Indiana Hoosiers vs Purdue Boilermakers Picks and Predictions November 30th 2024

FS1 is covering this week 14 Purdue Boilermakers vs. Indiana Hoosiers matchup, set to kick off at 7:00 ET from Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, IN. The Hoosiers are the heavy favorite at -28.5 points, with the over/under line currently at 56.5 points. Indiana comes in with a 10-1 record, while Purdue is just 1-10 on the season.

Purdue vs. Indiana Key Information

• Teams: Boilermakers at Hoosiers
• Where: Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) Bloomington
• Date: Saturday, November 30th
• Betting Odds IND -7928 | PUR +2018 O/U 56.5

The Boilermakers Can Win If…

Purdue heads into Week 14 against Indiana with a 1-10 record, ranked 113th in our CFB power rankings. They have no chance of becoming bowl-eligible this season.

The Boilermakers have been underdogs in all 11 games, with an average scoring margin of -20.4 points per game. Their ATS record stands at 1-7.

This week’s over/under line is set at 56.5 points. Purdue’s games have averaged 54.7 points, and their average over/under line has been 49.7 points.

Heading into week 14, Purdue’s offense is averaging just 17.2 points per game, ranking 99th in the nation. They are also 104th in our offensive power rankings. Their third-down conversion rate is a low 33.8%, and they are 101st in rushing, averaging 125.3 yards per game.

Hudson Card leads the passing game with 1,606 yards, nine touchdowns, and six interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 81. Purdue ranks 98th in passing yards per game. Devin Mockobee has rushed for 666 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and has scored four touchdowns.

Purdue’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 37.5 points per game. They’ve given up an average of 198.2 rushing yards per game and 242.7 passing yards, ranking 125th nationally. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 64.2% of their passes against Purdue, with a passer rating of 106.7.

In their recent game against Michigan State, Purdue’s defense allowed 24 points, giving up 296 total yards. Michigan State rushed 36 times for 137 yards and completed 15 of 31 passes for 159 yards, scoring two passing touchdowns.

• Across Purdue’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 0-3. In these contests, the team went just 1-2 against the spread, while going 1-2 on the over-under.
• Across Purdue’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 0-10. This includes going 2-8 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Hoosiers Can Win If…

Indiana enters Week 14 with a 10-1 record, sitting at 11th in our power rankings. They are 6-0 at home this season and have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible. The Hoosiers have a 0.3% chance of winning the Big Ten but a 97.9% chance of making the CFB playoff, according to our projections.

Indiana has been favored in nine of their 11 games, going 9-0 as the favorite. They have a +25.3 average scoring margin and a 7-3 record against the spread. As the favorite, they are 7-2 ATS this season.

The over/under line for this week is 56.5 points, higher than their average line of 49.6 points. Indiana’s over/under record is 7-3, with their games averaging 57.3 points per contest.

Heading into week 14, Indiana’s offense ranks 2nd in points per game, averaging 41.3, and they are 3rd in our offensive power rankings. Kurtis Rourke has thrown for 2,478 yards with a passer rating of 121. Indiana is 10th in completion percentage, completing 68.6% of their passes, and they convert 48.4% of their third downs, ranking 11th nationally.

Rourke has thrown 21 touchdowns with just four interceptions. Justice Ellison leads the rushing attack with 748 yards, nine touchdowns, and an average of 5 yards per carry. Elijah Sarratt has 725 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 41 receptions.

Despite allowing 38 points in their recent 38-15 loss to Ohio State, Indiana’s defense has been strong this season, ranking 9th nationally by allowing just 16 points per game. Against Ohio State, they gave up 316 total yards, including 115 rushing yards on 29 attempts and 201 passing yards, while also forcing an interception.

Indiana’s defense ranks 4th in the country against the run, allowing just 76.3 rushing yards per game. They’ve faced an average of 29.2 rushing attempts per game, which is the 12th fewest nationally. Through the air, they’ve allowed 184.9 passing yards per game, ranking 35th, with opposing quarterbacks completing 63.2% of their passes and posting a passer rating of 73.3.

• The Indiana Hoosiers have posted a 3-0 record in their previous three games. Against the spread, the team is 2-1 in these same games while going 1-2 on the over/under.
• Across Indiana’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 8-2. Their record vs the spread sits at 6-4 in these matchups, while posting a 5-5 over-under mark.

The Lean

Our projections have Indiana winning this matchup by a score of 48-15. They are the heavy favorite at -28.5 points, and we expect them to cover the spread. If you are looking for a good over/under bet, go with the over, as the total points line is set at 56.5, and we have these teams combining for 63 points.

Playoff Hopes Still Alive for Indiana

Last week’s 38-15 loss to No. 2 Ohio State could have been a devastating blow to Indiana’s College Football Playoff aspirations. Instead, thanks to chaos in the top 12, the Hoosiers (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten) find themselves clinging to the No. 10 spot in the CFP rankings.

Indiana now has a chance to secure a playoff berth with a win over in-state rival Purdue (1-10, 0-8) in their regular-season finale on Saturday night. Adding intrigue, a Michigan upset of Ohio State could catapult the Hoosiers into the Big Ten title game, potentially setting up a showdown with No. 1 Oregon.

“We’re sitting in a good spot, but we’ve got to take care of business,” said Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti.

Cignetti’s debut season has been nothing short of remarkable. Projected to finish 17th in the Big Ten during preseason polls, Indiana now finds itself on the brink of the program’s first-ever playoff appearance.

Offensive Struggles to Address

The Hoosiers enter the game as four-touchdown favorites, but there’s no room for complacency. Recent offensive struggles have raised concerns, with Indiana posting just 151 total yards against Ohio State last week and 246 in their prior game against Michigan.

“We’ve got to get back in sync offensively and get our rhythm back where we’re playing with a lot of confidence,” Cignetti said.

Key to that will be quarterback Tayven Jackson and Indiana’s receiving corps finding ways to stretch the field against a Purdue defense that has allowed 411 points this season.

Purdue’s Spoiler Opportunity

For Purdue, this game is about pride and the opportunity to spoil Indiana’s historic season. The Boilermakers have endured a brutal year, managing just one win—a season-opening shutout against FCS opponent Indiana State.

Despite their struggles, head coach Ryan Walters insists his focus remains on Saturday’s rivalry matchup.

“I’m looking forward to Saturday. That is what I am focused on right now,” Walters said.

Purdue quarterback Hudson Card has shown flashes this season, throwing for 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns. Linebacker Kydran Jenkins, with 6.5 sacks this season and 23 in his career, will be key to disrupting Indiana’s offense.

The Boilermakers hold a 77-42-6 advantage in the all-time series for the Old Oaken Bucket, including a 35-31 victory last year behind Card’s late-game heroics.

What’s at Stake

A win would give Indiana a historic 11-1 record and likely secure its place in the 12-team College Football Playoff. But the Hoosiers know they can’t overlook their rival, especially with the emotional weight of a long-standing rivalry game on the line.

“This is what it’s all about,” Cignetti said. “We need to stay focused and finish strong.”

For Purdue, a win would offer a silver lining in an otherwise disappointing season and extend their streak of Old Oaken Bucket victories to four.

Stay in the Game with NCAA Picks! Discover today’s NCAA football picks from the experts.

Prediction

Indiana’s historic season has been defined by resilience and the ability to overcome adversity. With so much at stake, expect the Hoosiers to find their rhythm offensively and secure the victory, keeping their playoff dreams alive.

Final Score Prediction: Indiana 34, Purdue 14