Brigham Young Cougars vs Kansas State Wildcats Picks and Predictions September 21st 2024

No. 13 Kansas State opens Big 12 slate at fellow unbeaten BYU

ESPN is covering the week four matchup between the Kansas State Wildcats and the BYU Cougars, set for 10:30 ET on Saturday, September 21st, at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo. Both teams enter the game with 3-0 records. The Wildcats are favored by -7 points, and the over/under line is currently 47.5 points.

Kansas State vs. BYU Key Information

• Teams: Wildcats at Cougars
• Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium Provo
• Date: Saturday, September 21st
• Betting Odds KANST -267 | BYU +215 O/U 47.5

The Wildcats Can Win If…

Kansas State is now 3-0 after a 31-7 victory over Arizona. The Wildcats, who were -7 point favorites, covered the spread, and the game’s total score of 38 points was well below the over/under line of 61 points.

After a 7-7 tie in the first quarter, Kansas State took control, shutting out Arizona in the second half. The Wildcats led 14-7 at halftime and then added 17 more points in the second half while keeping Arizona off the board.

In their 31-7 win over Arizona, Kansas State’s offense totaled 393 yards, with 237 of those coming on the ground. The Wildcats picked up 21 first downs, and Avery Johnson led the way through the air, throwing for 156 yards and two touchdowns while completing 60.9% of his passes. Jayce Brown was his top target, hauling in three receptions for 60 yards.

Avery Johnson also contributed to the ground game, rushing for 110 yards on 17 carries, including a long run of 29 yards. Kansas State’s ground attack was effective, averaging 5.9 yards per carry, and their balanced offensive approach resulted in 31 points on the scoreboard.

In their most recent game, Kansas State’s defense held Arizona to just seven points and 324 total yards. The Wildcats’ defense was particularly strong against the run, allowing just 56 yards on the ground. However, they did give up 268 passing yards on 26 completions, with Arizona attempting 42 passes. Kansas State’s defense also came up with one interception in the game.

• Over their last three games, the Kansas State Wildcats have gone 3-0 straight up. However, they have only gone 1-2 vs. the spread over this stretch. Their over-under record in these three games was 1-2.
• The Kansas State Wildcats have gone 8-2 over their last ten regular season games. Their record vs the spread sits at 6-4 in these matchups, while posting a 4-6 over-under mark.

The Cougars Can Win If…

BYU is now 3-0 after their 34-14 road win over Wyoming. The Cougars, who were -9.5 point favorites, not only won but also covered the spread. This game’s over/under was set at 40 points, but the teams combined for 48 points, hitting the over.

BYU took an early 7-0 lead and, after Wyoming closed the gap to 17-7 at halftime, the Cougars dominated the third quarter, outscoring the Cowboys 17-0. Wyoming added a late touchdown in the fourth quarter, but the outcome was already decided in favor of BYU.

BYU’s offense was led by quarterback Jake Retzlaff, who threw for 291 yards and three touchdowns while completing 61.1% of his passes. Retzlaff’s top target, Chase Roberts, caught six passes for 129 yards.

The Cougars’ offense put up 475 total yards, with 318 yards coming through the air. They also picked up 23 first downs. On the ground, BYU rushed for 157 yards, with Retzlaff contributing 62 yards on six carries.

BYU’s defense was dominant in their most recent game, holding Wyoming to just 223 total yards. The Cougars gave up only 83 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground, and Wyoming’s passing game wasn’t much more effective, with 140 yards on 14 completions. BYU’s defense also picked off a pass and kept Wyoming out of the end zone for the entire second half.

• Over their last three regular season games, the BYU Cougars have gone 1-2 straight up. Across this span, their ATS record sits at 2-1 to go along with an over-under mark of 2-1.
• BYU has put together a record of 7-3 in their last ten games (regular season). In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 5-5 and an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

Our projection for the Kansas State vs. BYU matchup in week four of the college football season is a 27-22 win for the Wildcats. Kansas State is currently -7 point favorites, and we like BYU to cover the spread as the underdog.

The over/under line is set at 47.5 points, and with our projected score of 49 points, we recommend taking the over.

Expert NCAAF Handicappers

No. 13 Kansas State travels to Provo, Utah, to face fellow unbeaten BYU in what promises to be a thrilling Big 12 Conference opener. Both teams enter the game with 3-0 records, and the matchup marks the first time these two programs will meet as Big 12 opponents. As both squads look to remain undefeated, the clash at LaVell Edwards Stadium is set to test their mettle in an intense environment.

Historical Context: A Rare Matchup

While this is the first meeting between Kansas State and BYU as Big 12 rivals, they have faced off eight times in the past, with each team winning four games. Their most memorable encounter came in the 1997 Cotton Bowl, where BYU sealed a 19-15 victory with a dramatic game-saving interception. Kansas State’s last trip to Provo ended in a 39-0 loss in 1977, adding a historical layer to this important conference opener.

Challenges and Unfamiliar Territory for Kansas State

Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman is well aware of the unique challenges his team will face in BYU’s notoriously tough home environment, especially with the high-altitude conditions of Provo. “It’s going to be a tough environment,” Klieman noted. “A lot of respect for Kalani (Sitake) and BYU. It’s going to be a heck of an atmosphere and a great test for us.”

Klieman’s team has already navigated a variety of climates and game-day conditions this season, from sweltering heat and humidity during their win at Tulane to the cooler, elevated conditions they will encounter at BYU. “What a crazy league we’re in,” Klieman said, reflecting on the geographical and climatic diversity of the Big 12.

BYU Looking to Build on Momentum

BYU enters the matchup fresh off a convincing 34-14 road win against Wyoming. Head coach Kalani Sitake understands that the intensity is about to rise as conference play begins. “The competition is going to get tougher now,” Sitake remarked. “It didn’t go perfectly, but there were some really good things to work on, some really good things to get better at.”

BYU’s gradual improvement is something Sitake is optimistic about, and he believes his team is ready for the step up in competition.

Contrasting Styles of Play

One of the most intriguing aspects of this matchup is the stark contrast in offensive strategies.

• BYU’s Passing Attack: The Cougars rank fifth in the Big 12 in passing, averaging 289.3 yards per game through the air. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has been instrumental in their success, throwing for 291 yards and three touchdowns in their recent win over Wyoming. Notably, Retzlaff is also a dual-threat, leading BYU in rushing during that game with 62 yards on six carries.
• Kansas State’s Ground Game: On the other side, Kansas State leans heavily on its rushing attack, ranking second in the conference with 244.3 rushing yards per game. Their run-heavy offense will challenge BYU’s formidable rushing defense, which ranks fourth in the Big 12, allowing just 105.7 rushing yards per game. In their dominant 31-7 win over Arizona, quarterback Avery Johnson rushed for 110 yards while completing 14-of-23 passes for 156 yards and two touchdowns. His leadership, combined with aggressive play-calling from offensive coordinator Conor Riley, has fueled K-State’s success.

Key Players to Watch

• Jake Retzlaff (BYU): Retzlaff’s dual-threat ability makes him a pivotal player for BYU. His ability to create plays both through the air and on the ground adds an extra dimension to BYU’s offense. In addition to his passing prowess, his 62-yard rushing performance against Wyoming highlighted his versatility.
• Avery Johnson (Kansas State): Johnson’s mobility and decision-making were on full display against Arizona. His 110 rushing yards, paired with 156 passing yards and two touchdowns, reflect a balanced skill set. His rapport with his coaching staff, especially Conor Riley’s aggressive play-calling, has allowed Kansas State’s offense to remain dynamic and unpredictable.

Key Matchups to Watch

• Kansas State’s Run Game vs. BYU’s Rush Defense: Kansas State will rely on its second-ranked rushing offense to dictate the pace of the game. However, BYU’s defense has been stout against the run, ranking fourth in the Big 12. How Kansas State’s offensive line handles BYU’s defensive front could be a determining factor in the outcome.
• BYU’s Aerial Attack vs. Kansas State’s Secondary: On the flip side, BYU’s strength is its passing game. Retzlaff will look to exploit Kansas State’s pass defense, which will need to be sharp against BYU’s efficient air attack. Kansas State’s ability to pressure Retzlaff and limit explosive plays will be key.

Atmosphere and Altitude: Provo’s Home-Field Advantage

Playing in Provo presents a unique challenge for visiting teams. The high-altitude environment can affect player conditioning, particularly for those unaccustomed to it. Coach Klieman’s comments on the unfamiliar conditions underscore how significant this factor could be in the game. BYU’s home field advantage is well-documented, and the Cougars will likely look to capitalize on it to wear down Kansas State over the course of the game.

The Stakes: A Critical Big 12 Showdown

With both teams entering the game undefeated, the stakes are high. This Big 12 opener will set the tone for both teams as they continue through conference play. For Kansas State, ranked 13th nationally, a win on the road would solidify their position as a contender for the Big 12 title. Meanwhile, BYU is looking to make a statement in their first season as a Big 12 member. Starting their conference campaign with a win over a ranked opponent would signal their ability to compete at the highest level.

Final Thoughts

This Kansas State-BYU matchup is shaping up to be a must-watch game, filled with contrasting styles and high stakes. Kansas State’s ground-and-pound rushing attack will go head-to-head with BYU’s aerial assault and strong run defense. The unpredictable elements of the high-altitude environment and Provo’s electric atmosphere only add to the intrigue. With both teams striving to remain undefeated, this Big 12 opener has all the ingredients for a memorable showdown.

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