Brigham Young Cougars vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Picks and Predictions October 18th 2024

Jake Retzlaff looks to keep No. 13 BYU rolling past Oklahoma St.

BYU is the heavy favorite in this week eight matchup against Oklahoma State, with the point spread set at -9.5 in their favor. The game is scheduled for 10:15 ET at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo and will be broadcast on ESPN. BYU comes in with a perfect 6-0 record, while Oklahoma State is 3-3 on the season. The over/under line is currently 55.5 points.

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Oklahoma State vs. BYU Key Information

• Teams: Cowboys at Cougars
• Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium Provo
• Date: Friday, October 18th
• Betting Odds BYU -357 | OKST +275 O/U 55.5

The Cowboys Can Win If…

Oklahoma State enters Week 8 with a 3-3 record, facing BYU on the road. They are 1-1 in away games and 0-2 at home. The Cowboys have a 60.4% chance of becoming bowl-eligible, according to projections, and they are ranked 48th in our power rankings.

Their average scoring margin this season is +3 points, but they are 1-3 against the spread. Oklahoma State is 1-1 ATS on the road and 0-2 at home. They’ve been favored in two games, going 1-1 ATS as the favorite.

The over/under line for this week is set at 55.5 points. Oklahoma State’s games have averaged 57.3 points, with an average over/under line of 60.1 points. Their over/under record stands at 1-3 for the season.

Oklahoma State’s offense is centered around their passing game, ranking 10th in passing attempts per game. They are 16th in passing yards, averaging 302.7 yards per game, and 21st in completions. Overall, they are 41st in scoring, with 30.2 points per game, and are ranked 57th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 8.

Alan Bowman leads the team with 1,675 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. He has a passer rating of 88 and a completion percentage of 59.5%. De’Zhaun Stribling is the top receiver with 556 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Cowboys’ rushing game is struggling, averaging only 89.3 yards per game.

Oklahoma State’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 27.2 points per game. In their recent 38-14 loss to West Virginia, they gave up 38 points, allowing 356 total yards, including 150 rushing yards and 206 passing yards, though they did force two interceptions.

Opponents have averaged 235.5 rushing yards per game against Oklahoma State, ranking them 171st nationally. Through the air, they’ve allowed 258.5 passing yards per game, with quarterbacks completing 57.6% of their passes and posting an 86.7 passer rating.

• Through their last three regular season contests, Oklahoma State has a record of 0-3. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 0-3 and an over-under mark of 1-2.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Oklahoma State Cowboys have gone 6-4 straight up. Against the spread, Oklahoma State went 4-6 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Cougars Can Win If…

BYU enters Week 8 against Oklahoma State with a perfect 6-0 record, and they are 100% likely to be bowl-eligible. They have a 19.5% chance of winning the Big 12 and the 13th best odds of making the College Football Playoff at 33.7%.

The Cougars have a +18 average scoring margin this season and are 5-0 against the spread. They’ve been favored in only two games, going 2-0 as favorites and 3-0 as underdogs ATS.

BYU’s over/under record is 3-2, with their games averaging 50.7 points. This week’s line is 55.5 points, higher than their average line of 48.1 points this season.

BYU’s offense is averaging 34.3 points per game, ranking 25th in the nation, and they are 38th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 8. Jake Retzlaff has thrown for 1,424 yards, with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 98.

BYU is 103rd in third-down conversions, making just 30.6% of their attempts. They are averaging 158 rushing yards per game. Hinckley Ropati leads the team with 154 rushing yards. Chase Roberts has 395 receiving yards and two touchdowns this season.

BYU’s defense has been a strong point this season, ranking 12th nationally by allowing just 16.3 points per game. In their recent game against Arizona, they gave up 19 points but also forced three interceptions. Arizona managed 390 total yards, including 115 rushing yards on 31 attempts and 275 passing yards.

Opponents are averaging 121.5 rushing yards per game on 32.5 attempts against BYU, while quarterbacks have posted a passer rating of just 50.8, the third-lowest in the country. BYU’s defense has allowed 188.3 passing yards per game, with a completion rate of 50.6%, ranking 9th nationally.

• The BYU Cougars have posted a 3-0 record in their previous three games. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 3-0 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 2-1 in those same games.
• The BYU Cougars have gone 8-2 over their last ten regular season games. The team’s record vs the spread was just 7-3, in addition to an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

Our projections have BYU winning this matchup by a score of 25-24, so we like Oklahoma State to cover the +9.5 point spread as the road underdog.

For the over/under, the line is set at 55.5 points, and with our projection of 49 total points, the under looks like the best bet.

College Football Picks & Previews

In July, BYU was pegged to finish 13th in its inaugural Big 12 season, far from a title contender. Fast forward to October, and the Cougars have shattered expectations, rising to No. 13 in the Associated Press Top 25. After a dominant 41-19 win over Arizona last Saturday, BYU boasts a perfect 6-0 record, including a 3-0 conference start.

As the Cougars prepare for their Friday night showdown against Oklahoma State in Provo, the stakes are rising. For some players, merely securing a bowl berth is no longer the endgame. They’re dreaming bigger, with eyes on the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.

“We’re bowl-eligible,” said BYU cornerback Jakob Robinson. “But that’s not what I’ve been thinking of. I just want to get to the national championship.”

BYU’s Championship Aspirations Gain Momentum

BYU’s performance so far certainly warrants talk of bigger things. The Cougars have outscored opponents by a wide margin, 206-98, and claimed impressive victories over high-ranked opponents. Their 38-9 drubbing of Kansas State, now No. 17, and an 18-15 road win against 5-1 SMU, ranked No. 21, bolster their resume.

Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has been a standout, throwing 14 touchdown passes and completing 60.3% of his passes. With Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter providing strong wide receiver support, BYU’s offense is versatile and dangerous. On defense, the Cougars have been relentless, with eight different players recording sacks and consistently forcing turnovers.

The one glaring weakness? A subpar third-down conversion rate of just 30.6%, ranking among the nation’s worst. Still, it hasn’t slowed BYU’s success, as they’ve managed to dominate in other facets of the game.

“I’m really excited for what we’re going to do the rest of the season,” said Retzlaff. “We just want to get better and better every week. We’re only 13th in the country; we’re better than that.”

Oklahoma State: A Season in Freefall

While BYU is riding high, Oklahoma State (3-3, 0-3) finds itself at a crossroads. Once viewed as a potential contender, the Cowboys’ season has unraveled with three straight conference losses. Their last outing, a 38-14 blowout at the hands of West Virginia on October 5, left the team searching for answers.

Oklahoma State’s offense has faltered badly, failing to live up to preseason expectations. Star running back Ollie Gordon II, who led the nation last year with 1,732 rushing yards, has struggled mightily this season. Averaging under 4 yards per carry, Gordon’s production is on pace for less than half of last year’s total. Quarterback Alan Bowman has also had a rough campaign, throwing eight interceptions in just six games.

These struggles have led to instability within the lineup. Coach Mike Gundy has benched Gordon twice in the last three games and isn’t committing to starting him against BYU. “We’re working all of our guys, getting them good quality work,” Gundy said, hinting at potential changes to the lineup.

Oklahoma State’s defensive woes have compounded their issues. The Cowboys were gashed for a whopping 389 rushing yards by West Virginia, and Kansas State also ran all over them, piling up 300 yards on the ground in a 42-20 rout on September 28.

“We need to be a better run-fit defense and minimize a few of the big plays,” Gundy admitted, acknowledging the need for significant defensive improvements.

Retzlaff and the BYU Offense Pose a Major Threat

For Oklahoma State, containing BYU’s offense will be a daunting challenge. Jake Retzlaff is proving himself as a key playmaker, and with reliable targets like Chase Roberts and Darius Lassiter, BYU’s passing game is formidable. The Cougars have shown they can put up points quickly, capitalizing on mismatches in the secondary and pushing the pace.

Additionally, BYU’s defensive strength, especially their ability to generate pressure on the quarterback, could spell trouble for Bowman, who has been prone to turnovers this season. Oklahoma State’s offensive line will need to provide better protection to avoid another implosion.

BYU Eyes a Playoff Spot, but Oklahoma State Can’t Be Overlooked

While BYU seems to be on a fast track to the College Football Playoff, Friday night’s game against Oklahoma State offers a potential trap. History between the two teams suggests a closer contest than the current records might indicate. The Cowboys have won all three prior meetings, including a dramatic 40-34 double-overtime victory last year to close out the regular season.

Still, this is a different BYU team, playing with more confidence, momentum, and depth on both sides of the ball. The Cougars are motivated not just to win but to continue building a championship-worthy resume.

Key Factors to Watch:

1. BYU’s Third-Down Efficiency: While they’ve excelled elsewhere, BYU’s struggles on third down have been glaring. Improving this area could make them even more dangerous.
2. Oklahoma State’s Run Defense: The Cowboys have been vulnerable to the run, and BYU will likely exploit this weakness. If Oklahoma State can’t tighten up, BYU could control the clock and dictate the game’s tempo.
3. Turnovers: With Bowman’s struggles and BYU’s defense excelling at forcing mistakes, turnovers could be a deciding factor in this game.

Final Thoughts: BYU’s Path Forward

For BYU, this game represents an opportunity to further cement their status as legitimate national contenders. A win would not only keep them undefeated but also push them closer to their goal of securing a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is looking for a midseason turnaround after a string of disappointing performances. For them, this game could provide the spark needed to salvage their season, but they will need both their offense and defense to step up significantly.

One thing is certain: with BYU’s momentum and Oklahoma State’s unpredictability, Friday night’s matchup promises to be a pivotal moment in both teams’ seasons.