New Mexico Lobos vs Washington State Cougars Picks and Predictions November 16th 2024

New Mexico Lobos vs Washington State Cougars November 16th 2024

Washington State is the heavy favorite in this week 12 non-conference matchup against the New Mexico Lobos. The game is set for 9:30 ET at University Stadium in Albuquerque and will be broadcast on FS1. The Cougars are 8-1 for the season, while the Lobos are 4-6. The point spread is currently at -13.5 in favor of Washington State, with the over/under line at 72 points.

Washington State vs. New Mexico Key Information

Washington State enters Week 12 with an 8-1 record, but they have no chance of winning the Pac-12. However, they are 100% bowl-eligible and have the 24th best odds to make the CFB playoff at 6.9%. The Cougars are 3-0 at home and 3-1 on the road this season.

Washington State is 5-2 against the spread, with a +12.3 average scoring margin. They are 3-0 ATS at home and 2-2 on the road. As the favorite, they are 3-1 ATS, and they’ve covered in all three home games.

This week’s over/under line is 72 points, higher than any other game this season. Washington State’s over/under record is 2-5, with their games averaging 66.3 points. The average over/under line for their games has been 60.2 points.

Washington State’s offense is averaging 39.3 points per game, ranking 8th in the nation, and they are 25th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 12. Quarterback John Mateer has thrown for 2,332 yards with 22 touchdowns and six interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 108. The team ranks 13th nationally in passer rating and 32nd in passing yards per game, averaging 268.8 yards.

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On the ground, Washington State averages 185.2 rushing yards per game. Leading rusher Wayshawn Parker has 595 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and has scored four touchdowns. Kyle Williams leads the receiving corps with 691 yards and eight touchdowns on 42 catches.

Washington State’s defense has allowed an average of 27 points per game this season, including 28 points in their recent win against Utah State. The Cougars gave up 395 total yards, with 187 rushing yards on 27 attempts and 208 passing yards, while also forcing one interception.

Opponents have averaged 158 rushing yards per game on 29.7 attempts, which ranks 17th fewest in the nation. However, Washington State’s secondary has struggled, allowing 263.3 passing yards per game, ranking 149th, with quarterbacks completing 63.9% of their passes.

New Mexico enters Week 12 with a 4-6 record, holding a 1-2 mark at home and a 3-3 record on the road. They have a 4.9% chance of becoming bowl-eligible, according to projections. The Lobos are ranked 112th in our power rankings as they prepare to face Washington State.

Against the spread, New Mexico is 5-4, with a 4-2 record on the road and 1-2 at home. They’ve been favored in four games, going 3-1 ATS as the favorite, and their average scoring margin this season is -4.9 points per game.

The over/under line for this week is set at 72 points. New Mexico’s games have averaged 71.7 points, and their over/under record is 6-3. The average line for their games this season has been 61.7 points.

New Mexico’s offense has been driven by their run game, ranking 4th in the nation with 238.9 rushing yards per game. Eli Sanders leads the team with 834 rushing yards, averaging 7 yards per carry, and has scored 8 touchdowns. The Lobos are 28th in rushing attempts per game and are averaging 33.4 points per game, placing them 35th in our offensive power rankings.

Quarterback Devon Dampier has thrown for 2,418 yards, and New Mexico is 21st in passing attempts per game. However, Dampier has 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, with a passer rating of 77. The Lobos are 33rd in passing yards per game. Luke Wysong has 700 receiving yards and one touchdown this season.

New Mexico’s defense has struggled this season, allowing an average of 38.3 points per game. They’ve given up 228.8 rushing yards per game and 249.1 passing yards, with opposing quarterbacks posting a 109.8 passer rating and completing 62.8% of their throws.

In their recent game against San Diego State, New Mexico’s defense allowed just 16 points, giving up 341 total yards. San Diego State ran the ball 46 times for 146 yards, while New Mexico’s secondary allowed 195 passing yards and one touchdown.

Washington State is favored by -13.5 points in their week 12 matchup against New Mexico. We expect the Cougars to win comfortably, with a projected final score of 45-26 in their favor.

For a point total, with the over/under line set at 72 points, our projection of 71 points suggests taking the under as the best play. Additionally, Washington State is likely to cover the spread as the road favorite.

No. 18 Washington State Eyes Statement Win at New Mexico

Washington State finds itself in a prime position heading into the final stretch of the season. After a dominant 49-28 victory over Utah State and some favorable losses among higher-ranked teams, the Cougars climbed from No. 21 to No. 18 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. But the mission isn’t over yet. They aim to bolster their resume further when they face the New Mexico Lobos in Albuquerque this Saturday night.

Cougars Rolling with Balanced Attack

Last week, Washington State (8-1) showcased a more balanced offensive game plan, shifting from their usual pass-heavy approach to a run-first strategy. The result? A season-high 303 rushing yards that took the pressure off star quarterback John Mateer, who played efficiently, completing 18 of 24 passes for 179 yards and four touchdowns.

Wide receiver Kyle Williams was quick to credit the offensive line for their dominant performance:

“I feel like they played their (butts) off today. We can’t do anything without the O-line. That’s our forefront and that’s who gets everything started.”

Coach Jake Dickert echoed that sentiment, emphasizing how the run game opened up the offense:

“Now we’re second-and-3, now we’re second-and-2, now we’re second-and-4. Just having those abilities to attack in different ways opens up everything that we wanna do.”

John Mateer Leading the Charge

Mateer continues to be a dual-threat weapon for the Cougars. So far this season, he’s completing 62.4% of his passes for 2,332 yards, with 22 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He’s also leading the team in rushing with 630 yards and 11 touchdowns. Last week, he received significant help from freshman running back Wayshawn Parker, who erupted for 149 yards on just 11 carries, including a 75-yard touchdown run to open the second half.

With New Mexico’s struggling defense, which allows 38 points per game and has only recorded 10 sacks all season, Mateer and the Cougars’ offense could be in for another big night.

Lobos Fighting for Bowl Eligibility

Don’t let New Mexico’s 4-6 record fool you. Under first-year coach Bronco Mendenhall, the Lobos have shown significant improvement, going 4-2 in their last six games. Last week’s 21-16 win at San Diego State kept their slim bowl hopes alive, and now they have a chance to pull off a statement win against a ranked opponent.

Mendenhall is embracing the challenge:

“It’s a big opportunity but it’s also the next opportunity. This is the University of New Mexico fighting for postseason eligibility against a ranked opponent — at home — and it’s game 11. How could you downplay that?”

A Look at New Mexico’s Offense

While much of the focus has been on Washington State’s explosive offense, New Mexico’s attack shouldn’t be overlooked. Quarterback Devon Dampier has quietly put up numbers comparable to Mateer, throwing for 2,418 yards and 11 touchdowns, while also rushing for 872 yards and 13 scores. However, Dampier has been more prone to mistakes, throwing 12 interceptions this season.

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Supporting Dampier in the backfield is Iowa State transfer Eli Sanders, who has rushed for 834 yards and eight touchdowns. The Lobos’ receiving duo of Luke Wysong and Ryan Davis has combined for 101 catches and 1,334 yards, contributing to an offense that averages 33.4 points per game.

Key Matchups to Watch

1. Washington State’s Rushing Attack vs. New Mexico’s Run Defense: The Cougars’ newfound emphasis on the ground game could spell trouble for a Lobos defense that has struggled all season to stop the run.
2. John Mateer vs. Devon Dampier: Both quarterbacks are dual threats, but Mateer has been more efficient and less turnover-prone. Dampier will need to limit his mistakes if New Mexico hopes to pull off the upset.
3. Washington State’s Defensive Front vs. New Mexico’s Offensive Line: The Cougars’ defense, which recorded seven sacks last week, will look to pressure Dampier and force him into hurried decisions.

Prediction: Can the Cougars Keep Rolling?

On paper, this looks like a game Washington State should dominate. The Cougars have momentum, a more balanced offense, and a defense that’s starting to find its groove. However, the Lobos are fighting for bowl eligibility and have proven to be a tough out in recent weeks.

Expect Washington State to come out strong, but don’t be surprised if New Mexico keeps it close for a while. Ultimately, the Cougars’ offensive firepower and depth should be too much for the Lobos to handle.