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South Alabama Jaguars vs Texas State Bobcats November 29th 2024
ESPN+ will be covering this week 14 Texas State Bobcats vs. South Alabama Jaguars matchup, set to kick off at 3:30 ET from Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile. Both teams are 6-5 on the season, and the over/under line is at 61.5 points. The Bobcats are the slight -1 point road favorites. The money line odds are close, with Texas State at -113 and South Alabama at -108.
Texas State vs. South Alabama Key Information
- Teams: Bobcats at Jaguars
- Where: Hancock Whitney Stadium Mobile
- Date: Friday, November 29th
- Betting Odds TXST -113 | SALA -108 O/U 61.5
The Bobcats Can Win If…
Texas State enters Week 14 with a 6-5 record, aiming for a winning season against South Alabama. They’ve gone 3-3 at home and 2-2 on the road. The Bobcats are ranked 63rd in our CFB power rankings, and they are already bowl-eligible. However, they have no chance of winning the Sun Belt this year.
Texas State has been favored in 10 of their 11 games this season, posting a 5-5 record as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +13.4 points per game, and they are 5-5 against the spread.
This week’s over/under line is set at 61.5 points. Texas State’s games have averaged 59.4 points, with an average line of 58.2 points. Their over/under record for the season is 5-4-1.
Texas State’s offense has been impressive this season, ranking 15th in points per game with 36.4. They are also 20th in rushing, averaging 203.6 yards per game. Quarterback Jordan McCloud has thrown for 2,667 yards, leading the team to 23rd in completions. He has 28 touchdown passes and a passer rating of 109.
Texas State is 15th in passer rating nationally. McCloud has completed 69% of his passes, and the team ranks 8th in completion percentage. Ismail Mahdi leads the rushing attack with 844 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry. Jaden Williams has 644 receiving yards and six touchdowns.
Texas State’s defense had a rough outing in their recent game, giving up 52 points in a 52-44 loss to Georgia State. They allowed 507 total yards, including 222 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. Through the air, they surrendered 285 yards and three passing touchdowns.
Despite the tough game, Texas State’s defense ranks 40th nationally, allowing 23 points per game. They’ve given up 151.2 rushing yards per game and 197 passing yards, with opponents completing 55.4% of their passes.
- Texas State will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 2-1 over their past three games. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 2-1 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 3-0 in those same games.
- Texas State has put together a record of 5-5 in their last ten games (regular season). This includes going 5-5 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 5-4-1.
The Jaguars Can Win If…
South Alabama enters Week 14 with a 6-5 record, facing Texas State at home. They are 2-2 at home and 3-3 on the road this season. The Jaguars are guaranteed bowl eligibility, but they have only a 4.7% chance of winning the Sun Belt, according to projections.
South Alabama has been favored in seven of their 11 games, going 3-4 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +10.9 points, and they are 4-6 against the spread this season.
The over/under line for this week is 61.5 points. South Alabama’s games have averaged an over/under line of 58 points, with their over/under record at 3-7 and an average margin of -3.9 points against the line.
South Alabama’s offense is averaging 34.5 points per game heading into week 14, placing them 21st in the nation. They also rank 21st in rushing, with 200.8 yards per game. Gio Lopez, their quarterback, has a passer rating of 106 and has thrown for 2,367 yards, completing 65.6% of his passes. He has 17 touchdowns and just three interceptions.
Fluff Bothwell leads the rushing attack with 753 yards and 11 touchdowns, averaging 7 yards per carry. Jamaal Pritchett has 1,041 receiving yards and eight touchdowns on 81 catches. South Alabama is ranked 51st in our offensive power rankings.
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South Alabama’s defense has allowed an average of 23.5 points per game this season, ranking 44th nationally. They’ve given up 253.7 passing yards per game, which is 140th in the country, with opposing quarterbacks completing 62.9% of their passes and posting a passer rating of 84.1. On the ground, the Jaguars have allowed 136.5 rushing yards per game.
In their recent game against Southern Miss, South Alabama’s defense gave up just 14 points. They allowed 306 total yards, including 169 rushing yards on 43 attempts and 137 passing yards. The defense also forced an interception in the game.
- Over their last three games, the South Alabama Jaguars have gone 2-1 straight up. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 2-1 over-under mark.
- South Alabama has put together a record of 6-4 in their last ten games (regular season). Their record against the spread in this stretch is 5-5 to go along with an over-under mark of 6-4.
The Lean
Our projections suggest a 30-26 win for Texas State over South Alabama in their week 14 matchup. Texas State comes in as the slight -1 point favorite on the road. Given this, we would recommend taking Texas State to cover the spread.
With the over/under line set at 61.5 points, we see more value in taking the under, as our combined score projection is at 56 points.
