Florida Gators vs Texas A&m Aggies Picks and Predictions September 14th 2024

ABC will be covering the 3:30 ET kickoff as the Texas A&M Aggies head to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville to take on the Florida Gators in a week three matchup. The over/under line is currently at 46.5 points for this game. The Aggies are the -4.5-point road favorites, and both teams come into this game with a 1-1 record for the season.

Texas A&M vs. Florida Key Information

• Teams: Aggies at Gators
• Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium Gainesville
• Date: Saturday, September 14th
• Betting Odds TXAM -195 | FL +159 O/U 46.5

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The Aggies Can Win If…

Texas A&M evened their season record to 1-1 with a 52-10 victory over McNeese. This game had no betting lines available.

The Aggies dominated from the start, taking a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. By halftime, they had extended their lead to 38-0, and they added another touchdown in the third quarter. The Aggies gave up some points in the fourth quarter, but they still came out on top by a score of 52-10.

After putting up 529 yards of total offense in their 52-10 win over McNeese, Texas A&M’s offense is looking to carry that momentum into their next game. The Aggies had 29 first downs and 333 rushing yards, with five of their seven touchdowns coming on the ground. Conner Weigman, who threw for 125 yards and two touchdowns, led the passing attack. Weigman connected on 78.6% of his passes and finished with a passer rating of 143.45.

On the ground, Le’Veon Moss was the standout performer, rushing for 84 yards on just nine carries and finding the end zone twice. In the passing game, Cyrus Allen led the way with five receptions for 72 yards.

Texas A&M’s defense was dominant in their most recent game, holding McNeese to just 10 points and 279 total yards. The Aggies’ defense picked off two passes and limited McNeese to 99 passing yards on 11 completions. However, they did struggle to stop the run, giving up 180 yards on 38 carries. Overall, Texas A&M allowed just one touchdown in the game.

• Texas A&M has put together a record of 1-2 in their last three games (regular season). Across these games, their ATS record was just 0-3, while posting an over-under record of 1-2.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the Texas A&M Aggies have gone 4-6 straight up. Their record vs the spread sits at 1-8-1 in these matchups, while posting a 5-5 over-under mark.

The Gators Can Win If…

Florida is now 1-1 after a 45-7 win over Samford. There were no betting lines available for this game.

The Gators took control early, leading 14-0 at the half. Samford managed to score in the third quarter, but Florida responded with 17 points in the fourth to secure the win.

Florida’s offense was dominant in their 45-7 win over Samford, racking up 632 total yards and 22 first downs. The Gators’ ground game was effective, producing 166 yards and three touchdowns, while their passing attack was explosive, amassing 466 yards and three scores.

Quarterback DJ Lagway was nearly flawless, completing 72% of his passes for 456 yards and three touchdowns, resulting in a passer rating of 153.75. Montrell Johnson Jr. led the rushing effort with 67 yards and two touchdowns, and Eugene Wilson III was the top receiver, hauling in six passes for 141 yards and a touchdown.

Florida’s defense was dominant in their 45-7 win over Samford, holding them to just 206 total yards. The Gators were particularly strong against the run, allowing only 62 rushing yards on 34 attempts. In the passing game, Florida gave up 144 yards on 22 completions, but they kept Samford out of the end zone.

• The Florida Gators have gone 1-2 over their last three regular season games. Their record vs the spread sits at 0-3 in these matchups, while posting a 1-2 over-under mark.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Florida has a record of 6-4. Across these games, their ATS record was just 3-7, while posting an over-under record of 5-5.

The Lean

We like Texas A&M’s chances on the road in this matchup, as they come in as -4.5 point favorites over the Florida Gators. Our projected final score is 26-19 in favor of the Aggies, making them a good bet to cover the spread.

With the over/under line set at 46.5 points, our projection of 45 points suggests that taking the under is the best play for this game.

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Florida Faces Quarterback Conundrum Ahead of SEC Clash with Texas A&M

As Florida and Texas A&M prepare to kick off Southeastern Conference (SEC) play on Saturday in Gainesville, the Gators find themselves facing a critical quarterback decision. Both teams come into the matchup at 1-1, with the series history tied at 3-3, setting the stage for a pivotal contest in the early stages of the season.

Recent Matchup and Series History

A Tied All-Time Series

The last meeting between these two programs came in 2022, when Florida secured a 41-24 win over Texas A&M in College Station. The Gators delivered a dominant second-half performance, shutting out the Aggies 21-0 to even the all-time series at 3-3.

This year’s meeting promises another intriguing chapter in a rivalry that dates back to 1962. Both teams are looking to start SEC play strong, with Texas A&M eager to avenge last year’s loss.

Season Recap and Game Preparation

Both Teams Rebound After Early Losses

Both Florida and Texas A&M bounced back from disappointing season-opening losses to ranked opponents. Texas A&M routed McNeese 52-10 behind a powerful ground game, while Florida showcased its aerial attack, defeating Samford 45-7 with a standout performance from freshman quarterback DJ Lagway.

Texas A&M racked up 333 rushing yards on 38 carries, while Florida’s offense leaned on Lagway, who threw for 456 yards and three touchdowns. As both teams head into this crucial SEC matchup, the contrasts in their offensive strengths will be key storylines to watch.

Florida’s Quarterback Dilemma

Lagway vs. Mertz: Who Gets the Nod?

Florida’s quarterback situation remains uncertain heading into Saturday. After starter Graham Mertz suffered a concussion in the Gators’ Week 1 loss to Miami, freshman DJ Lagway stepped up in his first collegiate start. Lagway set a Florida freshman record for single-game passing yards, breaking Chris Leak’s 2003 mark by throwing for 456 yards and three touchdowns in the win over Samford.

Head coach Billy Napier now faces a tough decision: stick with the experienced Mertz if he’s cleared to play, or ride the momentum with the red-hot Lagway.

“That’s where the gamesmanship is,” Napier said. “Ultimately, (DJ’s) one of our better players. We’re going to give him an opportunity to impact the game and contribute to the team.”

Napier’s remarks indicate that both quarterbacks may play a role, but who starts and takes the majority of snaps is still up in the air. This uncertainty adds intrigue to the Gators’ offensive strategy as they prepare for their SEC opener.

Texas A&M’s Preparation for Florida’s QB Situation

Preparing for Two QBs

First-year Texas A&M head coach Mike Elko is preparing his defense for both Mertz and Lagway. Elko, who served as Florida’s defensive coordinator under Jimbo Fisher from 2018 to 2021, is familiar with the Gators’ playbook. He understands the challenge of preparing for two quarterbacks with different skill sets.

“You kind of come up with a plan on how you think you want to handle both kids,” Elko said. “You have to prepare like both of them are going to play the whole game.”

Elko emphasized that the Aggies’ defensive approach won’t drastically change based on who starts, as creating separate game plans could lead to confusion among his players.

Defensive Focus

With the Aggies preparing for both quarterbacks, their defense will need to stay disciplined. If Lagway starts, Texas A&M’s defense will have to account for his strong arm and ability to stretch the field. If Mertz returns, they’ll face a more experienced signal-caller who brings a different level of game management.

After making your picks, it's key to understand how odds impact your winnings. Check out our NCAAF Odds page for more details.

Key Players to Watch

Florida: DJ Lagway and Graham Mertz

If Lagway gets the start, all eyes will be on the true freshman as he looks to continue his breakout performance. However, if Mertz is cleared to play, his experience could bring stability to Florida’s offense. Whoever takes the field will be key to the Gators’ chances of starting SEC play with a win.

Texas A&M: Ground Game and Defense

Texas A&M will lean on its potent running attack, which piled up 333 yards in their win over McNeese. Running backs Amari Daniels and Le’Veon Moss will play crucial roles, especially if the Aggies can control the clock and keep Florida’s offense off the field. Defensively, Texas A&M will rely on Elko’s game plan to disrupt Florida’s quarterback—whoever it may be—and limit explosive plays.

Looking Ahead: A Key SEC Showdown

With both teams sitting at 1-1, this game will be a key early test in the SEC. Florida’s quarterback decision, combined with Texas A&M’s defensive adjustments, makes for an intriguing matchup. As the all-time series stands at 3-3, the winner will take the lead in this budding rivalry, which includes a notable clash in the 1977 Sun Bowl.

Florida will be eager to start their SEC schedule strong at home, while Texas A&M seeks to build momentum after their bounce-back victory. With high stakes and questions surrounding Florida’s quarterback situation, all eyes will be on Gainesville this Saturday.