California Golden Bears vs San Diego State Aztecs Picks and Predictions September 14th 2024

ESPN will be covering the week three non-conference matchup between the San Diego State Aztecs and the California Golden Bears as they kick off at 10:30 ET from California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley. The Aztecs are 1-1 on the season, while the Golden Bears are 2-0. California is heavily favored at -19 points, with the over/under line set at 49.5 points.

San Diego State vs. California Key Information

• Teams: Aztecs at Golden Bears
• Where: California Memorial Stadium Berkeley
• Date: Saturday, September 14th
• Betting Odds CAH -1159 | SDST +697 O/U 49.5

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The Aztecs Can Win If…

San Diego State is looking to bounce back after being shut out by Oregon State in their most recent game. The Aztecs, who were +5.5 point underdogs, not only lost straight-up but also failed to cover the spread. The over/under for the game was 53.5 points, but the combined score of 21 points fell short of this line.

Oregon State took an early 7-0 lead, and the Aztecs were unable to score before halftime. The game remained 7-0 until the Beavers added two more touchdowns in the fourth quarter to hand San Diego State their first loss of the season, moving them to 1-1.

In their 21-0 loss to Oregon State, San Diego State’s offense was limited to 179 total yards and just seven first downs. The Aztecs struggled to establish the run, gaining only 72 rushing yards on 25 attempts. In the passing game, they managed 107 yards, with quarterback Danny O’Neil completing 11 of 24 passes. O’Neil ended the game with a passer rating of 58.85 and was unable to connect for a touchdown.

Marquez Cooper led the Aztecs’ ground attack with 53 yards on 13 carries. Louis Brown IV was the top receiver, with two catches for 45 yards.

In their 21-0 loss to Oregon State, San Diego State’s defense struggled to contain the run, giving up 237 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Overall, they allowed 420 total yards and 23 first downs. Against the pass, the Aztecs were more effective, holding Oregon State to 183 yards on 17 completions.

• Over their last three games, the San Diego State Aztecs have gone 2-1 straight up. This includes going 1-2 vs. the spread and posting an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the San Diego State Aztecs have gone 3-7 straight up. The team’s record vs the spread was just 5-5, in addition to an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Golden Bears Can Win If…

California is now 2-0 after pulling off a road upset over Auburn. The Golden Bears, who were +12 point underdogs, not only won the game but also covered the spread. This victory was particularly impressive, as it came against a ranked Auburn team. The over/under line was set at 52.5 points, but the final score totaled just 35 points, resulting in the under hitting.

After a 7-7 tie in the first quarter, California fell behind 14-7 by halftime. However, they shut out Auburn in the second half while adding 14 points of their own to come out on top.

California’s offense, led by quarterback Fernando Mendoza, totaled 334 yards in their 21-14 win over Auburn. Mendoza completed 69.4% of his passes for 233 yards and two touchdowns, earning a passer rating of 105.44. Jonathan Brady was his top target, hauling in four receptions for 63 yards.

The Golden Bears’ offense moved the chains 18 times, with 101 yards on the ground and 233 yards through the air. Jaivian Thomas was the leading rusher, picking up 53 yards on eight carries and scoring one of the team’s two touchdowns.

California’s defense was effective in their most recent game, holding Auburn to 286 total yards and 21 points. The Golden Bears’ secondary was particularly strong, picking off four passes and allowing just 165 passing yards on 14 completions. However, they did give up one passing touchdown. On the ground, California allowed 121 yards and one rushing touchdown.

• The California Golden Bears have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 2-1 in those same games.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the California Golden Bears have gone 5-5 straight up. The team’s record vs the spread was just 5-5, in addition to an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Lean

Our projected score for this week three matchup between San Diego State and California is 28-26 in favor of the Golden Bears. With California being the -19 point favorite, we like San Diego State to cover the spread as the road underdog.

For the over/under, our projection of 54 total points suggests that taking the over on the line of 49.5 points is the best play.

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Cal and San Diego State Renew Rivalry in Berkeley

California and San Diego State are set to renew their non-conference rivalry for the first time in eight years as they face off this Saturday night in Berkeley, Calif. With injury concerns looming over both teams, Cal (2-0) looks to achieve their first 3-0 start since 2019, while San Diego State (1-1) aims to recover from a tough loss to Oregon State.

Cal’s Injury Concerns and Offensive Strategy

Jaydn Ott’s Health in Question

One of Cal’s biggest concerns heading into the matchup is the health of star running back Jaydn Ott, who has been limited due to a right ankle injury sustained during the season opener against UC Davis. Despite scoring two touchdowns, Ott has managed only 60 yards on 24 carries over two games. His status remains uncertain for Saturday’s game as the Golden Bears may choose to rest him ahead of their ACC opener against Florida State next week.

In Ott’s absence last week, Jaivian Thomas stepped up, leading the rushing attack with 53 yards in Cal’s 21-14 upset over Auburn. However, most of Cal’s offense came from the passing game, where quarterback Fernando Mendoza threw for 233 yards and two touchdowns.

Mendoza Named Full-Time Starter

Initially, head coach Justin Wilcox planned to split quarterback duties between Mendoza and transfer Chandler Rogers, but after Mendoza’s impressive performance, Wilcox confirmed Mendoza as the full-time starter:

“Fernando will be our starting quarterback,” Wilcox said. “He has done a really good job. Last week, especially in the first half, was incredibly efficient.”

With Mendoza now locked in as the starter, Cal’s offense looks to continue its upward trend against San Diego State.

San Diego State’s Quarterback Situation

Danny O’Neil’s Knee Injury

San Diego State also faces its own quarterback dilemma. Freshman QB Danny O’Neil suffered a left knee injury during the first quarter of last week’s 21-0 loss to Oregon State. While O’Neil returned to the game with a knee brace, he struggled to find his rhythm, completing just 11 of 24 passes for 107 yards.

First-year head coach Sean Lewis expressed confidence that O’Neil will play against Cal but stressed the importance of the young quarterback protecting himself better:

“He is a relentless competitor,” Lewis said. “He’s willing to sacrifice his own body, but we have to be smart about that.”

San Diego State will need O’Neil to manage the offense more effectively if they hope to bounce back from their shutout loss.

Key Players to Watch

Cal: Fernando Mendoza and Jaivian Thomas

With Jaydn Ott’s health in question, Jaivian Thomas may once again be asked to shoulder the bulk of Cal’s rushing duties. Meanwhile, Fernando Mendoza is coming off a strong performance as the clear starter and will look to maintain his efficiency in the passing game.

After making your picks, it's key to understand how odds impact your winnings. Check out our NCAAF Odds page for more details.

San Diego State: Marquez Cooper and Danny O’Neil

For the Aztecs, running back Marquez Cooper has been the offensive focal point, rushing for 276 yards on 40 carries with two touchdowns. Cooper will be crucial as San Diego State aims to balance their attack, especially with O’Neil still recovering from his knee injury.

Historical Rivalry

A Pivotal Matchup

Saturday’s game marks the ninth meeting between Cal and San Diego State. The all-time series is currently tied 4-4, with the Aztecs claiming victory in their most recent matchup in 2016, winning 45-40. This game presents a pivotal opportunity for both teams to gain momentum as they navigate early-season challenges.