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Minnesota comes into this week’s three non-conference matchup with Nevada with a 1-1 record. The game is set for 3:30 ET on Saturday, September 14th, at Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis and will be broadcast on BTN. The over/under line is 43.5 points, and the Gophers are the heavy favorite at -16.5 points. Nevada is 1-2 on the season.
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Nevada vs. Minnesota Key Information
- Teams: Wolf Pack at Golden Gophers
- Where: Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
- Date: Saturday, September 14th
- Betting Odds MINNST -832 | NEVADA +551 O/U 43.5
The Wolf Pack Can Win If…
Nevada is looking to bounce back after a 20-17 loss to Georgia Southern, bringing their record to 1-2 for the season. The Wolf Pack were +0 point underdogs but failed to cover the spread. The over/under line was set at 56.5 points, but the game ended with just 37 combined points, resulting in an under.
Nevada started strong, taking a 14-7 lead in the first quarter. However, Georgia Southern outscored them 10-0 in the second quarter, and the Wolf Pack managed only a field goal in the third quarter, leading to their defeat.
Nevada’s offense will be looking to build on their 502 total yards in their next game, as they finished with 271 passing yards and 231 rushing yards. The Wolf Pack moved the chains 26 times and ended up with 17 points in their most recent game. Brendon Lewis completed 65.7% of his passes for 271 yards, with his top target being Cortez Braham Jr., who caught nine passes for 110 yards.
On the ground, Brendon Lewis was the team’s leading rusher, picking up 97 yards on 18 carries and scoring one rushing touchdown. The team also found the end zone through the air, with Lewis connecting with a receiver for a touchdown.
After allowing 243 passing yards and two touchdowns through the air in their most recent game, Nevada’s defense will be looking to tighten up. Overall, the Wolf Pack gave up 285 total yards and 20 first downs. However, they were solid against the run, holding Georgia Southern to just 42 yards on the ground.
- Through their last three regular season contests, Nevada has a record of 1-2. This also includes going 2-1 ATS, and posting an over-under record of 1-2.
- The Nevada Wolf Pack have gone 3-7 over their last ten regular season games. Against the spread, Nevada went 5-5 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 6-4.
Avery Johnson did it all in No. 14 Kansas State's 31-7 win against No. 20 Arizona 🔥@KStateFB pic.twitter.com/vMXrIR75iC
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) September 14, 2024
The Golden Gophers Can Win If…
Minnesota improved to 1-1 on the season with a dominant 48-0 win over Rhode Island. The Gophers took control early, leading 17-0 at halftime and never looking back. This game did not have any betting lines available.
Minnesota’s offense was firing on all cylinders in their 48-0 win, racking up 422 total yards and 27 first downs. The Gophers’ ground game was limited to 116 yards, but they made up for it with 306 yards through the air, including three passing touchdowns.
Quarterback Max Brosmer completed 24 of 30 passes (80%) for 271 yards and two touchdowns, ending with a passer rating of 126.53. On the ground, Darius Taylor led the team with 64 yards on 14 carries, while Elijah Spencer was the top receiver with four catches for 55 yards.
Minnesota’s defense was dominant in their most recent game, holding Rhode Island to just 135 total yards. The Gophers picked off three passes and didn’t allow a single point, winning 48-0. Rhode Island’s ground game was virtually non-existent, managing just 18 rushing yards on 13 attempts. Overall, the Gophers allowed only 117 passing yards on 13 completions.
- Spanning across their last three games, Minnesota have gone 2-1. In these games, they have a 2-0-1 record vs the spread and an over-under mark of 2-1.
- Minnesota has put together a record of 6-4 in their last ten games (regular season). Their record against the spread in this stretch is 4-5-1 to go along with an over-under mark of 5-5.
The Lean
Our projections have Minnesota beating Nevada 25-14 in their week three matchup. While we expect Minnesota to win, Nevada is the better bet to cover the spread as +16.5 point underdogs.
With the over/under line set at 43.5 points, we see the total points line as the best way to go, with our projections suggesting a combined score of 39 points.
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Minnesota Looks to Spread Ball Around Against Nevada
The Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-1) are eager to build on their dominant performance against Rhode Island as they host the Nevada Wolf Pack (1-2) on Saturday in Minneapolis. Head coach P.J. Fleck has emphasized the importance of spreading the ball around offensively as Minnesota looks to maintain momentum and push past the .500 mark this season.
Minnesota’s Offensive Surge
Brosmer Leading the Air Attack
Following a disappointing season-opening loss to North Carolina, Minnesota bounced back with a commanding 34-0 shutout over Rhode Island. Quarterback Max Brosmer played a key role in the victory, completing 24 of 30 passes for 271 yards and two touchdowns. He was efficient and spread the ball well, connecting with 12 different receivers throughout the game.
Backup QB Drake Lindsey also contributed to the offensive effort, ensuring the ball was distributed to a variety of targets. Minnesota’s balanced approach saw contributions from both the passing and running game, with Darius Taylor leading the ground attack, accumulating 64 rushing yards.
Coach P.J. Fleck has been clear that versatility in their passing game is crucial for the team’s continued success.
“That’s going to have to be the key for us to have success,” Fleck said. “The ability to spread it around… For this to work the best it can work, everybody has to be reliable.”
Ground Game Balance
While the passing game thrived, the Gophers also found moderate success on the ground. However, Fleck stressed the importance of involving as many players as possible, ensuring the offense remains unpredictable and versatile. The ability to keep opposing defenses guessing will be vital as Minnesota prepares to take on tougher competition, including Nevada this weekend.
Defensive Playmakers Stepping Up
Minnesota’s defense showcased their potential in the win against Rhode Island, contributing heavily to the shutout. The defense recorded three interceptions, highlighted by a 25-yard pick-six from Jack Henderson in the fourth quarter. The unit’s aggressive but disciplined style of play has been a hallmark of Fleck’s philosophy.
“We have a swarming defense that plays with legal football violence in everything that we do,” Fleck said. “That’s been the message from Day 1, and our players have responded really well in two games.”
After holding Rhode Island scoreless, Minnesota’s defense will be tasked with containing Nevada’s mobile quarterback Brendon Lewis, who poses a dual-threat challenge.
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Nevada’s Challenge: Reducing Penalties
Costly Mistakes in Loss to Georgia Southern
Nevada is coming off a frustrating 20-17 loss to Georgia Southern, where penalties played a significant role in their defeat. The Wolf Pack committed 14 penalties for 134 yards, including two crucial personal fouls on back-to-back plays right before halftime. These penalties set up a Georgia Southern touchdown, ultimately shifting the momentum of the game.
Despite the loss, Nevada’s quarterback Brendon Lewis had a productive outing, accumulating 368 total yards (271 passing, 97 rushing) and accounting for two touchdowns. Lewis’s ability to make plays with both his arm and legs will be pivotal as Nevada looks to challenge Minnesota’s stout defense.
Head coach Jeff Choate acknowledged that discipline needs to improve for the Wolf Pack to have a chance against tougher opponents.
“We’ve been walking that line. We crossed the line, and that was the first time it really hurt us,” Choate said. “I think that lesson can now be learned in a really tangible way, and we can tighten the screws on them a little bit more.”
Lewis Key to Nevada’s Success
Nevada’s offense will depend heavily on Brendon Lewis, who can extend plays with his feet while also being effective through the air. If the Wolf Pack can limit penalties and capitalize on their opportunities, they may be able to keep pace with Minnesota. However, facing a Minnesota defense that thrives on creating turnovers could present a significant challenge.
Key Matchup: Minnesota vs. Nevada
This will be the first-ever meeting between Minnesota and Nevada. Historically, Nevada has struggled against Big Ten opponents, holding a 2-5 record, including a 27-0 loss to Iowa in 2022. If Nevada is to stand a chance against Minnesota, they’ll need to stay disciplined, avoid costly penalties, and rely on Lewis’ playmaking abilities.
On the other side, Minnesota will look to keep their offensive rhythm going, spreading the ball to multiple targets while also utilizing their run game to wear down Nevada’s defense. Defensively, the Gophers will need to contain the dual-threat capability of Brendon Lewis, who could pose problems if given too much space.
