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Air Force Falcons vs Fresno State Bulldogs November 9th 2024
At 9:45 ET, this week 11 college football matchup between the Fresno State Bulldogs and Air Force Falcons is set to kick off at Falcon Stadium in the USAF Academy. FS1 is handling the TV broadcast as Fresno State comes in with a 5-4 record, while Air Force is still looking for their second win of the season. The over/under line is 41.5 points, with Fresno State favored at -10.5 points.
Fresno State vs. Air Force Key Information
- Teams: Bulldogs at Falcons
- Where: Falcon Stadium USAF Academy
- Date: Saturday, November 9th
- Betting Odds FREST -424 | AIRF +325 O/U 41.5
The Bulldogs Can Win If…
Fresno State heads into Week 11 with a 5-4 record and a 95.4% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. They are ranked 81st in our power rankings and have gone 2-2 on the road this season.
The Bulldogs have been favored in five of their nine games, going 4-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +3.7 points per game, and they are 4-3-1 against the spread.
Fresno State’s over/under record is 2-6, with their games averaging 51.9 points. This week’s line is set at 41.5 points, the lowest they’ve seen this season.
Fresno State’s offense ranks 106th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 11, averaging 27.8 points per game, which places them 54th nationally. Their third-down conversion rate is 40.8%, and their rushing game has struggled, producing just 106.6 yards per game on the ground.
Mikey Keene leads the Bulldogs’ passing attack with 2,198 yards, and Fresno State ranks 14th in passing completions per game. Keene has completed 68.8% of his passes, throwing 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Mac Dalena leads the team with 730 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
Fresno State’s defense allowed 21 points in their recent 21-20 loss to Hawaii, giving up 346 total yards. They held Hawaii to 102 rushing yards on 36 attempts but allowed 244 passing yards and three touchdowns, while also forcing one interception.
On average, Fresno State’s defense has given up 24.1 points per game this season. They rank 53rd in the nation, allowing 128.2 rushing yards per game, and 220.7 passing yards. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 56.1% of their passes, which ranks 26th nationally.
- The Fresno State Bulldogs have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. Across these games, they have put together an ATS mark of 1-1-1 as well as an over-under record of 0-3.
- Through their last ten regular season contests, Fresno State has a record of 6-4. Their record vs the spread sits at 5-4-1 in these matchups, while posting a 3-7 over-under mark.
The Falcons Can Win If…
Air Force enters Week 11 with a 1-7 record, facing Fresno State at home. They are ranked 122nd in our CFB power rankings and have a 0.0% chance of reaching bowl eligibility. The Falcons are 0-3 at home this season.
Air Force has been favored in two games this season but has gone 0-2 in those matchups. Their average scoring margin is -12.8 points per game, and they hold a 1-6 record against the spread.
The over/under line for this week is set at 41.5 points. Air Force’s games have averaged 40.2 points, with their over/under record at 3-4 and an average line of 42 points.
Air Force’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 13.8 points per game, which ranks 105th in the nation. They are 131st in our offensive power rankings heading into week 11. Their passing game has been particularly weak, with only 99.5 yards per game, and they rank 133rd in passer rating. Their third-down conversion rate is 33.6%.
John Busha leads the team with 415 passing yards but has completed only 36.7% of his passes, with one touchdown and five interceptions. Air Force is second in rushing attempts, averaging 186.2 yards per game. Dylan Carson leads the ground game with 153 yards, averaging 3 yards per carry. Cade Harris has 221 receiving yards.
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Air Force’s defense has allowed 26.5 points per game this season, ranking 53rd nationally. In their recent game against Army, they gave up 20 points, allowing 257 total yards, including 209 rushing yards on 42 attempts, while holding Army to just 48 passing yards on nine attempts.
Opponents have averaged 198.9 rushing yards per game against Air Force, while the secondary has allowed 170.4 passing yards per game, ranking 22nd in the nation. Quarterbacks have completed 62.5% of their passes and have a passer rating of 95.3 against Air Force’s defense.
- Across Air Force’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 0-3. In these contests, the team went just 0-3 against the spread, while going 1-2 on the over-under.
- Over their last ten regular season games, the Air Force Falcons have gone 5-5 straight up. Their record vs the spread sits at 3-7 in these matchups, while posting a 6-4 over-under mark.
The Lean
Fresno State is favored by -10.5 points in their week 11 matchup against Air Force. We expect the Bulldogs to win comfortably, with a projected final score of 27-12 in favor of Fresno State.
Given the over/under line of 41.5 points, our projection of 39 total points suggests that taking the under is the best play. Fresno State is likely to cover the spread as the road favorite.
