Florida Gators vs Tulane Green Wave Picks and Predictions December 20th 2024

Florida Gators vs Tulane Green Wave December 20th 2024

Raymond James Stadium in Tampa will be the neutral site for the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl matchup between the Tulane Green Wave and Florida Gators. ESPN will be handling the television coverage, and kickoff is set for 3:30 ET on Friday, December 20th. The Gators are the -11.5 point favorites, with the over/under line currently at 50.5 points. Tulane comes in with a 9-4 record, while Florida is 7-5 on the season.

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Tulane vs. Florida Key Information

• Teams: Green Wave at Gators
• Where: Raymond James Stadium Tampa
• Date: Friday, December 20th
• Betting Odds FL -455 | TULANE +350 O/U 50.5

The Green Wave Can Win If…

Tulane enters Week 14 with a 9-4 record, going 5-2 on the road and 3-2 at home. They’ve been favored in 10 of their 13 games, posting an 8-2 record as the favorite.

Their average scoring margin this season is +17.5 points, and they’ve gone 8-4 against the spread. On the road, Tulane is 5-2 ATS and 7-3 ATS as the favorite.

Tulane’s over/under record is 8-4, with their games averaging 56.8 points. Their average over/under line is 53.5, and this week’s line is set at 50.5 points.

Tulane’s offense has been strong this season, ranking 8th in points per game with 37.2. They are also 2nd in third-down conversion percentage, converting 52.2% of their attempts. Their rushing game is a key part of their success, with 40.5 attempts per game, ranking 6th nationally, and averaging 206.8 rushing yards per game.

Makhi Hughes leads the rushing attack with 1,372 yards and 15 touchdowns. Quarterback Darian Mensah has thrown for 2,723 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, with a passer rating of 113. Tulane is ranked 31st in our offensive power rankings heading into their matchup with Florida.

Despite ranking 24th nationally in points allowed at 19.7 per game, Tulane’s defense struggled in their recent 35-14 loss to Army, giving up 35 points. They allowed 338 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns, while Army attempted just two passes, completing both for 17 yards.

Opponents have averaged 144.1 rushing yards per game against Tulane, while the defense has allowed 167.9 passing yards per game, ranking 12th in the nation. Quarterbacks have a passer rating of 70.1 and a 59% completion rate against Tulane this season.

• Across Tulane’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 1-2 and an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Across Tulane’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 8-2. In these contests, the team went just 7-3 against the spread, while going 6-4 on the over-under.

The Gators Can Win If…

Florida enters their Week 1 matchup against Tulane with a 7-5 record, going 4-2 at home and 2-2 on the road. They’ve been favored in just two games this season, winning both. As underdogs, they are 3-4, with a 3-2 record at home.

The Gators have a +3.6 average scoring margin and a 7-3 record against the spread. At home, they are 4-2 ATS, and they’ve covered both times they’ve been favored. As underdogs, they are 4-3 ATS.

Florida’s over/under record is 6-4, with their games averaging 52.2 points. This week’s line is 50.5, and they’ve had seven games with higher lines and six games with more points than this week’s total.

Florida’s offense is ranked 48th in our power rankings heading into week 1, and they are 50th in scoring, averaging 27.9 points per game. DJ Lagway, their quarterback, has thrown for 1,610 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 98.

Florida ranks 93rd in passing attempts and 77th in passing yards, averaging 219.1 yards per game. They have converted 37.9% of their third-down attempts. Jadan Baugh leads the rushing attack with 603 yards and 7 touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Elijhah Badger has 789 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns.

Florida’s defense played a key role in their recent 31-11 victory over Florida State, allowing just 11 points. They held the Seminoles to 99 rushing yards on 44 attempts and 140 passing yards, giving up only one rushing touchdown.

On the season, Florida ranks 44th nationally, allowing 24.3 points per game. Opponents have averaged 156.7 rushing yards per game and 236 passing yards against the Gators, ranking Florida’s pass defense 121st in the country.

• Florida has put together a record of 3-0 over their past three games. The team has also been excellent vs the spread, going 3-0. Their over-under record in these games was 1-2.
• The Florida Gators have gone 5-5 over their last ten regular season games. In these contests, the team went just 4-6 against the spread, while going 5-5 on the over-under.

The Lean

Florida is favored by -11.5 points in their week one matchup against Tulane, and we have a projected final score of 34-17 in favor of the Gators. With this projection, we see Florida covering the spread as the home favorite.

The over/under line is set at 50.5 points, and with our projected total at 51 points, we recommend taking the over in this matchup.

Weekly College Football Picks from Expert Handicappers

The Gasparilla Bowl is set to deliver a thrilling matchup between two teams with starkly different trajectories this season. The Florida Gators (7-5) fought back from a rough start to clinch bowl eligibility, while the Tulane Green Wave (9-4) had an impressive early run but faltered late, culminating in quarterback challenges. The game, taking place Friday in Tampa, promises excitement as both teams look to end their seasons on a high note.

Florida: Resilience Defines the Season

The Gators’ season began on shaky ground, losing two of their first three games, including defeats to ranked opponents Miami and Texas A&M. Speculation loomed over Coach Billy Napier’s future as Florida faced a pivotal stretch. However, competitive performances against top-tier teams like Tennessee and Georgia, coupled with a late-season resurgence, silenced critics.

Freshman quarterback DJ Lagway has been the driving force behind Florida’s turnaround. After taking over as starter mid-season, Lagway guided the Gators to impressive wins over ranked opponents LSU, Ole Miss, and Florida State. His statistics—1,610 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and seven interceptions—showcase his potential, though he has been hampered by a hamstring injury sustained in the Georgia game.

Despite Lagway’s injury, Coach Napier expressed confidence in his team’s readiness:
“When they put the ball down and kick the thing off, we’ll be ready to go,” Napier said.

Florida enters the Gasparilla Bowl with momentum and minimal opt-outs, aiming to cap off their season on a strong note.

Tulane: Battling Adversity

Tulane’s season was a tale of two halves. After an eight-game winning streak and climbing as high as No. 17 in the CFP rankings, the Green Wave stumbled with back-to-back losses to Memphis and Army, missing out on the American Athletic Conference title. Adding to their challenges, starting quarterback Darian Mensah and backup Kai Horton entered the transfer portal, leaving Tulane with a depleted depth chart.

Ty Thompson, a former Oregon five-star recruit, now steps into the spotlight for his first college start. Primarily used in wildcat packages this season, Thompson has demonstrated his rushing prowess, averaging 6.1 yards per carry with six touchdowns. His limited passing experience (74 yards, two touchdowns) adds a layer of uncertainty.

Despite these challenges, Thompson is optimistic about his opportunity:
“I’ve prayed for this since I was 17 and showed up in college.”

Coach Jon Sumrall commended Thompson’s perseverance:
“He could have either tanked it or pushed on to get better. He really handled it the right way.”

Thompson will have key offensive weapons in receiver Mario Williams and running back Makhi Hughes, both crucial for Tulane’s success.

Key Matchups

1. DJ Lagway vs. Tulane’s Defense: Lagway’s ability to manage Tulane’s defensive pressure while recovering from injury will be pivotal. His mobility may be limited, which could influence Florida’s offensive strategy.
2. Ty Thompson’s Rushing Ability vs. Florida’s Front Seven: Thompson’s dual-threat capabilities present a unique challenge for Florida. If he can exploit gaps in the defense, Tulane might keep the game competitive.
3. Battle in the Trenches: Florida’s offensive line, which has supported Lagway effectively in recent games, will face a test against Tulane’s defensive front. Conversely, Tulane’s rushing attack, led by Hughes and Thompson, must contend with Florida’s strong run defense.

Coaching Philosophies on Display

• Billy Napier (Florida): Napier has instilled a “next-man-up” culture in his team, emphasizing readiness and adaptability regardless of circumstances. This mentality has been crucial during Florida’s late-season surge.
• Jon Sumrall (Tulane): Sumrall has fostered a spirit of resilience and growth, particularly in players like Thompson, who have faced setbacks yet risen to the occasion.

Game Outlook

Florida enters the Gasparilla Bowl as the favorite, boasting momentum, experience, and a proven quarterback. Tulane, meanwhile, faces an uphill battle with an untested starter and the challenge of rebuilding chemistry after a tumultuous end to the season. However, the unpredictability of college football means Tulane could still surprise, especially if Thompson rises to the occasion and exploits Florida’s defensive gaps.

College Football Betting Guide

Prediction: Florida 31, Tulane 17.
Florida’s momentum and superior depth give them a significant edge, but Tulane’s resilience and Thompson’s dual-threat capabilities could make for an entertaining contest.

Conclusion The Gasparilla Bowl represents an opportunity for both programs to showcase their growth. Florida looks to solidify its resurgence under Coach Napier, while Tulane seeks to prove its depth and adaptability in the face of adversity. With storylines aplenty, this matchup is poised to be a compelling close to the season for both teams.