Miami Hurricanes vs Iowa State Cyclones Picks and Predictions December 28th 2024

Miami Hurricanes vs Iowa State Cyclones December 28th 2024

ABC is set to televise the 3:30 ET kickoff of the Pop-Tarts Bowl, as the Iowa State Cyclones and Miami Hurricanes face off at Camping World Stadium in Orlando. The game is being played on a neutral site, and the over/under line is currently at 53.5 points. Both teams come in with 10-3 records. Miami is technically the home team, but it is being played at a neutral site. The Hurricanes are the slight -1-point favorite on the point spread.

Iowa State vs. Miami Key Information

• Teams: Cyclones at Hurricanes
• Where: Camping World Stadium Orlando
• Date: Saturday, December 28th
• Betting Odds MIA -114 | IOWAST -106 O/U 53.5

The Cyclones Can Win If…

Iowa State enters their Week 1 game against Miami with a 10-3 record. They’ve gone 5-1 at home and 4-2 on the road this season. The Cyclones have been favored in 11 of their 13 games, holding an 8-3 record as the favorite.

Their ATS record stands at 7-5, with a +8.7 average scoring margin. Iowa State is 4-2 against the spread at home and 3-3 on the road. As the favorite, they’ve gone 6-5 ATS.

This week’s over/under line is 53.5 points. Iowa State’s average over/under line has been 48.6 points, and their games have averaged 51.8 points, with a 7-5 over/under record.

Heading into week 11, Iowa State’s offense is averaging 30.2 points per game, placing them 39th in the nation. They are ranked 38th in our offensive power rankings. Their passing game is their strength, ranking 20th in passing yards per game with 254.6, and they are 23rd in passing attempts per game.

Rocco Becht leads the team with 3,235 passing yards and 22 touchdowns, though he has thrown nine interceptions. He has a passer rating of 92 and a completion rate of 59.4%. Carson Hansen leads the rushing attack with 670 yards and 11 touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Jayden Higgins is the top receiver with 1,183 yards and nine touchdowns on 87 catches.

Heading into their matchup against Arizona State, Iowa State’s defense ranked 36th nationally, allowing 21.5 points per game. They were 10th in the nation in passing yards allowed, giving up just 161.7 yards per game, and opposing quarterbacks had a passer rating of 69, which ranked 11th. Iowa State’s defense also ranked 10th in completion percentage allowed, at 53.3%.

Against Arizona State, Iowa State gave up 45 points and 467 total yards, including 248 rushing yards on 36 attempts. The secondary allowed 219 passing yards and three touchdowns.

• The Iowa State Cyclones have posted a 2-1 record in their previous three games. Against the spread, they have gone 1-2 and logged an over-under record of 2-1 in these games.
• The Iowa State Cyclones have gone 7-3 over their last ten regular season games. This includes going 5-5 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Hurricanes Can Win If…

Miami enters Week 13 with a 10-2 record, going 5-0 at home and 4-2 on the road. They’ve been favored in 11 of their 12 games, posting a 9-2 record as the favorite.

The Hurricanes have a +20.2 average scoring margin this season, with a 6-5 record against the spread. They are 3-3 ATS on the road and 3-2 at home.

This week’s over/under line is 53.5 points, lower than any of their previous games. Miami’s over/under record is 7-3-1, with their games averaging 68.1 points and an average line of 59.5 points.

Miami’s offense has been the best in college football heading into week 1, leading the nation with 44.2 points per game and topping our offensive power rankings. They also have the highest third-down conversion rate at 56.5%. Their passing game ranks second nationally with 359.2 yards per game, and they are eighth in passing completions, averaging 25.9 per game.

Cam Ward leads the Hurricanes’ passing attack with 4,123 yards and 36 touchdowns, posting a passer rating of 118. Xavier Restrepo has caught 69 passes for 1,127 yards and 11 touchdowns. On the ground, Miami averages 179.8 rushing yards per game.

Miami’s defense has been solid this season, ranking 25th nationally by allowing just 111.8 rushing yards per game. They also rank 40th in passer rating allowed, holding opposing quarterbacks to a 78.1 rating and a 56.9% completion rate, which is 35th-lowest in the country.

In their recent game against Syracuse, Miami allowed 42 points and 482 total yards, including 380 passing yards. Syracuse also recorded 26 first downs, though Miami limited them to 102 rushing yards on 32 attempts.

• Spanning across their last three games, Miami have gone 3-0. In addition, their ATS record over this stretch is 2-1 while posting a 1-2 over-under mark.
• Through their last ten regular season contests, Miami has a record of 8-2. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 4-6 and an over-under mark of 8-2.

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The Lean

Miami enters this week one matchup as the -1 point favorite over Iowa State. We expect Miami to cover the spread, with our projected final score being 31-27 in favor of the Hurricanes.

With the over/under line set at 53.5 points, our projection of 58 total points suggests that taking the over is the best play.