Central Florida Knights vs Arizona Wildcats Picks and Predictions November 2nd 2024

UCF Knights vs Arizona Wildcats November 2nd 2024

UCF is favored at -6.5 points as they host the Arizona Wildcats at FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando. Kick-off is set for 3:30 ET, and the game can be seen on FS1. Both teams come into this one with a 3-5 record. The over/under line is currently at 55.5 points for this week 10 matchup. The money line odds stand at +188 for Arizona and -231 for UCF.

Arizona vs. UCF Key Information

Arizona enters Week 10 against UCF with a 3-5 record and a 70th-place spot in our CFB power rankings. They have just an 18.4% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Wildcats are 1-2 on the road and 1-3 at home this season.

Arizona’s ATS record is 1-6, and they’ve gone 0-4 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is -4.6 points per game, and they are 1-2 against the spread on the road.

The over/under line for this week is 55.5 points. Arizona’s games have averaged 51.4 points, and their average over/under line has been 55.6 points, with a -1.5 point margin against the total.

Heading into week 10, Arizona’s offense is averaging 23.4 points per game, ranking 73rd nationally. They are 80th in our offensive power rankings. Their third-down conversion rate is 38.1%, and they are 89th in rushing, averaging 129.9 yards per game.

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Noah Fifita has thrown for 2,068 yards, leading Arizona’s passing game. The Wildcats rank 19th in passing attempts per game and 32nd in passing yards. Fifita has 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, with a passer rating of 80.

Arizona’s defense has struggled this season, allowing 28 points per game, including 31 in their recent 31-26 loss to West Virginia. They gave up 405 total yards, with 207 rushing yards on 37 attempts and 198 passing yards.

Opponents have averaged 156.1 rushing yards per game against Arizona, while quarterbacks have posted a 93.2 passer rating, completing 61.7% of their passes and averaging 214.8 passing yards per game.

• The Arizona Wildcats have gone 0-3 over their last three regular season games. This includes going 0-3 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 2-1.
• Arizona has put together a record of 5-5 in their last ten games (regular season). In these contests, the team went just 3-7 against the spread, while going 5-5 on the over-under.

UCF enters Week 10 with a 3-5 record, facing Arizona at home. They rank 44th in our power rankings, and their chance of becoming bowl-eligible is 41.6%. At home, the Knights are 1-3 this season.

UCF’s average scoring margin is +3.2 points per game, and they are 3-4 against the spread. They’ve been favored in four games, going 1-3 ATS as the favorite and 2-0 ATS as the underdog.

Their over/under record stands at 5-2, with an average line of 57.1 points. This week’s line is set at 55.5 points, while UCF games have averaged 57.5 points per contest.

UCF’s offense is heavily focused on the run, ranking second in the nation with 267.9 rushing yards per game, and they are third in rushing attempts, averaging 44.6 per game. RJ Harvey has rushed for 1,017 yards and scored 13 touchdowns, averaging 6 yards per carry. The Knights are scoring 30.4 points per game, placing them 42nd in the country, and they are ranked 49th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 10.

KJ Jefferson leads the team’s passing game with 1,012 yards and seven touchdowns, but he has also thrown four interceptions. UCF ranks 99th in passing yards per game, and Jefferson has a passer rating of 96. Kobe Hudson leads the receivers with 509 yards and three touchdowns.

UCF’s defense struggled in their recent 37-24 loss to BYU, allowing 37 points and 483 total yards. BYU rushed 48 times for 255 yards and threw for 228 yards, completing 16 passes and scoring two touchdowns through the air.

On the season, UCF ranks 69th nationally, giving up 27.1 points per game. They are 57th in rushing yards allowed (134 per game) and 131st in passing yards allowed, surrendering 247.2 yards per game through the air.

Our projections have UCF winning this matchup 32-28 over Arizona, but with Arizona coming in as +6.5 point underdogs, we like their chances to cover the spread. UCF is the -6.5 point favorite, but Arizona should keep it close enough to cover.

For a point total bet, the over/under line is set at 55.5 points, and with our projection of 60 total points, the over looks like the best play.

Arizona Aims to Break Losing Streak Against Struggling UCF

Arizona will hit the road to face UCF in Orlando this Saturday, with both teams desperately looking for a turnaround in their seasons. Amid coaching and play-calling changes, the Wildcats (3-5, 1-4 Big 12) and the Knights (3-5, 1-4) have each struggled to gain consistency, making this matchup crucial for both programs.

UCF’s Midseason Adjustments in Search of Stability

UCF’s season took a turn after a promising 3-0 start, which included a close 35-34 win over TCU. However, they have since been on a five-game losing streak, including a recent 37-24 loss to BYU, then ranked No. 11. In response to the ongoing struggles, UCF head coach Gus Malzahn made significant adjustments to his coaching staff and play-calling structure.

Malzahn fired defensive coordinator Ted Roof and passed his own offensive play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Tim Harris, with Addison Williams stepping in as the new defensive coordinator. Malzahn expressed optimism that these changes would provide the best path forward for the Knights.

“These decisions were 100 percent my decision,” Malzahn said in his weekly press conference. “I feel it gives the Knights the best chance to snap out of the losing skid.”

Despite these adjustments, UCF’s offensive strengths remain intact. Ranking 19th in the nation in total offense and third in rushing, UCF has averaged 454.8 total yards and 267.9 rushing yards per game. Running back RJ Harvey has been a standout, amassing 1,017 rushing yards on 149 carries, making him a formidable component of the Knights’ attack.

Arizona’s Offensive Shift and Injury Struggles

Arizona has been similarly impacted by a midseason coaching change. Head coach Brent Brennan shifted play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Dino Babers to tight ends coach and passing game coordinator Matt Adkins. While the Wildcats have shown promise offensively, their struggles to close out games have kept them in a four-game losing streak, with their last win dating back to a 23-10 victory over then-No. 10 Utah on Sept. 28.

The Wildcats’ defense, however, faces serious obstacles. They are plagued by injuries, with captains Jacob Manu, Treydan Stukes, and Gunner Maldonado out for the season due to leg injuries. This leaves Arizona’s defense vulnerable, especially against UCF’s highly productive running game.

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On the offensive side, Arizona’s quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan have been a bright spot, forming a productive connection. McMillan, who ranks third nationally with 122.8 receiving yards per game, has become one of the top receiving threats in the country.

Key Matchups and Challenges

The Knights’ defense has struggled significantly on third and fourth downs, allowing opponents to convert 47.5% of third downs and 77.8% on fourth. Arizona’s offense will look to capitalize on these weaknesses, while UCF’s newly reorganized defense will aim to improve its stopping power in crucial moments.
For Arizona, matching UCF’s explosive ground attack will be a significant challenge, particularly considering the state of their defense. Head coach Brent Brennan expressed caution, acknowledging that UCF’s coaching changes may introduce some unpredictability into their style of play.

“I would assume elements of what they’ve executed schematically will still be integral to them,” Brennan remarked. “It’s a challenge since it’s something distinct from what you’re observing on the film.”

The Path to Triumph

For UCF, breaking the losing streak will necessitate an enhancement of their defense on crucial moments and a formidable effort from their rushing offense, led by Harvey. Arizona, conversely, will rely on Fifita and McMillan to take advantage of UCF’s defensive vulnerabilities, aiming to offset their own defensive deficiencies.

With both squads eager for a victory, Saturday’s clash in Orlando is set to be a trial of resilience and flexibility. Both Arizona and UCF will require a standout performance to regain their footing as the season comes to a close, making this game a possible turning point for each team.