.

Middle Tennessee is looking to bounce back after a 49-21 loss to Western Kentucky, bringing their record to 1-2 for the season. The Blue Raiders were +7.5 point underdogs but ended up losing by 28 points, failing to cover the spread. The game’s total score of 70 points surpassed the over/under line of 54.5 points.

Western Kentucky took control early, and Middle Tennessee found themselves down 14-0 after the first quarter. The Blue Raiders were unable to score until the second quarter, and by then, Western Kentucky had extended their lead to 21-0. Middle Tennessee’s offense came to life in the third quarter, but they were only able to put up 14 points, while Western Kentucky added 21. The Blue Raiders managed to score once more in the fourth quarter, but it wasn’t enough to overcome Western Kentucky’s 42-14 lead heading into the final quarter.

In their 49-21 loss to Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee’s offense put up 514 yards, with 456 of those coming through the air. Nicholas Vattiato completed 77.4% of his passes for 456 yards and three touchdowns, ending the game with a passer rating of 137.5. Omari Kelly was his top target, hauling in nine receptions for 239 yards and all three of the team’s receiving touchdowns.

The Blue Raiders managed 21 first downs but struggled to establish a ground game, finishing with just 58 rushing yards on 23 attempts. Vattiato also led the team in rushing, gaining 21 yards on nine carries.

After allowing 481 passing yards and six touchdowns through the air in their last game, Middle Tennessee’s secondary will need to regroup. Western Kentucky’s passing game was nearly unstoppable, completing 31 of 37 attempts. Overall, the Blue Raiders gave up 633 total yards and 49 points. Their run defense was more effective, limiting Western Kentucky to 152 rushing yards on 33 carries.

Our projections have Duke winning their week four matchup against Middle Tennessee by a score of 32-14. With Duke being -14.5 point favorites, we expect them to cover the spread.

For the over/under, we recommend taking the under, as our model projects a combined 46 points, which is below the current line of 51.5 points.

Duke Aims for 4-0 Start Against Middle Tennessee

The Duke Blue Devils will be looking to cap off their nonconference schedule with a perfect 4-0 record when they face Middle Tennessee State this Saturday in Murfreesboro, Tennessee. With a strong start to their season, Duke is hoping to build momentum heading into their Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) opener against rival North Carolina later this month.

For Duke (3-0), this matchup against Middle Tennessee (1-2) represents a final test before the high-stakes ACC competition begins. The Blue Devils are aiming for their second consecutive 4-0 start under first-year head coach Manny Diaz, while the Blue Raiders, led by head coach Derek Mason, are looking to rebound from a tough loss and find consistency before heading into the thick of their own schedule.

Duke’s Strong Start and Late-Game Heroics

Duke enters this game undefeated, thanks in part to their ability to execute in critical moments. Their last two victories, a 26-21 win over UConn and a road win against Northwestern, both required late-game comebacks. Head coach Manny Diaz emphasized the importance of these experiences as his team prepares for the more challenging matchups ahead.

“There’s a lot that we have to improve on, but it’s always more fun to improve when you’re winning than when you’re not winning,” Diaz said. “What they have learned through these last couple of weeks is going to really bode well as we get further down into our season.”

A key player in Duke’s early success has been quarterback Maalik Murphy, a transfer from Texas. Murphy has been efficient, throwing for 801 yards and eight touchdowns in the first three games. His high volume of pass attempts—leading all ACC quarterbacks with 122—has helped keep Duke’s offense moving, even in tight situations.

Murphy’s ability to manage the game and lead Duke’s offense in crucial moments has been a major factor in their 3-0 start, and the Blue Devils will once again look to him to power their attack against Middle Tennessee.

Middle Tennessee Struggles on Defense

Middle Tennessee’s season has been marked by inconsistency, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The Blue Raiders are ranked 129th out of 133 FBS teams in points allowed per game, giving up an average of 42 points. Even in their lone win, a 56-25 victory over FCS opponent Tennessee Tech, the defense showed signs of vulnerability.

In last week’s 49-21 loss to Western Kentucky, head coach Derek Mason took full responsibility for his team’s struggles, acknowledging that improvement is needed quickly.

“At the end of the day, I don’t blame players, I blame me,” Mason said. “What we will do as a staff and as a team is hold each other accountable. Because that’s where the winning gets done.”

Middle Tennessee’s defense has been porous, and facing an efficient Duke offense will be a significant challenge. The Blue Raiders will need to tighten up defensively if they hope to slow down the high-powered Blue Devils and avoid another lopsided defeat.

Offensive Strengths on Both Sides

While Middle Tennessee has struggled defensively, their offense has shown promise, particularly in the passing game. Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato has been a bright spot for the Blue Raiders, throwing for 456 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s loss to Western Kentucky. Vattiato’s ability to air it out will be key if Middle Tennessee hopes to keep pace with Duke’s potent offense.

For Duke, Maalik Murphy has continued to prove himself as a dynamic playmaker. With 801 passing yards and eight touchdowns through three games, Murphy has settled into his role and developed chemistry with his receivers. The Blue Devils’ balanced attack, combined with their ability to capitalize on key moments, has made them a tough team to beat.

What to Expect: Key Matchup Breakdown

While Duke’s offense has been consistent, Middle Tennessee’s defense will need to make significant adjustments to slow down the Blue Devils. With Duke’s ability to make late-game pushes and Murphy’s command of the offense, Middle Tennessee will need to focus on creating pressure and avoiding costly mistakes in coverage.

On the other side, Middle Tennessee’s Vattiato will need to deliver another strong performance against a Duke defense that has been tested but remains solid. The Blue Raiders’ passing attack could give them a chance to stay in the game, but it will ultimately come down to whether they can contain Duke’s offense and avoid falling behind early.

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Final Tune-Up Before ACC Play

For Duke, this game represents more than just another nonconference contest—it’s an opportunity to fine-tune their game before entering the ACC gauntlet. With a rivalry matchup against North Carolina looming, the Blue Devils will want to iron out any wrinkles and build confidence heading into league play.

For Middle Tennessee, a win over an undefeated, ranked Duke team would serve as a significant boost as they aim to turn their season around. While the odds may be stacked against them, the Blue Raiders will look to play with urgency and capitalize on the home-field advantage.

This matchup provides both teams with a critical test. For Duke, it’s about staying focused and finishing strong before the ACC opener. For Middle Tennessee, it’s a chance to regain footing and prove that they can compete with top-tier opponents.