James Madison Dukes vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Picks and Predictions December 18th 2024

James Madison Dukes vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers December 18th 2024

ESPN will be covering the action as the James Madison Dukes and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers face off at 5:30 ET on Wednesday, December 18th, at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton. The Dukes are the -7.5 point favorites in this matchup, with the over/under line set at 53.5 points. Both teams come in with 8 wins this season, and the money line odds are -253 for James Madison and +204 for Western Kentucky.

Western Kentucky vs. James Madison Key Information

Western Kentucky enters Week 1 against James Madison with an 8-5 record. They’ve gone 3-1 at home and 3-4 on the road this season. The Hilltoppers have been favored in four of their 13 games, posting a 3-1 record as favorites.

Their ATS record stands at 6-5, with a 3-1 mark at home and 3-4 on the road. As favorites, they are 2-2 against the spread, while they’ve gone 4-3 ATS as underdogs.

Western Kentucky’s over/under record is 6-5, with their games averaging 50 points. The average over/under line has been 55.9 points, and this week’s line is set at 53.5 points.

Western Kentucky has relied on their passing game this season, ranking 17th nationally with 261.8 yards per game. They are 24th in passing attempts and 16th in completions, with a 66% completion rate. Heading into week 11, the Hilltoppers are averaging 25.5 points per game and are ranked 80th in our offensive power rankings.

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Quarterback Caden Veltkamp has thrown for 2,806 yards, completing 66.6% of his passes, with 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He has a passer rating of 100. Kisean Johnson leads the receiving corps with 66 catches for 855 yards and seven touchdowns. On the ground, Western Kentucky is averaging 118.2 rushing yards per game.

Western Kentucky’s defense is coming off a tough game, allowing 52 points in a 52-12 loss to Jacksonville State. They gave up 562 total yards, including 386 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns, while also allowing 176 passing yards and two touchdowns.

On the season, Western Kentucky ranks 57th nationally, giving up 24.5 points per game. They’ve allowed 224.2 rushing yards per game, ranking 173rd, and 175.5 passing yards per game, which ranks 20th in the country.

James Madison enters their Week 1 game against Western Kentucky with an 8-4 record. They’ve been perfect at home, going 4-0, while their road record stands at 3-3. The Dukes have been favored in nine of their 12 games this season, posting a 6-3 record as the favorite.

Against the spread, James Madison is 6-4, with a 3-1 mark at home and 3-3 on the road. As the favorite, they are 5-4 ATS, and they’ve covered in their only game as the underdog.

The Dukes’ over/under record is 3-7, with their games averaging 54.6 points. This week’s line is set at 53.5 points, slightly above their average line of 53.3 points.

James Madison’s offense is averaging 33.8 points per game, placing them 21st in the nation. They are ranked 90th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 1. Their rushing attack is their strength, with 195 rushing yards per game on 38.8 attempts.

George Pettaway leads the rushing game with 876 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry and scoring five touchdowns. Quarterback Alonza Barnett III has thrown for 2,596 yards, 26 touchdowns, and four interceptions, with a passer rating of 102.

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James Madison’s defense has been solid this season, ranking 21st nationally by allowing just 20.8 points per game. They’ve given up 198.4 passing yards per game, with opposing quarterbacks completing only 52.7% of their passes, the 8th-lowest rate in the country.

In their recent game, a 35-33 loss to Marshall, the defense allowed 415 total yards, including 222 rushing yards on 42 attempts and 193 passing yards.

Our projections for this week one matchup between Western Kentucky and James Madison have the Hilltoppers winning 28-26. Western Kentucky comes in as the +7.5 point underdogs, but we like their chances to not only cover the spread but to win the game outright.

With the over/under line set at 53.5 points, our model is right in line with this, projecting a total of 54 points. We would lean slightly towards the over in this one.

James Madison Seeks Historic Bowl Win Against Western Kentucky in Boca Raton

The Boca Raton Bowl offers a mix of tradition and new beginnings as Western Kentucky (8-5) squares off against James Madison (8-4) on Wednesday night in Boca Raton, Fla. For James Madison, it’s a shot at their first bowl victory, while Western Kentucky aims to maintain its perfect record in this bowl game.

James Madison: Aiming for History

In just their second full season as an FBS program, the Dukes are eager to make history. After narrowly missing out on bowl eligibility last year due to transitional rules, James Madison now has a chance to solidify its place in the FBS postseason landscape.

First-year head coach Bob Chesney emphasized the importance of this game for the program:

“Really excited about winning this first bowl game in school history,” Chesney said.

The Dukes are looking to rebound after a double-overtime loss to Marshall in their regular-season finale. Injuries at quarterback may complicate their efforts, with starter Alonza Barnett III likely sidelined. Redshirt junior Billy Atkins is set to take the reins.

“Billy has been preparing like he’s the starter,” Chesney said. “He’s an old soul in there.”

The Dukes will likely rely heavily on their rushing attack, led by Jobi Malary, who posted a season-high 106 yards against Marshall. James Madison’s defense will also be pivotal, as the Dukes lead the nation in turnover margin at plus-17.

Western Kentucky: Navigating Challenges

The Hilltoppers are seasoned bowl veterans with a 4-1 record under head coach Tyson Helton. However, this year’s team faces significant roster challenges, with approximately two dozen players entering the transfer portal.

Quarterback Caden Veltkamp, who threw for 23 touchdowns and 2,806 yards this season, has also entered the portal but will suit up for the bowl game. Veltkamp, the Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year, will be a focal point for the Hilltoppers’ offense.

Special teams could play a crucial role, with kicker Lucas Carneiro, the C-USA Special Teams Player of the Year, providing reliability. Carneiro has connected on 17-of-18 field goals and is perfect on extra points (39-for-39).

Defensively, Western Kentucky has struggled against the run, allowing nearly 5 yards per carry. With James Madison’s run-heavy approach, defenders like Hosea Wheeler and Dallas Walker, who recently entered the portal, will be missed.

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What to Watch

• Quarterback Play: James Madison’s Atkins will face a steep challenge against Western Kentucky’s experienced defense, while Veltkamp looks to cap his season before potentially moving to another program.
• Turnovers: James Madison’s league-best turnover margin could tilt the game in their favor, especially if they capitalize on Western Kentucky’s lapses.
• Rushing Attack: The Dukes’ ground game could exploit the Hilltoppers’ porous run defense, making it a critical factor in the outcome.

Key Stats

• James Madison: Leads the nation in turnover margin (+17).
• Western Kentucky: Averages 27.4 points per game but allows nearly 5 yards per carry defensively.
• Boca Raton Bowl History: Western Kentucky is 2-0 in the bowl, with wins in 2016 and 2021.

The First Meeting

This game marks the first-ever matchup between James Madison and Western Kentucky. The Dukes are playing their first game in Florida in 24 years, adding to the significance for players returning to their home state.

“Some guys are returning back home to Florida, so that will be nice for them,” Chesney said.

Prediction

Western Kentucky’s roster uncertainty and struggles against the run could prove costly, particularly against a James Madison team eager to make history. If the Dukes can control the clock with their ground game and capitalize on turnovers, they could secure their first bowl victory.