Virginia Cavaliers vs Louisville Cardinals Picks and Predictions October 12th 2024

Coming into this week seven matchup, the Louisville Cardinals are on the road vs. the Virginia Cavaliers at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville. Kick-off is set for 3:30 ET, and the game can be seen on ACCN. Louisville is favored by -7.5 points, and the over/under line is currently 54.5 points. Louisville has a 3-2 record, while Virginia is 4-1 on the season.

Louisville vs. Virginia Key Information

Louisville enters Week 7 with a 3-2 record, ranked 16th in our power rankings. They have a 91.9% chance of becoming bowl-eligible but only a 4.9% chance of winning the Atlantic Coast. The Cardinals are 2-1 at home and 0-1 on the road this season.

Against the spread, Louisville is 2-2, with a +19 average scoring margin. They’ve gone 2-1 ATS as the favorite and 0-1 as the underdog.

Their over/under record stands at 3-1, with an average of 58.2 points per game. This week’s line is 54.5, slightly above their average line of 53.4 points.

Louisville’s offense is ranked 18th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 7, and they are also 18th in points per game, averaging 38.6. Tyler Shough has thrown for 1,443 yards and has a passer rating of 118. He has 13 touchdowns to just two interceptions, completing 64.5% of his passes.

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Louisville ranks 22nd in passing yards per game, with 303.4, and they are 29th in completions per game. They are 25th in completion percentage, connecting on 66.5% of their passes. Ja’Corey Brooks leads the receiving corps with 489 yards and six touchdowns on 25 catches. On the ground, Louisville averages 179.2 rushing yards per game.

Louisville’s defense, ranked 26th nationally, has allowed an average of 19.6 points per game this season. In their recent game against SMU, they gave up 34 points, allowing 25 first downs and 485 total yards, including 194 rushing yards and 291 passing yards.

Opponents have averaged 115.2 rushing yards per game on 32.8 attempts against Louisville, while quarterbacks have posted a 92.2 passer rating, completing 67.4% of their passes for an average of 199.6 yards per game.

Virginia enters Week 7 with a 4-1 record, but their chances of winning the Atlantic Coast stand at just 0.5%. However, they have a 58% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. At home, they are 1-1, while they’ve gone 2-0 on the road this season.

The Cavaliers have been favored in four of their five games, going 3-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +7.4 points per game, and they are 2-1-1 against the spread this season.

Virginia’s over/under record is 2-2, with their games averaging 50.6 points. The average over/under line for their games is 53.8 points, and this week’s line is set at 54.5 points.

Heading into week 7, Virginia’s offense is averaging 29 points per game, placing them 49th nationally. They are ranked 69th in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Anthony Colandrea has thrown for 1,211 yards, completing 66.4% of his passes, with eight touchdowns and four interceptions. His passer rating is 98.

Virginia is 44th in passing attempts per game and 35th in completions, averaging 252 yards through the air. They are converting just 33.8% of their third downs. On the ground, they average 181 rushing yards per game. Xavier Brown leads the rushing attack with 315 yards and an impressive 8 yards per carry. Malachi Fields has 412 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Virginia’s defense played a key role in their recent 24-14 win over Boston College, allowing just 14 points. They held the Eagles to 65 rushing yards on 29 attempts but gave up 254 passing yards, while also forcing two interceptions.

On the season, Virginia ranks 33rd nationally, giving up 21.6 points per game. They’ve allowed 113.2 rushing yards per game (36th), but 266.4 passing yards per game, which ranks 143rd in the country.

Our projections have Virginia winning this matchup 26-21 as they take on Louisville in week seven of the college football season. Virginia comes into the game as +7.5 point underdogs, and we like their chances to pull off the straight-up win.

With the over/under line sitting at 54.5 points, our recommendation is to take the under, as we project a combined 47 points in this game.

Louisville Seeks Bounce-Back Performance vs. Virginia

After dropping out of the Top 25 following back-to-back seven-point losses, Louisville heads to Charlottesville, Virginia, on Saturday for a crucial Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) contest against a surging Virginia squad. The Cardinals (3-2, 1-1 ACC) are in need of a rebound after two tough defeats, while the Cavaliers (4-1, 2-0 ACC) are riding high on a strong start to conference play.

Louisville’s Defensive Communication Struggles

Louisville began the season with high expectations, climbing to No. 15 in the Associated Press poll. However, consecutive losses—31-24 at then-No. 16 Notre Dame and 34-27 at home to SMU—have exposed some weaknesses, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Head coach Jeff Brohm emphasized the importance of improved communication on defense as the Cardinals look to avoid another setback.

“Just like when you’re playing defense in basketball, you have to talk,” Brohm explained. “It’s going to be loud, so we have to be better at communicating.”

In their losses, Louisville struggled to maintain early momentum. Against Notre Dame, the Cardinals found themselves trailing 21-7 in the first quarter and never fully recovered. In last week’s game against SMU, Louisville again fell behind, entering halftime down by 11 points. Despite late rallies in both contests, the Cardinals were unable to close the gap.

Brohm acknowledged that the team’s issues are varied but fixable.

“I think it’s a hodgepodge of things that happen here and there that need to be cleaned up to make sure we don’t put ourselves in those situations,” Brohm said. “We all need to play better. We all need to coach better. It starts with me and goes all the way down.”

Virginia’s Momentum and Comeback Spirit

On the other side of the field, Virginia is enjoying a strong start to its season, especially in ACC play. The Cavaliers are coming off an impressive 24-14 victory over Boston College, where they scored 18 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to secure the win. This marks the second time this season that Virginia has engineered a dramatic fourth-quarter comeback. In their ACC opener against Wake Forest on September 7, the Cavaliers outscored the Demon Deacons 14-0 in the final quarter to pull off a 31-30 victory.

After consecutive three-win seasons, Virginia was picked to finish 16th in the 17-team ACC in preseason polls. However, the Cavaliers have defied expectations, beginning the week as one of only five unbeaten teams in ACC play. Defensive end Chico Bennett Jr. attributes the team’s success to their resilient mindset.

“It’s a great feeling, obviously, to be 4-1,” Bennett said. “But overall, we know what we’ve got to do, because Coach (Tony) Elliott always emphasizes reload, recalibrate and attack. And so that’s the mindset.”

With a defense that has shown a knack for making timely stops and an offense that can step up in clutch moments, Virginia will be eager to continue their momentum against a Louisville team that has struggled to finish games strong.

Key Matchup: Louisville vs. Virginia’s Fourth-Quarter Fortunes

A key storyline for this matchup will be how both teams perform in the fourth quarter. Virginia has proven it can rally from behind, as seen in their back-to-back fourth-quarter comebacks against Boston College and Wake Forest. On the other hand, Louisville’s inability to finish games has been costly. The Cardinals were outscored in the final quarter of both of their recent losses, allowing opponents to maintain their leads.

In last season’s matchup, Louisville managed to outscore Virginia 17-3 in the fourth quarter, securing a 31-24 victory. The Cardinals will need to channel a similar effort this weekend if they hope to halt Virginia’s winning streak and regain their footing in the ACC standings.

Louisville’s Offensive Weapons

Louisville’s offense has shown flashes of brilliance, but they need more consistent production to take pressure off their defense. Quarterback Jack Plummer has been solid, but the team will need to limit the turnovers and penalties that have plagued them in recent games. Wide receiver Jamari Thrash has emerged as a key playmaker, leading the team in receiving yards, while running back Jawhar Jordan provides a balanced ground attack.

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If the Cardinals can clean up their offensive execution and eliminate self-inflicted mistakes, they’ll have a chance to take control of the game early and avoid the need for a fourth-quarter comeback.

Virginia’s Balanced Attack

Virginia’s offense has thrived under head coach Tony Elliott, showing a balanced attack with both the pass and run game. Quarterback Tony Muskett has been efficient in leading the Cavaliers’ offense, and the team’s ability to come up with big plays in crucial moments has made them a formidable opponent in ACC play.

Defensively, Virginia has been opportunistic, with timely stops and takeaways that have fueled their comebacks. Bennett and the defensive front will look to put pressure on Louisville’s offensive line and disrupt the timing of their passing game.

Historical Rivalry and What’s at Stake

Louisville holds a slight edge in the all-time series, leading 7-5 after winning the last two meetings. Last November, the Cardinals secured a 31-24 victory in a game where they dominated the final quarter. Both teams understand the significance of this matchup, with Louisville aiming to avoid a third straight loss and Virginia looking to stay unbeaten in ACC play.

With both teams fighting to stay competitive in the conference, Saturday’s matchup could have significant implications for their respective seasons. For Louisville, it’s an opportunity to prove that they can still be a force in the ACC, while Virginia is eager to continue its surprising rise and solidify its status as a contender.

The Road Ahead

As Louisville looks to bounce back from two tough losses, the focus will be on improving communication and execution, especially in critical moments. Virginia, meanwhile, will aim to keep its momentum going, relying on the resilience and belief that has powered them to a 4-1 record.

Saturday’s game in Charlottesville will be a test of both teams’ resolve, with Louisville hoping to stop its slide and Virginia determined to prove that its early success is no fluke. As the ACC season heats up, this matchup promises to be an exciting clash of two teams with plenty to fight for.