Boise State Broncos vs Penn State Nittany Lions Picks and Predictions December 31st 2024

Boise State Broncos vs Penn State Nittany Lions December 31st 2024

ESPN will be handling the television coverage for the Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Boise State Broncos matchup, set to kick off at 7:30 ET from State Farm Stadium in Glendale. This is the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, even though it’s being played on a neutral site. Penn State is the -10.5-point favorite with the over/under line sitting at 52 points. Both teams come in with a 12-2 record for the season.

Penn State vs. Boise State Key Information

Penn State enters the College Football Playoff quarterfinals with a 12-2 record, facing Boise State in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl. The Nittany Lions have gone 7-1 at home and 4-1 on the road this season. They’ve been favored in 11 of their 14 games, going 11-0 as the favorite.

Against the spread, Penn State is 7-6, with a +18 average scoring margin. They are 4-4 ATS at home and 3-2 on the road. As the favorite, they’ve covered the spread in seven of 11 games, with a 7-4 ATS record.

The over/under line for this week is 52 points. Penn State’s games have averaged an over/under line of 49.9 points, and their over/under record is 5-8, with their games averaging 49.9 points per contest.

Heading into week 1, Penn State’s offense ranks 5th in our power rankings. They are 21st in scoring, averaging 33.9 points per game. Their run game is strong, with 202.6 rushing yards per game on 37.6 attempts, placing them 11th nationally.

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Nicholas Singleton leads the rushing attack with 928 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry, and has scored 8 touchdowns. Quarterback Drew Allar has thrown for 3,021 yards with 21 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 107.

Penn State’s defense has been strong this season, ranking 13th nationally by allowing just 15.9 points per game. They’ve also given up only 102.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks 13th in the country, and 179.6 passing yards per game.

In their recent game against SMU, the defense allowed just 10 points and forced three interceptions. They held SMU to 58 rushing yards on 36 attempts and 195 passing yards.

Boise State enters the College Football Playoff quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl with a 12-1 record. They’ve been perfect at home, going 6-0, and are 5-1 on the road. The Broncos have been favored in 11 of their 13 games and are 11-0 as the favorite this season.

Against the spread, Boise State holds a 7-4-1 record, with a +17.2 average scoring margin. They are 4-2 ATS at home and 3-2-1 on the road, going 6-4-1 as the favorite and 1-0 as the underdog.

This week’s over/under line is 52 points, the lowest for Boise State this season. Their games have averaged 61 points, with an average line of 60.4 points, and their over/under record is 6-6.

Boise State’s offense has been dominant on the ground, ranking 4th nationally with 252.6 rushing yards per game. They are also 3rd in scoring, averaging 39.1 points per game, and they rank 6th in third down conversions, converting 49.1% of their attempts. Heading into week 1, they are ranked 10th in our offensive power rankings.

Ashton Jeanty leads the rushing attack with 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns, averaging 7 yards per carry. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has thrown for 2,714 yards and 22 touchdowns, with just three interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 101. Cameron Camper leads the team’s receivers with 837 yards and four touchdowns.

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Boise State’s defense delivered a strong performance in their recent game, allowing just seven points in a 21-7 win over UNLV. They gave up 12 first downs and 293 total yards, including 145 rushing yards on 38 attempts and 148 passing yards.

On the season, Boise State ranks 35th nationally, giving up 21.9 points per game. They’ve allowed 115.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks 29th, and 246.8 passing yards per game, with opposing quarterbacks completing 61.2% of their passes and posting a passer rating of 93.7.

Penn State is the heavy favorite in their week one matchup against Boise State, with the spread currently at -10.5 in their favor. We expect Penn State to win by a score of 35-22, so we recommend taking the Nittany Lions to cover the spread.

With the over/under line set at 52 points, our projection of 57 points makes the over the best bet for this game.

Penn State Big Favorite in CFP Quarterfinal, but Boise State Undeterred

The College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup between No. 3 seed Boise State and No. 6 seed Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl on Tuesday brings together two programs with unblemished records in the storied bowl game.

Perfect Fiesta Bowl Records

Boise State enters the game with a 3-0 Fiesta Bowl record, highlighted by its unforgettable 43-42 overtime win against Oklahoma in 2007. The Broncos’ other victories came against TCU in 2010 and Arizona in 2014. Meanwhile, Penn State boasts an unmatched 7-0 record in the Fiesta Bowl, solidifying its legacy in the desert.

“Our guys are very aware of our history here at Penn State,” coach James Franklin said. “We spend a lot of time in the offseason talking about those things, or former players come back and talk to our guys.”

Boise State: Embracing the Underdog Role

Despite their history of Fiesta Bowl upsets, the Broncos (12-1) enter the matchup as 10.5-point underdogs against the 12-2 Nittany Lions. Head coach Spencer Danielson relishes the role of the underdog, leaning on Boise State’s tradition of defying expectations.

“We might not have what everybody else has, but we definitely have enough,” Danielson said. “Please count us out. I know how we are going to work, and I know we are going to work to play our absolute best.”

Boise State’s path to the playoffs was fueled by Mountain West dominance and the brilliance of running back Ashton Jeanty, the Maxwell Award winner and Heisman Trophy runner-up. Jeanty has amassed 2,497 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns this season and is just 132 yards shy of breaking Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record.

Franklin has high praise for Jeanty, calling him the key to Boise State’s success. “He can run away from you and score from a distance,” Franklin said. “Breaks a ton of tackles — 1,300 yards of his rushing yards are after contact, which is like a ridiculous stat.”

Penn State: A Balanced Powerhouse

Penn State, which advanced to the quarterfinals with a dominant 38-10 victory over SMU, relies on a well-rounded attack led by senior tight end Tyler Warren. A Mackey Award winner and Heisman Trophy seventh-place finisher, Warren has redefined the tight end position with 92 receptions, 1,095 receiving yards, and six touchdowns this season — all Big Ten records for his position.

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Boise State’s Danielson acknowledges Warren’s exceptional ability. “Tyler Warren is elite,” he said. “He can do it all. He is extremely violent at the point of attack. He can catch every ball. You talk about just an extremely gifted athlete, we’ve got to know where he is at all times.”

A Meeting of Contrasting Styles

The game pits Boise State’s dynamic ground game, anchored by Jeanty, against Penn State’s formidable balance. Both coaches acknowledge the historical significance of this matchup, with Franklin lauding Boise State’s tradition of success and community support.

“Boise State has the ingredients to succeed,” Franklin said. “It’s in the university. It’s in the community. It’s embedded there.”

With one team fighting to continue its Cinderella story and the other looking to extend its dominance, the Fiesta Bowl promises to be a compelling chapter in both programs’ storied histories.