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As we look at the odds for this week 11 matchup between the Oklahoma State Cowboys and TCU Horned Frogs, it is TCU that comes in as the favorite at -11.5 points. The game is set to kick off at 7:00 ET from Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, with FS1 handling the television broadcast. The over/under line is currently at 66.5 points. TCU has a 5-4 record this season, while Oklahoma State is 3-6 overall.
Oklahoma State vs. TCU Key Information
- Teams: Cowboys at Horned Frogs
- Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium Fort Worth
- Date: Saturday, November 9th
- Betting Odds TCU -428 | OKST +327 O/U 66.5
The Cowboys Can Win If…
Oklahoma State enters Week 11 with a 3-6 record and just a 5.7% chance of becoming bowl-eligible, according to projections. They are ranked 57th in our power rankings and have gone 1-3 on the road and 0-3 at home this season.
The Cowboys have been favored in two of their nine games, going 1-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin this season is -1.8 points per game, and they are 2-5 against the spread, with a 2-2 ATS record on the road and 0-3 at home.
This week’s over/under line is set at 66.5 points, the highest they’ve faced this season. Oklahoma State’s over/under record is 4-3, with their games averaging 60.7 points and an average line of 59.4 points.
Oklahoma State’s offense is centered around their passing game, ranking 10th in passing attempts per game. They are 18th in passing yards, averaging 279.2 yards per game, and 15th in completions. Overall, they are 47th in scoring, with 29.4 points per game, and we have them 44th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 11.
Alan Bowman has thrown for 2,294 yards this season, completing 60.1% of his passes, with 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He has a passer rating of 85. Leading the receiving corps is De’Zhaun Stribling, who has 648 yards and four touchdowns on 36 catches. Oklahoma State is averaging 107.1 rushing yards per game.
Oklahoma State’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 31.2 points per game. In their recent game against Arizona State, they gave up 42 points, surrendering 530 total yards, including 304 passing yards and three passing touchdowns.
Opponents have averaged 248.8 rushing yards per game against Oklahoma State, ranking them 181st nationally. The defense has faced 41.8 rushing attempts per game and a passer rating of 92.4, with quarterbacks completing 57.5% of their throws.
- The Oklahoma State Cowboys have gone 0-3 over their last three regular season games. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 1-2 to go along with an over-under mark of 3-0.
- Across Oklahoma State’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 4-6. Against the spread, Oklahoma State went 4-6 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 6-4.
The Horned Frogs Can Win If…
TCU enters Week 11 with a 5-4 record, ranked 49th in our power rankings. They have a 93.6% chance of becoming bowl-eligible but only a 0.3% shot at winning the Big 12. At home, the Horned Frogs are 1-2, while they’ve gone 3-2 on the road this season.
Against the spread, TCU is 2-6, with an average scoring margin of +3.4 points per game. They are 0-5 ATS as the favorite but have gone 2-1 ATS as the underdog.
The over/under line for this week is 66.5 points, the highest they’ve faced this season. TCU’s over/under record is 6-2, with their games averaging 61.9 points and an average line of 58.9 points.
TCU’s offense is centered around their passing game, ranking 3rd in the nation with 333.7 yards per game. They are 7th in passing attempts, averaging 39.1 per game, and 3rd in completions, with 26.4 per game. Overall, they are 31st in scoring, with 32.7 points per game, and we have them 34th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 11.
Josh Hoover has thrown for 2,947 yards, completing 67.1% of his passes, with 21 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. His passer rating is 104. Jack Bech leads the receiving corps with 923 yards and 9 touchdowns on 51 catches. TCU’s run game has struggled, ranking 110th with 107 rushing yards per game.
TCU’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 29.2 points per game, including 37 points in their recent loss to Baylor. They gave up 499 total yards in that game, with 257 rushing yards on 44 attempts and 242 passing yards, though they didn’t allow a passing touchdown.
Opponents have averaged 178.6 rushing yards per game against TCU, ranking them 128th nationally. The defense has faced 39.8 rushing attempts per game, while quarterbacks have completed 57.9% of their passes, averaging 181.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 30th in the country.
- TCU has put together a record of 1-2 in their last three games (regular season). This includes going 0-3 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 2-1.
- Over their last ten regular season games, the TCU Horned Frogs have gone 6-4 straight up. The team’s record vs the spread was just 4-6, in addition to an over-under mark of 3-6-1.
Ready for Winning NCAA Picks? Check out our NCAA football expert picks for today.
The Lean
Our projections have TCU winning this matchup 42-26, and with the current spread at -11.5 for TCU, we would recommend taking the Horned Frogs to cover as the home favorite.
For the over/under, with the line set at 66.5 points, we have these teams combining for 68 points, making the over our preferred play.
