Southern Methodist Mustangs vs Texas Christian Horned Frogs Picks and Predictions September 21st 2024

Rivals TCU, SMU square off for Iron Skillet

Coming into this week four non-conference matchup, the TCU Horned Frogs are on the road vs. the SMU Mustangs. Kick-off is set for 5:00 ET from Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas. The CW will be handling the broadcast. The Horned Frogs are -2.5 point favorites on the road. The over/under line is at 57.5 points. Both teams are 2-1 on the season. The money line odds are -137 for TCU and +114 for SMU.

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TCU vs. SMU Key Information

• Teams: Horned Frogs at Mustangs
• Where: Gerald J. Ford Stadium Dallas
• Date: Saturday, September 21st
• Betting Odds TCU -137 | SMU +114 O/U 57.5

The Horned Frogs Can Win If…

TCU is looking to bounce back after a close 35-34 loss to UCF in their most recent game. The Horned Frogs, who were -2.5 point favorites, not only lost straight-up but also failed to cover the spread. The combined score of 69 points surpassed the over/under line of 61.5 points. This defeat dropped TCU to a 2-1 record for the season.

TCU started the game strong, taking a 14-0 lead. UCF, however, tied the game at 21-21 by halftime. The Knights then outscored TCU 10-13 in the third quarter, and the Horned Frogs managed just three points in the fourth quarter, leading to their defeat.

TCU’s offense, led by quarterback Josh Hoover, put up 464 yards in their 35-34 loss to UCF. Hoover completed 67.3% of his passes for 402 yards and four touchdowns. Jack Bech was his top target, hauling in nine receptions for 200 yards and a touchdown.

The Horned Frogs’ offense moved the chains 26 times, but they struggled to establish a ground game, finishing with just 62 rushing yards on 16 attempts. Cam Cook led the team in rushing with 35 yards on 11 carries.

TCU’s defense will be looking to rebound after giving up 519 total yards to UCF in their last game. The Horned Frogs allowed 289 rushing yards and 230 passing yards, with UCF converting on three passing touchdowns. TCU’s defense also struggled to get off the field, allowing 30 first downs.

• Through their last three games, the TCU Horned Frogs have a record of 2-1. Their record vs the spread in these matchups is less impressive at 0-3, while posting an over-under record of 2-1.
• Over their last ten regular season games, the TCU Horned Frogs have gone 4-6 straight up. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 3-7 to go along with an over-under mark of 5-4-1.

The Mustangs Can Win If…

SMU is looking to bounce back after a 18-15 loss to BYU in which they failed to cover the -12.5 point spread. This was their first ATS loss of the season, and they are now 2-1 overall. The game’s total score of 33 points fell short of the 56-point over/under line.

The Mustangs were up 7-0 after the first quarter, but BYU outscored them 9-0 in the second quarter, giving SMU a 9-7 deficit at halftime. SMU added a field goal in the third quarter, but BYU pulled ahead 15-12. Both teams scored in the fourth quarter, but the Mustangs couldn’t complete the comeback.

SMU’s offense is looking to bounce back after a game in which they were limited to 261 total yards. The Mustangs’ ground game was held to 117 yards, and they failed to score a rushing touchdown. In the passing game, SMU managed 144 yards on 17 completions. Kevin Jennings led the way, completing 15 of 32 passes for 140 yards, with one interception and a passer rating of 46.35.

Brashard Smith was the most effective runner for SMU, averaging 5.4 yards per carry, while Key’Shawn Smith led the receivers with four catches for 46 yards.

SMU’s defense will be looking to improve after giving up 475 total yards in their last game. BYU’s offense was able to move the ball effectively, with SMU allowing 157 rushing yards and 318 passing yards. The Mustangs’ secondary was particularly vulnerable, giving up three touchdowns through the air on 25 completions. SMU’s defense did manage to come up with one interception, but they’ll need to tighten up in coverage to be more successful.

• Spanning across their last three games, SMU have gone 2-1. This also includes going 2-1 ATS and an over-under mark of 2-1.
• The SMU Mustangs have gone 9-1 over their last ten regular season games. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 7-3 to go along with an over-under mark of 5-5.

The Lean

SMU is the +2.5 point underdog at home in their week four matchup against TCU. We have SMU winning straight-up, with a projected final score of 33-31 in their favor.

Given our projected final score of 33-31 in favor of SMU, we recommend taking the over, as the over/under line is set at 57.5 points.

Longtime rivals TCU and SMU are set to clash once again on Saturday in the highly anticipated “Battle for the Iron Skillet.” This annual rivalry game not only carries local bragging rights but comes at a pivotal time for both teams, each looking to rebound after tough losses.

A Storied Rivalry in Texas Football

The rivalry between Texas Christian University (TCU) and Southern Methodist University (SMU) is one of the most intense and historic in Texas college football. The two teams, located just 40 miles apart in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, will meet for the 103rd time. TCU leads the all-time series 53-42-7 and has dominated the matchup in recent years, winning 13 of the last 16 games, including the last two meetings.

This tradition of fierce competition dates back to 1915, and the Iron Skillet—a unique trophy symbolizing the rivalry—adds extra significance. For both teams, winning this game isn’t just about adding a win to their record; it’s about local pride and ownership of a historic piece of college football culture.

TCU and SMU Coming Off Tough Losses

Both TCU and SMU are heading into this year’s game with 2-1 records, but both teams suffered frustrating home defeats in their last outings.

SMU Struggles Against BYU

The SMU Mustangs were handed their first loss of the season by BYU in an 18-15 nail-biter on September 7. Despite a strong start to the season with two wins, the Mustangs struggled mightily on offense, managing only 261 total yards. Even more concerning, they failed to find the end zone, relying on kicker Collin Rogers for all their points with five field goals.

Quarterback issues have plagued SMU, with starter Preston Stone completing just 4 yards of passing before being sacked three times and replaced by Kevin Jennings. Jennings threw for 140 yards and one interception but could not spark the offense to a touchdown. Coach Rhett Lashlee has since confirmed that Jennings will start against TCU.

While Lashlee acknowledges the significance of the rivalry, he’s urging his team to treat the game as an opportunity to play better football: “This game is important to a lot of people, but when it kicks off, it’s another game. Fortunately, it’s our fourth game and a chance to go play our best football.”

TCU’s Collapse Against UCF

The TCU Horned Frogs are also looking to bounce back from a heart-wrenching 35-34 loss to UCF in their Big 12 Conference opener on September 14. After jumping out to a commanding 28-7 lead early in the third quarter, TCU couldn’t hold off a furious comeback from UCF. A touchdown pass with just 36 seconds left gave UCF the lead, and TCU’s last hope—a 58-yard field goal attempt—sailed wide right.

Despite the disappointing finish, TCU’s offense showed its firepower. Quarterback Josh Hoover threw for 402 yards and four touchdowns, and wide receiver Jack Beck had a career day with nine catches for 200 yards and a touchdown. Coach Sonny Dykes remained optimistic, praising his team’s first-half performance and expressing confidence that they can learn from the loss: “We didn’t finish the game out, and I’m disappointed, but we will learn from that. That game doesn’t define who we are or who we are going to be.”

Key Players to Watch

As both teams look to get back on track, several key players will have a significant impact on the outcome of the game.

• Kevin Jennings (SMU, QB): After stepping in for an ineffective Preston Stone, Jennings is set to start and will be under the spotlight. Can he ignite an offense that failed to score a touchdown in its last outing?
• Josh Hoover (TCU, QB): Hoover’s standout performance against UCF, where he threw for over 400 yards, demonstrated his ability to lead a dynamic offense. He will be instrumental in guiding TCU’s attack and keeping SMU’s defense on its heels.
• Jack Beck (TCU, WR): With 200 receiving yards in his last game, Beck is emerging as Hoover’s go-to target. If Beck continues his dominant form, SMU’s secondary will have a tough time keeping up.

Coaching Mindsets: Focused on Improvement

Both coaches are laser-focused on improving their teams after recent losses. SMU’s Rhett Lashlee is looking for more consistency, especially from his offense. His decision to stick with Kevin Jennings suggests confidence in the young quarterback’s ability to lead the team forward.

Meanwhile, Sonny Dykes of TCU emphasized learning from their UCF defeat. His team showed flashes of brilliance but couldn’t close out the game, a point he’s determined to address. Dykes’ optimism about their potential suggests that the Horned Frogs are aiming to build on their strong moments and bring a complete performance against their rival.

The Stakes: More Than Just a Win

While every game in college football is important, rivalry games like the Battle for the Iron Skillet carry extra weight. For TCU, winning would solidify their recent dominance over SMU and restore momentum as they navigate their Big 12 schedule. SMU, on the other hand, has the chance to claim the Skillet for the first time in three years and bounce back from their disappointing loss to BYU.

Beyond the immediate implications for both teams’ seasons, this game will provide an opportunity to make a statement. The winner gets to claim not just a valuable win, but also the all-important Iron Skillet—a symbol of local pride that has been passed between these two teams for over a century.

Final Thoughts: Who Will Seize the Iron Skillet?

As both teams prepare to face off, the Iron Skillet matchup promises to be a hard-fought, emotional contest. TCU’s high-powered offense led by Josh Hoover will try to overwhelm SMU’s defense, while Kevin Jennings will look to find his rhythm as SMU’s starting quarterback. Ultimately, the game will come down to execution, mental toughness, and which team can bounce back more effectively from their recent setbacks.

The Battle for the Iron Skillet always delivers drama, and with both teams at a crossroads in their seasons, this year’s contest may prove to be pivotal in defining their respective paths. Will TCU extend its dominance, or can SMU reclaim the Skillet and reignite their season? All eyes will be on Dallas this Saturday as these fierce rivals go head-to-head.

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