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UCF Knights vs Utah Utes November 29th 2024
UCF comes into this matchup vs. Utah as the -8.5 point favorite, and the over/under line is currently sitting at 49 points. The game is set to kick off at 8:00 ET from FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando and will be broadcast on FOX. Both teams are 4-7 on the season, and the UCF Knights are -340 on the money line. This is a week 14 matchup in college football.
Utah vs. UCF Key Information
- Teams: Utes at Knights
- Where: FBC Mortgage Stadium Orlando
- Date: Friday, November 29th
- Betting Odds UCF -340 | UTAH +264 O/U 49
The Utes Can Win If…
Utah enters Week 14 with a 4-7 record, and they have a 0.0% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. They rank 52nd in our CFB power rankings. On the road, the Utes are 2-3, while their home record stands at 1-4 this season.
Utah has been favored in seven of their 11 games but has gone 3-4 in those matchups. Their average scoring margin is +1.9 points per game, and they are 3-7 against the spread this year.
The over/under line for this week’s game is 49 points. Utah’s average over/under line is 46 points, and their games have averaged 44.5 points per contest, with their over/under record at 4-6.
Utah’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 23.2 points per game, which ranks 81st nationally. They are 112th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 14. Their third-down conversion rate is only 33.5%, and their passing game has been inconsistent, with a passer rating of 73, placing them 121st in the country. They are averaging 207.5 passing yards per game.
Isaac Wilson leads Utah’s passing attack with 1,510 yards, but he has thrown 11 interceptions compared to 10 touchdowns, resulting in a passer rating of 71. On the ground, Micah Bernard has rushed for 922 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry. Dorian Singer leads the receiving corps with 687 yards on 50 catches.
Utah’s defense, ranked 28th nationally, has allowed an average of 21.3 points per game this season. In their recent matchup against Iowa State, they gave up 31 points, including three rushing touchdowns, while allowing 405 total yards and 25 first downs. Iowa State ran the ball 38 times for 123 yards and threw for 282 yards, completing 21 of 39 passes, though Utah did manage to force one interception.
On the season, Utah’s defense has allowed 130.9 rushing yards per game and 199.7 passing yards. Opposing quarterbacks have completed just 51.8% of their passes, the sixth-lowest percentage in the nation, with a passer rating of 72.4 against Utah, which ranks 23rd nationally.
- Over their last three regular season games, the Utah Utes have gone 0-3 straight up. Against the spread, they have a strong mark of 2-1 along with an over-under record of 3-0.
- The Utah Utes have gone 3-7 over their last ten regular season games. In these contests, the team went just 3-7 against the spread, while going 4-6 on the over-under.
The Knights Can Win If…
UCF enters Week 14 with a 4-7 record, facing Utah at home. They are 2-3 at home and 1-4 on the road this season. The Knights have been favored in six of their 11 games, going 2-4 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +5.1 points per game, and they rank 39th in our CFB power rankings.
Against the spread, UCF is 4-6, with a 2-3 mark at home. As the favorite, they are 2-4 ATS, while they’ve gone 2-1 ATS as the underdog.
The over/under line for this week is 49 points. UCF’s games have averaged 58.7 points, with an average line of 57.1 points. Their over/under record for the season is 7-3.
UCF’s offense is centered around their rushing attack, as they rank 3rd in the nation with 254.9 rushing yards per game, and they are 7th in rushing attempts, averaging 42.9 per game. RJ Harvey has been the focal point, rushing for 1,458 yards and scoring 21 touchdowns, averaging 6 yards per carry. UCF is 34th in scoring, with 31.9 points per game, and they are 35th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 14.
KJ Jefferson leads the passing game with 1,012 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 96. UCF ranks 94th in passing yards per game. Kobe Hudson is the top receiver, with 691 yards and 4 touchdowns on 40 catches.
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UCF’s defense allowed 31 points in their recent 31-21 loss to West Virginia, giving up 205 rushing yards on 51 attempts and three rushing touchdowns. They also allowed 118 passing yards and one passing touchdown.
For the season, UCF ranks 62nd nationally, giving up 26.8 points per game. They’ve allowed 125.5 rushing yards per game (47th) and 228.5 passing yards per game, ranking 104th in the country.
- Across UCF’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 1-2 and an over-under mark of 2-1.
- UCF has put together a record of 5-5 in their last ten games (regular season). In these contests, the team went just 4-6 against the spread, while going 6-4 on the over-under.
The Lean
UCF comes into this week 14 matchup as -8.5 point favorites at home against the Utah Utes. We expect UCF to cover the spread, with a projected final score of 33-21 in their favor.
With the over/under line set at 49 points, our projection of 54 total points suggests that taking the over is the best play.
