Florida Gators vs Mississippi Rebels Picks and Predictions November 23rd 2024

Florida Gators vs Ole Miss Rebels November 23rd 2024

ABC will be covering this week 13 college football matchup between the Ole Miss Rebels and Florida Gators, set to kick off at 12:00 ET from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville. Ole Miss is 8-2 on the season, while Florida comes in with a 5-5 record. The Rebels are the heavy -9.5-point favorites on the road, with the over/under line currently at 55.5 points.

Ole Miss vs. Florida Key Information

At 8-2 this season, Ole Miss heads into Week 13 against Florida with a 100% chance of bowl eligibility. They are ranked 6th in our power rankings and hold a 0.6% chance of winning the Southeastern. However, they have a 62.5% chance of making the playoff, which is the 12th best odds in the country.

Ole Miss has been favored in seven of their ten games, going 6-1 as the favorite. They are 3-0 on the road and 4-1 at home, with an average scoring margin of +27.8 points per game. Against the spread, the Rebels are 6-2 overall, 3-0 on the road, and 3-2 at home.

Their over/under record is 1-7, with their games averaging 53.6 points. This week’s line is set at 55.5 points, while their average over/under line this season has been 58.2 points.

Heading into week 13, Ole Miss boasts one of the top passing offenses in college football, ranking second nationally with 365.7 yards per game. They are also fourth in scoring, averaging 40.7 points per game, and are sixth in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Jaxson Dart has thrown for 3,409 yards, completing 70.8% of his passes, and has a passer rating of 127. He has 22 touchdowns and just four interceptions this season.

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Leading the receiving corps is Tre Harris, who has 987 yards on 59 catches and six touchdowns. On the ground, Ole Miss averages 174.5 rushing yards per game. Henry Parrish Jr. leads the rushing attack with 678 yards, 10 touchdowns, and an average of 5 yards per carry.

Ole Miss’s defense has been a standout unit this season, ranking 5th nationally by allowing just 12.9 points per game. They’ve also excelled against the run, giving up only 82.5 rushing yards per game, which is the 5th-lowest in the country.

In their recent game against Georgia, Ole Miss allowed just 10 points but gave up 456 total yards, including 347 passing yards. Georgia ran the ball 28 times for 109 yards.

Florida enters Week 13 with a 5-5 record, aiming for bowl eligibility against Ole Miss. They are 3-2 at home and 1-2 on the road this season. Despite being ranked 26th in our power rankings, they have a 0.0% chance of winning the Southeastern but an 85.8% chance of becoming bowl-eligible.

The Gators have been favored in only one game this season, and their average scoring margin is +1.6 points per game. They are 5-3 against the spread, with a 3-2 record at home and 2-1 on the road.

Florida’s over/under record is 6-2, with their games averaging 54.4 points. The average over/under line is 52.7 points, and this week’s line is set at 55.5 points.

Florida’s offense has been average heading into week 13, ranking 50th in our offensive power rankings and scoring 28 points per game. DJ Lagway has thrown for 1,297 yards, with Florida ranking 63rd in passing yards per game. Lagway has seven touchdowns and five interceptions, with a passer rating of 98.

Florida is 93rd in third-down conversion percentage, converting just 36.8% of their attempts. Jadan Baugh leads the rushing attack with 476 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Elijhah Badger has 691 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Florida’s defense played a significant role in their 27-16 win over LSU, allowing just 16 points. They gave up 392 total yards, including 262 passing yards and 130 rushing yards on 44 attempts. The defense also forced LSU to throw the ball 48 times, though they didn’t record any interceptions.

On the season, Florida’s defense is ranked 61st nationally, allowing 26.4 points per game. Opponents have averaged 164 rushing yards per game and 236.9 passing yards, with quarterbacks completing 60.3% of their throws and posting a passer rating of 87.2 against the Gators.

Ole Miss is favored by -9.5 points in their week 13 matchup against Florida. We have a projected final score of 31-25 in favor of Ole Miss, but we like Florida to cover the spread as the underdog.

With the over/under line set at 55.5 points, our projection of 56 points aligns closely with the line. If you’re looking for a totals play, consider taking the over.

No. 9 Ole Miss Heads to Florida with Playoff Mindset

With the College Football Playoff field beginning to take shape, No. 9 Ole Miss is keeping its eyes on the prize. As one of four two-loss Southeastern Conference teams still vying for playoff contention, the Rebels are acutely aware of what’s at stake as they prepare to visit Florida on Saturday in Gainesville.

The Rebels (8-2, 4-2 SEC) are riding a three-game winning streak, including a decisive 28-10 victory over Georgia on Nov. 9. With their postseason hopes hanging in the balance, head coach Lane Kiffin emphasized the importance of maintaining focus on each remaining game, treating every contest as a playoff.

“If we lose, we’re not in playoff contention,” said wide receiver Jordan Watkins, who leads the team with seven touchdown catches. “So knowing that, we have to win every game from here on out.”

Kiffin on the SEC Championship Quandary

Kiffin also weighed in on the unique risk-reward dynamic posed by the SEC title game. While the game offers the champion a coveted first-round bye in the upcoming 12-team playoff system, Kiffin noted the dangers of potentially being eliminated from playoff contention with a loss.

“The way that system is set up … you could go to [the SEC championship game] and get knocked out,” Kiffin said. “If you don’t go, you’re in.”

For now, the Rebels are focused on securing a win at Florida, a team brimming with confidence after upsetting then-No. 21 LSU 27-16 at home last week.

Rebels’ Offensive Weapons Ready to Shine

Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart has been the cornerstone of the Rebels’ offense, throwing for 3,409 yards, 22 touchdowns, and just four interceptions this season. His dynamic playmaking ability will be bolstered by the expected return of top receiver Tre Harris, who has missed the past three games with a back injury.

“Really excited to get the best receiver in the country back,” Kiffin said of Harris, who has tallied 59 receptions, 987 yards, and six touchdowns this season.

The Rebels will also lean on Watkins and their balanced offense, which has helped them secure wins against strong SEC opponents.

Florida Looks to Build Momentum

Florida (5-5, 3-4 SEC) enters the matchup with a renewed sense of optimism after its upset of LSU. Freshman quarterback DJ Lagway returned from a hamstring injury to throw for 226 yards and a touchdown, and he’s confident in the Gators’ trajectory under head coach Billy Napier.

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“We’re going to change this place and make it what it used to be,” Lagway said, referencing Florida’s storied past under coaches like Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer.

Florida’s defense made a statement against LSU, recording seven sacks, including two by linebacker Shemar James. Napier acknowledged the challenge posed by Ole Miss but expressed confidence in his team’s preparation.

“Ole Miss has got playmakers on offense, obviously a veteran quarterback, and then defensively, they’ve got some disruptive players up front,” Napier said. “This is a good football team, a ranked opponent, and we’re excited about the challenge.”

What’s at Stake

A victory for Ole Miss would keep the Rebels firmly in the playoff conversation while improving their position in the SEC standings. Florida, on the other hand, is fighting for bowl eligibility, needing one win in its final two games to secure a postseason berth.

Historical Context

The Rebels haven’t played in Gainesville since 2015, when they were routed 38-10 by then-No. 3 Florida. Their last overall meeting came in 2020, with Florida prevailing 51-35 in Oxford, Miss.