Vanderbilt Commodores vs Tennessee Volunteers Picks and Predictions November 30th 2024

No. 8 Tennessee Faces Vanderbilt in Rivalry Showdown with Playoff Hopes on the Line

As the No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers travel west to face in-state rival Vanderbilt on Saturday, the stakes are sky-high. With Tennessee on the cusp of a College Football Playoff berth and Vanderbilt fighting to secure its first winning season in a decade, the annual rivalry game in Nashville promises to deliver plenty of drama.

Tennessee’s Playoff Path Clears Up

After a dominant 56-0 victory over UTEP last week, Tennessee (9-2, 5-2 SEC) found itself benefiting from a shakeup in the College Football Playoff rankings. Losses by higher-ranked teams like Indiana, Alabama, and Ole Miss cleared a path for the Vols to climb four spots in the rankings, putting them in position for a potential playoff berth if they defeat Vanderbilt.

Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel is keeping his team focused.
“We have to be at our best on Saturday,” Heupel said. “You’ve got to understand you’re going to get their best, and their best is really good.”

However, the Vols can’t overlook the potential pitfalls of SEC road games. Double-digit favorites like Alabama and Ole Miss both suffered surprising losses on the road this season, highlighting the challenges of playing in hostile environments.

Vanderbilt’s Chance for a Landmark Victory

For Vanderbilt (6-5, 3-4 SEC), a win would not only spoil Tennessee’s playoff hopes but also mark the Commodores’ first winning season since 2013. Head coach Clark Lea, a former Vanderbilt fullback, has emphasized the personal significance of this game.
“The unique thing about this game is that it’s extremely personal to me,” Lea said. “I grew up in this city, I grew up following the program, I played in this program.”

Vanderbilt has thrived as an underdog this season, pulling off upset wins against Virginia Tech, Alabama, and Kentucky, and clinching a road victory at Auburn. The Commodores have also excelled in turnover margin, ranking second in the nation with just six turnovers, and boast the country’s top-rated special teams unit.

Key Matchups to Watch

1. Diego Pavia vs. Tennessee’s Defense: Vanderbilt’s dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia will need to play his best game to challenge Tennessee’s elite defense, which ranks fourth in scoring (13.09 points per game) and sixth in total defense (284.3 yards per game). Pavia has been battling through injuries but remains the focal point of Vanderbilt’s offense with 2,029 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and 671 rushing yards.
2. Dylan Sampson vs. Vanderbilt’s Front Seven: Tennessee’s offensive strategy revolves around running back Dylan Sampson, who has racked up 1,307 yards and 22 touchdowns this season. Vanderbilt’s defense will need to contain him early to avoid being overwhelmed by Tennessee’s high-tempo attack.
3. Tempo Battle: Tennessee averages 74.1 plays per game, while Vanderbilt plays at a slower pace with 61.0 snaps per game. The Commodores will aim to control possession, extend drives, and keep Tennessee’s explosive offense off the field.
4. James Pearce Jr. vs. Vanderbilt’s Offensive Line: Tennessee’s star defensive lineman, a Walter Camp Player of the Year semifinalist, will look to disrupt Pavia and take advantage of Vanderbilt’s offensive line, which has struggled to protect its quarterback in recent weeks.

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What’s at Stake

For Tennessee, this game represents a final hurdle on the road to a potential CFP berth. Winning in Nashville would solidify their resume and potentially punch their ticket to the postseason. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has a chance to cap off its season with a signature victory and build momentum for the future under Clark Lea.

With the Vols entering as 11-point favorites and Vanderbilt’s history of pulling off upsets, this matchup is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing in-state showdowns of the season. Will Tennessee secure its playoff dreams, or will Vanderbilt play spoiler in front of its home crowd? The answer awaits on Saturday in Nashville.