Liberty Flames vs Buffalo Bulls Picks and Predictions January 4th 2025

Liberty Flames vs Buffalo Bulls January 4th 2025

ESPN2 is covering the action as the Buffalo Bulls and Liberty Flames face off in the Bahamas Bowl, with kickoff set for 11:00 ET on Saturday, January 4th. The game is being played at Thomas Robinson Stadium in Nassau, and Liberty is technically the home team, even though it is a neutral site. The Flames are -2.5 point favorites, and the over/under line is currently 51.5 points. Both teams are 8-3 on the season.

Buffalo vs. Liberty Key Information

• Teams: Bulls at Flames
• Where: Thomas Robinson Stadium Nassau
• Date: Saturday, January 4th
• Betting Odds LIBRTY -130 | BUF +108 O/U 51.5

The Bulls Can Win If…

Buffalo enters their Week 1 game against Liberty with an 8-4 record. They’ve gone 3-1 at home and 2-3 on the road this season. The Bulls have been favored in just two of their 12 games, winning both, and their average scoring margin stands at +1.1 points per game.

Against the spread, Buffalo is 5-4, covering in three of four home games and going 2-3 on the road. They are 2-0 ATS as the favorite and have covered by an average of +9.9 points per game.

The over/under record for Buffalo games is 6-3, with their contests averaging 57.1 points. This week’s line is set at 51.5 points, with eight of their games having lower lines and seven featuring more points than this week’s total.

Buffalo’s offense has leaned on their run game, ranking 30th in rushing attempts per game and averaging 166.6 yards on the ground. Al-Jay Henderson leads the team with 959 rushing yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and has scored eight touchdowns. The Bulls are 45th in scoring, putting up 29.1 points per game, and are ranked 106th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 1.

Quarterback C.J. Ogbonna has thrown for 2,244 yards with 19 touchdowns and five interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 92. Buffalo ranks 106th in passing yards per game, and their third-down conversion rate is just 34.1%. Victor Snow leads the receivers with 610 yards and six touchdowns on 51 catches.

Buffalo’s defense put together a strong performance in their 43-7 win over Kent State, allowing just 7 points and 209 total yards. They held Kent State to 107 rushing yards on 35 attempts and 102 passing yards, while also forcing an interception.

On the season, Buffalo’s defense is giving up 28 points per game. They’ve allowed 258.6 passing yards per game, ranking 151st nationally, and 146.6 rushing yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 62.9% of their passes against Buffalo.

• The Buffalo Bulls have posted a 3-0 record in their previous three games. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 2-1 over-under mark.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Buffalo has a record of 7-3. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 6-4 and an over-under mark of 7-2-1.

The Flames Can Win If…

Liberty enters Week 1 against Buffalo with an 8-3 record. They’ve gone 3-1 at home and 2-1 on the road this season. The Flames have been favored in seven of their 11 games, posting a 5-2 record as the favorite.

Liberty’s average scoring margin is +7.5 points per game, but they are 3-4 against the spread. At home, they’ve gone 2-2 ATS, and as the favorite, they are 3-4 ATS this season.

The over/under line for this week is 51.5 points. Liberty’s games have averaged 54 points, with an average line of 55.2 points. Their over/under record stands at 2-4-1.

Liberty’s offense has leaned heavily on their run game, ranking 7th in the nation with 238.8 rushing yards per game. They are 14th in rushing attempts, averaging 41.5 per game. Quinton Cooley leads the team with 1,254 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns, and an average of 6 yards per carry. Liberty is also converting 45.5% of their third downs, which ranks 21st in the country.

Overall, Liberty is averaging 28.2 points per game, placing them 48th nationally. We have them ranked 75th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 1. Quarterback Kaidon Salter has thrown for 1,886 yards with 15 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and the team is averaging 161.2 passing yards per game.

Liberty’s defense held Sam Houston to 20 points in their recent game, allowing 337 total yards, including 135 rushing yards on 42 attempts and 202 passing yards. They also forced one interception but gave up two passing touchdowns.

On the season, Liberty ranks 24th nationally, allowing 21.3 points per game. Opponents have averaged 152.9 rushing yards and 201.7 passing yards, completing 59.7% of their throws with a passer rating of 87.3.

• Liberty will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 2-1 over their past three games. Across these games, they have put together an ATS mark of 1-2 as well as an over-under record of 1-2.
• Across Liberty’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 9-1. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 5-5 and an over-under mark of 6-4.

The Lean

Buffalo is the +2.5 point underdog on the road in their week one matchup against Liberty, but we like the Bulls to not only cover the spread but win the game outright. Our projected final score is 28-22 in favor of Buffalo.

With the over/under line set at 51.5 points, we see the under as the best play, with our projections suggesting a combined total of 50 points.

Buffalo Looks to Stay Hot Against Liberty in the Bahamas Bowl

Buffalo and Liberty, two strong programs with contrasting storylines heading into the Bahamas Bowl, are set to clash on Saturday in Nassau. For Buffalo, stability and late-season momentum have been the themes, while Liberty faces significant roster changes and challenges as they prepare for the matchup.

Buffalo’s Stability and Momentum

First-year Buffalo coach Pete Lembo has praised his team’s commitment and unity, as the Bulls enter the game with most of their roster intact. While many programs are managing key opt-outs and transfer portal departures, Buffalo has largely avoided these disruptions, allowing them to maintain consistency and cohesion.

The Bulls (8-4) earned their bowl bid on the back of a strong season, finishing 6-2 in the Mid-American Conference. A highlight was their overtime road win against then-No. 23 Northern Illinois, which had stunned Notre Dame earlier in the year. Buffalo closed the regular season with four straight wins, capped by a dominant 43-7 rout of Kent State.

Senior quarterback C.J. Ogbonna has been a driving force, doubling his passing production in the season’s second half with 14 touchdowns over that stretch. Complementing the offense is a standout defense led by linebackers Shaun Dolac and Red Murdock, who combined for an eye-popping 302 tackles. Dolac, with 159 stops, became Buffalo’s first consensus All-American and will be a key player to watch.

Liberty’s Challenges and Adjustments

Liberty (8-3), under first-year coach Jamey Chadwell, has had to adjust to several key absences heading into the Bahamas Bowl. The most notable is star quarterback Kaidon Salter, who entered the transfer portal after the regular season and is set to join Colorado. Salter was a dual-threat dynamo for the Flames, combining for over 2,400 total yards and 22 touchdowns.

In Salter’s absence, Appalachian State transfer Ryan Burger will make his first start since 2023. Burger will lead an offense that still boasts the nation’s second-ranked rushing attack. Despite the opt-out of leading rusher Quinton Cooley (1,254 yards, 13 touchdowns), Billy Lucas (663 yards, 5.5 yards per carry) remains a potent option in the backfield.

Coach Chadwell has worked to keep his team sharp, emphasizing scrimmages and individual development during the lead-up to the game. However, he acknowledged the widespread roster attrition across college football, calling it “not the best look for college football.”

Who will claim the title? Find out in College Basketball Championship Odds!

Head-to-Head History

Liberty has won all three previous meetings against Buffalo, including a 55-27 blowout last year. However, Buffalo’s defensive improvements and late-season surge could make this contest more competitive.