Bowling Green Falcons vs Arkansas State Red Wolves December 26th 2024

ESPN will be covering the 68 Ventures Bowl, where the Bowling Green Falcons are technically the home team, but the game is being played at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, with a neutral site. Kick-off is set for 9:00 ET on Thursday, December 26th. The over/under line is currently at 49.5 points. The Falcons are -6.5 point favorites over the Arkansas State Red Wolves. Both teams enter the game with a 7-5 record this season.

Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Key Information

• Teams: Red Wolves at Falcons
• Where: Hancock Whitney Stadium Mobile
• Date: Thursday, December 26th
• Betting Odds BOWLGR -237 | ARKST +197 O/U 49.5

The Red Wolves Can Win If…

Arkansas State enters their Week 1 matchup against Bowling Green with a 7-5 record. They’ve been strong at home, going 4-1, but have struggled on the road, posting a 2-4 mark. The Red Wolves are undefeated as favorites, winning all four games, but they are 2-5 when playing as underdogs.

Against the spread, Arkansas State is 5-6 this season, with a 3-3 record on the road and 2-3 at home. They’ve gone 2-2 ATS as favorites and 3-4 as underdogs, with an average scoring margin of -7.4 points per game.

The over/under record for Arkansas State games is 5-6, with their contests averaging 57.1 points. The average over/under line this season has been 57.2 points, and this week’s line is set at 49.5 points.

Arkansas State’s offense is averaging 24.8 points per game heading into week 9, placing them 68th in the nation. They are ranked 95th in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor has thrown for 2,562 yards with 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 83.

Arkansas State ranks 30th in passing attempts, averaging 34.2 per game, and 31st in completions with 21.2 per game. They are 69th in passing yards, averaging 227.1 yards per game, and have converted 39.8% of their third downs. Leading rusher Zak Wallace has 622 yards and 10 touchdowns, while Corey Rucker has 946 receiving yards and five touchdowns.

Arkansas State’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 32.2 points per game, including 40 points in their recent loss to Old Dominion. They gave up 554 total yards, with 411 rushing yards on 50 attempts, while allowing two passing touchdowns and 143 passing yards.

Opponents have averaged 229 rushing yards per game against Arkansas State, ranking them 176th nationally. The defense has faced 28.2 pass attempts per game, allowing a 63.7% completion rate and 234.4 passing yards per game, ranking 117th in the country.

• The Arkansas State Red Wolves have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. The team has also been excellent vs the spread, going 2-1. Their over-under record in these games was 1-2.
• Arkansas State has put together a record of 5-5 in their last ten games (regular season). This includes going 5-5 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Falcons Can Win If…

Bowling Green enters Week 13 with a 7-5 record, going 4-2 on the road and 2-3 at home. They’ve been favored in eight games this season, posting a 5-3 record as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +6.5 points per game.

Against the spread, the Falcons are 5-6, with a 4-2 mark on the road and a 1-4 record at home. As the favorite, they’ve gone 2-6 ATS, but they are 3-0 ATS as the underdog.

Their over/under record is 4-7, with an average line of 50 points. This week’s line is set at 49.5 points, and Bowling Green games have averaged 47 points per contest.

Bowling Green’s offense ranks 72nd in our power rankings heading into week 1, with an average of 26.8 points per game. They are 54th in passing attempts, averaging 30.7 per game, and 40th in completions, with 20.2 per game. Their passing game produces 224.6 yards per game, placing them 72nd nationally. On third downs, they convert 37.5% of their attempts.

Connor Bazelak leads the passing attack with 2,654 yards and a 67.1% completion rate. He has thrown 15 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, earning a passer rating of 97. Terion Stewart leads the rushing game with 895 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and has scored six touchdowns. Malcolm Johnson Jr. has 504 receiving yards on 47 catches, with two touchdowns.

Bowling Green’s defense has been a bright spot this season, ranking 18th nationally by allowing just 20.2 points per game. They’ve given up an average of 181.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 30th in the country, and 151.2 rushing yards per game.

In their recent game against Miami (OH), the defense allowed just 190 total yards, including 63 rushing yards on 22 attempts and 127 passing yards. They also forced an interception in the game.

• Spanning across their last three games, Bowling Green have gone 2-1. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is less impressive at 1-2, while posting an over-under record of 1-2.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Bowling Green Falcons have gone 5-5 straight up. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 4-6 to go along with an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Lean

Arkansas State is the +6.5 point underdog on the road in their week one matchup against Bowling Green. We have this game finishing 23-22 in favor of the Red Wolves, making them a good bet to cover the spread.

For the over/under, with the line set at 49.5 points, our projection of 45 points suggests taking the under as the best play.Bowling Green vs. Arkansas State: All Eyes on the 68 Ventures Bowl

The 68 Ventures Bowl is just around the corner, and this matchup between the Bowling Green Falcons and Arkansas State Red Wolves is set to be a good one. Both teams are coming off solid seasons and are ready to leave it all on the field in Mobile, Alabama, on Thursday. Let’s break down the storylines, key players, and what to watch for in this exciting bowl game.

Bowling Green’s Comeback Story

For Bowling Green (7-5), this season marks the light at the end of a very dark tunnel. After suffering through seven straight losing seasons (2016-2022), the Falcons are finally back in the mix, and head coach Scot Loeffler couldn’t be prouder.

“I’m super proud of the guys that have been part of this program for four, five, and six years,”

–Scot Loeffler

This bowl game is huge for Bowling Green. Their last bowl win was way back in 2014, and they’re looking to end that drought in style. For the seniors on the roster, this game is a chance to cap off their careers with a major accomplishment.

Harold Fannin Jr. Is the Guy to Watch

Tight end Harold Fannin Jr. has been the Falcons’ not-so-secret weapon all season long. He’s already made history as the first tight end in FBS history to win a conference Player of the Year award (Mid-American Conference), and now he’s on the brink of breaking some serious records:

• He needs 11 more receiving yards to break Jace Amaro’s single-season record for tight ends (1,352 yards).
• He’s just 12 receptions away from topping James Casey’s record for single-season catches by a tight end (111).

“He’s phenomenal. Phenomenal athlete, really good guy, too,”

–Brock Horne.

Arkansas State Is on the Rise

Arkansas State (7-5) is coming into this game with some momentum of their own. Under head coach Butch Jones, the Red Wolves have shown real progress, making this their best season since 2019. They finished the regular season strong, winning four of their last six games.

Their offense is balanced and dangerous, led by:

• Jaylen Raynor, who threw for 2,562 yards and 14 touchdowns this season.
• Zak Wallace, who’s been a touchdown machine with 622 rushing yards and 10 scores.

But here’s the catch: their defense has struggled big time. The Red Wolves gave up an average of 32.3 points per game and allowed 460.7 yards per game, putting them near the bottom of FBS rankings. Injuries on the defensive line didn’t help, but they’re as healthy as they’ve been all year heading into this game.

Defense Could Be the Decider

When you compare these two teams, one thing stands out: Bowling Green’s defense is a lot more solid. The Falcons allowed just 20.3 points per game this season, a stat that could be the difference-maker against Arkansas State’s inconsistent defense.

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What’s at Stake?

For Bowling Green, this game is about proving they’re back. A win would not only snap their bowl drought but also validate all the hard work they’ve put in to turn the program around.

For Arkansas State, it’s a chance to keep building under Butch Jones and show they’re ready to compete at a high level again.

Prediction: Falcons Have the Edge

This game is shaping up to be a tight one, but Bowling Green has a couple of key advantages:

1. Harold Fannin Jr. is a game-changer.
2. Their defense has been consistently strong all season.

Arkansas State’s offense will keep them in it, but their defensive struggles might be too much to overcome.

Predicted Score: Bowling Green 27, Arkansas State 21

The 68 Ventures Bowl is more than just a game for these teams—it’s a chance to cap off their seasons with a big win. Don’t miss it!

Who Will Dominate the 68 Ventures Bowl?

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