Colorado State Rams vs Miami (oh) Redhawks Picks and Predictions December 28th 2024

Colorado State Rams vs Miami (OH) RedHawks December 28th 2024

The Miami (OH) RedHawks and Colorado State Rams are set to face off in the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl, with kickoff scheduled for 4:30 ET on Saturday, December 28th, at Arizona Stadium in Tucson. The game is being played on a neutral site, and the CW will be handling the television broadcast. Miami (OH) enters the game with an 8-5 record, while Colorado State is 8-4. Miami (OH) is the slight -1.5-point favorite, and the over/under line is currently at 43.5 points.

Miami (OH) vs. Colorado State Key Information

• Teams: RedHawks at Rams
• Where: Arizona Stadium Tucson
• Date: Saturday, December 28th
• Betting Odds MIAOH -125 | COLST +104 O/U 43.5

The RedHawks Can Win If…

Miami (OH) heads into their Week 1 matchup against Colorado State with an 8-5 record. They’ve gone 4-2 at home and 3-3 on the road this season. The RedHawks have been favored in seven of their 13 games, posting a 6-1 record as the favorite.

Miami’s ATS record stands at 6-6, with a +3.7 average scoring margin. They’ve gone 4-3 against the spread as favorites and are 3-3 ATS both at home and on the road.

Their over/under record is 5-6-1, with an average line of 44.5 points. Miami’s games have averaged 41.5 points, and this week’s line is set at 43.5 points.

Miami (OH) enters week 1 ranked 98th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 22.6 points per game. They have struggled on third downs, converting just 33.1% of their attempts, and their run game has produced 130.3 yards per game.

Quarterback Brett Gabbert has thrown for 2,737 yards, with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 89. Miami ranks 54th in passing yards per game. Javon Tracy leads the receiving corps with 818 yards and seven touchdowns.

Miami (OH)’s defense, ranked 19th nationally, has allowed 18.9 points per game this season. They’ve given up 137.9 rushing yards per game and 184.5 passing yards, with opposing quarterbacks posting a 71.3 passer rating.

In their recent game, Miami allowed 38 points, surrendering 468 total yards, including 233 rushing yards and 235 passing yards, while forcing no turnovers.

• Through their last three games, the Miami (OH) RedHawks have a record of 2-1. In terms of betting, the team went 2-1 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 1-2.
• Miami (OH) has put together a record of 8-2 in their last ten games (regular season). Against the spread, Miami (OH) went 5-5 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 5-4-1.

The Rams Can Win If…

Colorado State enters Week 1 against Miami (OH) with an 8-4 record. They’ve been strong at home, going 5-1, while their road record stands at 2-2. The Rams are unbeaten as favorites this season, boasting a 7-0 record, but they’ve gone 0-3 as underdogs.

Against the spread, Colorado State is 6-4, with a +0.7 average scoring margin. They’ve covered in six of seven games as favorites but are 0-3 ATS as underdogs. At home, they are 4-2 ATS and 4-1 when favored.

Their over/under record is 3-7, with an average line of 52 points. This week’s line is 43.5 points, the lowest they’ve faced this season. On average, their games have totaled 49.3 points, with an average margin of -3.2 points against the line.

Colorado State’s offense is averaging 25 points per game, ranking 67th in the nation, and they are 103rd in our offensive power rankings heading into this week. Their third-down conversion rate is low, at 35%, and their passing game is producing 211 yards per game. They are 70th in passing attempts per game.

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi leads the passing attack with 2,456 yards and a 62.1% completion rate. He has thrown 13 touchdowns and six interceptions, with a passer rating of 90. Avery Morrow has rushed for 956 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Caleb Goodie has 436 receiving yards and four touchdowns.

Colorado State’s defense has allowed an average of 24.3 points per game this season, including 37 points in their recent game against Utah State. They gave up 486 total yards, with 297 rushing yards on 48 attempts and 189 passing yards, while also forcing two interceptions.

Opponents have averaged 156 rushing yards per game and 238.5 passing yards against Colorado State, ranking them 125th in the nation. Quarterbacks have completed 60.6% of their passes, with a passer rating of 88.3 against the Rams’ defense.

• Through their last three games, the Colorado State Rams have a record of 3-0. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 1-2 in those same games.
• Across Colorado State’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 8-2. Across these games, their ATS record was just 4-6, while posting an over-under record of 3-7.

The Lean

We have Miami (OH) as the -1.5 point spread favorite on the road vs. Colorado State in a week one matchup. Our projected final score is 25-21 in favor of Miami (OH), so we like the RedHawks to cover the spread.

For the over/under, with the line set at 43.5 points, we see a combined score of 46 points, making the over the best play for this matchup.

Miami (Ohio) and Colorado State Adjust to Key Departures for Arizona Bowl Showdown

As Miami (Ohio) and Colorado State prepare to square off in the Arizona Bowl on Saturday in Tucson, both teams are grappling with significant player losses to the transfer portal. The matchup will test each program’s depth and adaptability as they look to cap their seasons with a victory.

Miami (Ohio): Navigating Offensive and Defensive Gaps

Miami (8-5), fresh off a loss in the MAC Championship to Ohio, will be without its top two wide receivers, Javon Tracy and Reggie Virgil, who transferred to Minnesota and Texas Tech, respectively. Combined, the duo accounted for over 1,600 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns this season.

Coach Chuck Martin acknowledged the challenges brought by the transfer portal:

“It’s kind of insane, to be honest… We’ll lose some real good kids in the portal, but we’ll also gain some good ones. It’s just crazy.”

Other key losses include cornerback Raion Strader, who joined Auburn after leading the team with 17 pass breakups, and veteran offensive tackle Will Jados, now headed to Texas Tech.

Miami will rely heavily on veteran leadership to fill the voids:

• Quarterback Brett Gabbert has been the team’s offensive anchor, throwing for 2,737 yards and 21 touchdowns despite 11 interceptions this season.
• Running back Keyon Mozee has been consistent on the ground, rushing for 1,073 yards and four touchdowns.
• On defense, Matt Salopek leads the way with 113 tackles, becoming the first player in Miami history to record four 100-tackle seasons.

Colorado State: Balancing Losses and Momentum

Like their opponents, Colorado State (8-4) is also facing major absences at wide receiver. Caleb Goodie (436 yards, four touchdowns) transferred to Cincinnati, and Jamari Person (386 yards, one touchdown) remains undecided on his next destination. The Rams will turn to Armani Winfield (37 catches, 338 yards, two touchdowns) as their top pass-catching option.

Colorado State has also lost defensive standout Buom Jock, who led the team with 100 tackles, to the transfer portal.

Despite these challenges, the Rams have momentum, having won six of their last seven games while committing just seven turnovers in that span. Key contributors include:

• Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, who threw for 2,475 yards, 13 touchdowns, and seven interceptions while completing 61.8 percent of his passes.
• Running back Avery Morrow, who amassed 956 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.
• Linebacker Chase Wilson, the defense’s new leader with 91 tackles.

Coach Jay Norvell is optimistic about his team’s ability to adapt:

“They’ve adjusted, just like most teams in the bowl season have adjusted to the team that they have available.”

Key Matchups to Watch

Miami’s Passing Game vs. Colorado State’s Secondary

With Tracy and Virgil gone, Cade McDonald will need to step up for Miami. Colorado State’s secondary, led by Chase Wilson, must capitalize on Gabbert’s tendency to throw interceptions.

Colorado State’s Rushing Attack vs. Miami’s Defensive Front

The Rams will lean on Avery Morrow to establish the run game. Miami’s Matt Salopek and his defensive unit will need to stay disciplined to prevent big plays on the ground.

Special Teams and Turnovers

Both teams have experienced roster disruptions that could affect depth and situational play. Limiting mistakes and seizing opportunities will be critical in a closely contested game.

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What’s at Stake

• Miami (Ohio): A win would mark a nine-win season and consecutive bowl victories, cementing a turnaround for the program.
• Colorado State: A victory would cap a season of growth under Jay Norvell and provide momentum for 2024.

Prediction

Both teams face challenges from key losses, but Colorado State’s balanced offense and recent momentum give them the edge. Miami will rely on veteran leadership, but Gabbert’s inconsistency could be a liability against an opportunistic Rams defense.

Prediction: Colorado State 27, Miami (Ohio) 23