Florida Gators vs Louisiana State Tigers Picks and Predictions November 16th 2024

Florida Gators vs LSU Tigers November 16th 2024

LSU is favored at -5 as they head into this week 12 matchup against the Florida Gators. The game is set for 3:30 ET from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville and will be broadcast on ABC. The money line odds are -199 for LSU and +164 for Florida, with the over/under line at 55 points. LSU has a 6-3 record, while Florida is 4-5 on the season.

LSU vs. Florida Key Information

LSU enters Week 12 with a 6-3 record, ranked 16th in our power rankings. They have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible but only a 3.6% chance of winning the Southeastern. The Tigers hold the 23rd best odds of making the CFB playoff at 7.2%.

LSU is 4-1 as the favorite this season, with a +5.7 average scoring margin. However, they are just 2-5 against the spread, going 1-3 ATS on the road and 1-2 at home.

The over/under line for this week is set at 55 points. LSU’s games have averaged 55.4 points, with an average line of 58.9 points. Their over/under record stands at 2-5 this season.

LSU’s offense is ranked 12th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 12. They are also 39th in scoring, with an average of 30.6 points per game. The Tigers have been heavily reliant on their passing game, ranking 7th in the nation with 322.8 yards per game. They are 9th in both passing attempts and completions per game.

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Garrett Nussmeier leads the team with 2,870 passing yards, completing 62.8% of his throws. He has thrown 21 touchdowns but also has 11 interceptions, resulting in a passer rating of 92. LSU ranks 11th in third-down conversions, with a 48.4% success rate. On the ground, they are averaging 115.2 rushing yards per game. Caden Durham leads the rushing attack with 460 yards and six touchdowns. Kyren Lacy is the top receiver, with 697 yards and seven touchdowns on 46 catches.

LSU’s defense struggled in their recent game against Alabama, allowing 42 points in a 42-13 loss. They gave up 421 total yards, including 312 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns, though they held Alabama to 109 passing yards.

On the season, LSU’s defense ranks 51st nationally, giving up 24.9 points per game. Opponents are averaging 155.3 rushing yards per game and 216.2 passing yards, completing 62.4% of their throws against the Tigers.

With a 4-5 record, Florida is looking to become bowl-eligible, but our projections give them only a 44.2% chance. They are ranked 28th in our CFB power rankings and have a 2-2 record at home this season.

The Gators have been favored in just one game this season, going 1-0 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +0.6 points per game, and they are 4-3 against the spread.

Florida’s over/under record is 6-1, with their games averaging 55.7 points. The average over/under line this season has been 52.2 points, and this week’s line is set at 55 points.

Heading into week 12, Florida’s offense is averaging 28.1 points per game, placing them 50th in the nation. They are ranked 51st in our offensive power rankings. On third downs, they have struggled, converting just 37% of their attempts.

DJ Lagway leads the passing game with 1,071 yards, and Florida is 65th in passing yards per game. Lagway has six touchdowns and five interceptions, with a passer rating of 100. Jadan Baugh leads the rushing attack with 411 yards and six touchdowns.

Florida’s defense has struggled this season, allowing an average of 27.6 points per game. In their recent game against Texas, they gave up 49 points, including five passing touchdowns and 563 total yards, with 352 yards coming through the air.

Opponents are averaging 234.1 passing yards per game against Florida, completing 60.6% of their passes. On the ground, the Gators are giving up 167.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 116th nationally.

Florida is the +5 point underdog at home vs. LSU this week, but we have them not only winning straight-up but also covering the spread. Our predicted final score is 28-24 in favor of the Gators.

With the over/under line sitting at 55 points, we see the total points falling just short of this, making the under the best play for this matchup.

LSU and Florida Face Off Amid Mounting Pressure on Coaches

The stakes are high for both No. 22 LSU and Florida as they prepare to clash in an SEC showdown this Saturday in Gainesville. Both programs are under the microscope as their seasons have not lived up to the lofty expectations set for them, and the heat is building on their respective head coaches, Billy Napier and Brian Kelly.

Coaches Under the Spotlight

Florida’s Billy Napier and LSU’s Brian Kelly are each in their third year with their teams, but neither coach’s tenure has been smooth sailing. The Gators, currently 4-5 overall and 2-4 in the SEC, have been plagued by inconsistency, raising questions about Napier’s job security. However, Florida’s athletic director Scott Stricklin has publicly backed Napier, indicating he will stay on — at least for now. Yet, the Gators followed that vote of confidence by getting thrashed 49-17 by Texas, who at one point led 42-0.

Meanwhile, Kelly’s situation in Baton Rouge is slightly more secure, given his hefty $100 million contract with LSU, which still has seven years remaining. But after back-to-back losses, including a 42-13 drubbing by Alabama at home, the criticism has been growing louder. LSU had also blown a 17-7 halftime lead against Texas A&M just a week earlier, only to be outscored 31-6 in the second half.

The loser of Saturday’s game is likely to face even harsher scrutiny, especially given the sky-high expectations for both programs.

“I feel pretty confident we know what we are doing,” Kelly said. “Am I happy about what happened? No. Are our players? No. But I am not in a position to worry about what people are saying about the overall health of the program.”

LSU: A Championship Program in Progress?

Despite the recent stumbles, Kelly remains optimistic about the future of LSU. His first two seasons saw the Tigers finish with 10 wins each, capped by bowl game victories. However, to reach that same mark this season, LSU (6-3, 3-2 SEC) would need to win its last three regular-season games and secure a bowl victory.

“We have one of the top recruiting classes in the country,” Kelly noted. “A championship program is what we are going to have here. There are going to be some stumbles along the way, but we will get back up and keep building our program.”

Florida’s Quarterback Woes

Florida’s season took a sharp downturn when starting quarterback Graham Mertz suffered a season-ending ACL tear. Backup freshman DJ Lagway then strained his hamstring two games later in a loss to Georgia, forcing third-string quarterback Aidan Warner into action. Warner struggled against Texas, completing just 12 of 25 passes for 132 yards in the blowout loss.

Despite the tough circumstances, Napier remains confident in his team’s trajectory.

“I think we can play better around him,” Napier said of Warner. “We’ve been very inconsistent. I see the light at the end of the tunnel. We’re getting closer, but we’re not there yet.”

Florida, sitting on the brink of bowl ineligibility, needs to win two of its final three games to secure a postseason berth. However, with matchups against No. 11 Ole Miss and archrival Florida State looming, the Gators face an uphill battle.

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Key Matchups to Watch

1. LSU’s Offense vs. Florida’s Defense: The Tigers are looking to bounce back after being held to just 13 points by Alabama. The Gators’ defense has been shaky at best, giving up big plays in crucial moments. If LSU can get its offense rolling early, it could spell trouble for Florida.
2. Florida’s Quarterback Situation: All eyes will be on whether DJ Lagway is healthy enough to play. If not, it will be up to Aidan Warner to guide the Gators’ offense, which struggled mightily against Texas. How Florida’s offense performs could determine whether they can keep up with LSU’s firepower.
3. Coaching Strategies Under Pressure: Both Napier and Kelly are coaching under intense scrutiny. How each coach handles the game’s momentum swings and adjusts to in-game challenges could be the difference-maker in what might be a closely contested battle.

What’s at Stake?

For LSU, a win is crucial to keep their hopes of a 10-win season alive and to silence critics questioning the direction of Kelly’s program. Meanwhile, Florida needs a victory not just for bowl eligibility but also to prove that Napier is indeed steering the program in the right direction.

Will LSU’s recruiting prowess and past success under Kelly finally translate into a late-season surge, or can Florida find a way to pull off a much-needed upset at home? Saturday’s game in Gainesville promises to be a turning point for both programs — one way or another.