Louisville Cardinals vs Southern Methodist Mustangs Picks and Predictions October 5th 2024

ESPN will be covering the week six matchup between the SMU Mustangs and Louisville Cardinals, set to kick off at 12:00 ET from L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville. The Cardinals are the -7 point favorites at home, and the over/under line is currently at 57 points. Both teams are having strong seasons, with SMU coming in at 4-1 and Louisville at 3-1.

SMU vs. Louisville Key Information

The Mustangs Can Win If…

SMU enters Week 6 with a 4-1 record, ranked 19th in our power rankings. They have a 99.1% chance of becoming bowl-eligible and an 11.3% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast, according to projections. The Mustangs also have a 13.2% chance of making the CFB playoff.

SMU’s average scoring margin this season is +20.8 points. They are 2-2 against the spread, going 1-2 as the favorite. On the road, they are 0-1 ATS, while their home record is 2-1.

The over/under line for this week is 57 points. SMU’s games have averaged 63.6 points, with an average line of 54.1 points. Their over/under record stands at 2-2, with an average margin of +8.9 points.

SMU’s offense is averaging 42.2 points per game heading into week 6, ranking 12th in the nation. They are 14th in rushing, with 217.2 yards per game on the ground, and they rank 7th in rushing attempts. Brashard Smith leads the rushing attack with 506 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 7 yards per carry.

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Quarterback Kevin Jennings has thrown for 733 yards, with six touchdowns and one interception, giving him a passer rating of 104. SMU ranks 30th in third-down conversions, converting 46.4% of their attempts. In our offensive power rankings, they are 70th heading into this week’s matchup against Louisville.

SMU’s defense has been strong this season, ranking 20th nationally by allowing just 91.6 rushing yards per game. In their recent win against Florida State, they held the Seminoles to 73 rushing yards on 25 attempts and forced three interceptions.

Opposing quarterbacks have managed a passer rating of just 68 against SMU, completing only 50.5% of their passes. This season, SMU’s defense is ranked 43rd in the country, giving up 21.4 points per game.

Louisville heads into Week 6 against SMU with a 3-1 record, ranked 12th in our power rankings. They have a 96.3% chance of becoming bowl-eligible and a 17.7% shot at winning the Atlantic Coast. The Cardinals also have a 22.5% chance of making the CFB playoff, according to projections.

At home, Louisville is 2-0, while they are 0-1 on the road. They’ve been favored in two games this season, going 2-0 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +25.5 points, and they are 2-1 against the spread, covering both home games.

The over/under line for this week is 57 points. Louisville’s games have averaged 57.5 points, with an average line of 52.7 points. Their over/under record is 2-1, with three games having lower lines than this week’s total.

Louisville’s offense is averaging 41.5 points per game, placing them 16th in the nation, and they are 21st in our offensive power rankings heading into week 6. Tyler Shough has thrown for 1,114 yards with 11 touchdowns and just one interception, giving him a passer rating of 123. Louisville ranks 11th nationally in passer rating and 20th in completion percentage, completing 67.4% of their passes.

They are averaging 297 passing yards per game, ranking 40th, and are 52nd in passing attempts. Leading receiver Ja’Corey Brooks has 368 yards and four touchdowns. On the ground, Louisville is averaging 190.8 rushing yards per game. Isaac Brown leads the team with 245 rushing yards and is averaging 8 yards per carry.

Louisville’s defense has been strong this season, ranking 15th nationally by allowing just 16 points per game. In their recent matchup against Notre Dame, they gave up 31 points but limited the Fighting Irish to 283 total yards, including 120 rushing yards on 29 attempts and 163 passing yards.

Opponents are averaging 95.5 rushing yards per game against Louisville, ranking the Cardinals 25th in the country. Through the air, quarterbacks have a passer rating of 84.7 and are averaging 176.8 passing yards per game, completing 64.6% of their throws.

Our projections have Louisville winning this matchup 30-19 at home, and with SMU coming in as -7 point favorites, we would lean towards Louisville to cover the spread.

No. 22 Louisville Hopes to Return versus SMU

A misfortune at Notre Dame last week dropped No. 22 Louisville from the positions of the unbeaten. Nonetheless, the Cardinals left away with growth opportunities that second-year mentor Jeff Brohm accepts will assist them with working on pushing ahead.

“There are a wide range of things to tidy up, however you will have that while you’re confronting great football teams consistently,” Brohm said. “We simply need to figure out how to be more honed with the turnover fight, attempt to restrict enormous plays, execute in crucial time circumstances, have a decent arrangement for that and be better.”

The Cardinals will plan to apply those examples when they have SMU for an Atlantic Coast Conference matchup on Saturday.

Louisville Looks to Fix Mix-ups After Notre Dame Misfortune

In spite of outgaining Notre Dame 395-280 in complete yardage, Louisville (3-1, 1-0 ACC) made an excessive number of basic mistakes to get a triumph. The Cardinals fell 31-24 in the wake of committing three turnovers, permitting three sacks, and being hailed multiple times for 50 yards. One especially expensive punishment was a deferral of-game approach a critical fourth-and-1 play late, which eventually prompted a turnover on downs.

Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough, a Texas Tech move, tossed for 264 yards and three touchdowns in the game, proceeding with his hot beginning to the season. Shough has finished 65% of his passes for 1,114 yards with 11 touchdowns and just a single capture in 117 endeavors this season.

His top objective, Alabama move Ja’Corey Streams, has been great also. Streams has 22 gets for 368 yards and four touchdowns up until this point, including two scores against Notre Dame .

Notwithstanding, Louisville should zero in on safeguarding the ball better, as SMU’s guard drives the FBS with 14 action items in five games.

SMU Enjoying some real success After Prevailing Win Over Florida State

SMU (4-1, 1-0 ACC) comes into this matchup off the rear of a telling 42-16 triumph over Florida State in their ACC debut. The Mustangs’ guard was vital to the success, compelling three block attempts, including one that Kobe Wilson returned for a 82-yard score in the final quarter to seal the game.

“On third down, they get exceptionally extraordinary and they come after the quarterback,” Brohm said of SMU’s protection. “They do a few things that different teams aren’t forceful doing, so I give them credit. They’re all around trained and they’re having confidence in the thing they’re doing.”

While Florida State has failed to meet expectations comparative with their preseason positioning, SMU’s success was a significant assertion. It denoted a huge second for the Mustangs, who haven’t been in a power conference starting around 1995, when the Southwest Conference disbanded.

Adjusted Offense Powers SMU’s Prosperity

SMU is averaging 42.2 focuses per game this season, with a fair hostile assault that racks up 419.4 yards per game. The Mustangs have been compelling both on the ground and through the air, averaging north of 200 yards for every game in every classification. Miami move Brashard Smith drives the surging assault with 509 yards and seven touchdowns.

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On protection, SMU has been sharp in four of its five games, holding rivals to a normal of 16.3 places. The main game where the guard battled was a high-scoring 66-42 win over TCU.

“I don’t have any idea what to say regarding our protection,” SMU mentor Rhett Lashlee said. “They continue to answer. That is the thing we need to do. … It’s a demonstration of the difficult work and devotion of our protective staff and players.”

Noteworthy Matchup Among Louisville and SMU

Saturday’s down will check the first gathering among Louisville and SMU in quite a while. The Mustangs won both past experiences in 1983 and 1984, outscoring the Cardinals 65-13 across those games. This time, in any case, Louisville desires to turn around that pattern and return from their most memorable loss of the time.