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North Carolina Tar Heels vs NC State Wolfpack November 30th 2024
Kenan Memorial Stadium in Chapel Hill is the site for this week 14 matchup between the North Carolina Tar Heels and NC State Wolfpack. Kick-off is set for 3:30 ET, and the game will be broadcast on ACCN. The Tar Heels are the -3.5 point favorites at home, with the over/under line currently at 55.5 points. The Tar Heels have a 6-5 record, while the Wolfpack are 5-6 on the season.
NC State vs. North Carolina Key Information
- Teams: Wolfpack at Tar Heels
- Where: Kenan Memorial Stadium Chapel Hill
- Date: Saturday, November 30th
- Betting Odds NCAR -167 | NCST +140 O/U 55.5
The Wolfpack Can Win If…
NC State heads into Week 14 against North Carolina with a 5-6 record, and they have a 34.4% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Wolfpack are 3-4 at home and 1-2 on the road this season, and they rank 69th in our power rankings. They’ve been favored in five of their 11 games, going 3-2 as the favorite.
NC State’s ATS record stands at 3-7, with a 1-6 mark at home and 2-1 on the road. They’ve gone 1-4 against the spread as the favorite, and their average scoring margin this season is -1.9 points per game.
The over/under line for this week is 55.5 points, while NC State’s games have averaged an over/under line of 49.6 points. Their over/under record is 7-3, with their games averaging 59.2 points per contest.
NC State’s offense has been middle-of-the-pack this season, averaging 28.6 points per game, which ranks 51st nationally. They are 99th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 14. The Wolfpack’s passing game is their strength, ranking 37th in completions and averaging 231.9 yards per game. They are 31st in completion percentage at 64.3%.
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CJ Bailey has thrown for 1,940 yards and has a passer rating of 89. He has 12 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Leading the ground game is Jordan Waters, with 410 rushing yards. KC Concepcion leads the receivers with 415 yards and 5 touchdowns on 50 catches.
NC State’s defense has struggled this season, allowing an average of 30.5 points per game, including 30 points in their recent 30-29 loss to Georgia Tech. They gave up 391 total yards, with 272 passing yards, though they did manage to force an interception.
Opponents have averaged 238 passing yards per game against NC State, ranking them 120th nationally. The defense has faced the 25th fewest rushing attempts in the country, allowing 141.5 rushing yards per game.
- Across NC State’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 1-2. They have held up well vs the spread in these matchups, going 2-1 as well as an over-under record of 2-1.
- Across NC State’s last ten regular season games, their record sits at 4-6. This includes going 3-7 vs. the spread along with an over-under mark of 7-3.
The Tar Heels Can Win If…
North Carolina enters Week 14 with a 6-5 record, and they are 57th in our power rankings. They are already bowl-eligible but have no chance of winning the Atlantic Coast. At home, the Tar Heels are 2-3, while they’ve gone 3-2 on the road this season.
Their ATS record stands at 2-7-1, and they’ve gone 0-5 against the spread at home. North Carolina has been favored in seven games, with a 1-5-1 ATS record as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +5 points per game.
This week’s over/under line is set at 55.5 points. The Tar Heels’ average over/under line this season is 55.2 points, and they’ve averaged 60.1 points per game. Their over/under record is 4-6, with an average margin of +5.4 points.
North Carolina’s offense is averaging 32.5 points per game heading into week 14, placing them 31st nationally. They are ranked 56th in our offensive power rankings. The Tar Heels have focused on their ground game, averaging 189.7 rushing yards per game on 39.7 attempts, ranking 19th in rushing attempts.
Omarion Hampton leads the rushing attack with 1,475 yards and 14 touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Quarterback Jacolby Criswell has thrown for 2,179 yards with 12 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, holding a passer rating of 87. J.J. Jones leads the receivers with 551 yards and 5 touchdowns.
North Carolina’s defense struggled in their recent game against Boston College, giving up 41 points in a 41-21 loss. They allowed 24 first downs and 422 total yards, including 230 rushing yards on 51 attempts and three rushing touchdowns. Through the air, they surrendered 192 yards and one passing touchdown.
On the season, North Carolina is allowing 27.5 points per game. Opponents are averaging 139.4 rushing yards per game and 231.7 passing yards. Quarterbacks have completed 55.9% of their passes against the Tar Heels, posting a passer rating of 83.2.
- Through their last three regular season contests, North Carolina has a record of 1-2. Their record vs the spread sits at 0-3 in these matchups, while posting a 1-2 over-under mark.
- Over their last ten regular season games, the North Carolina Tar Heels have gone 6-4 straight up. In these matchups, they ended with an ATS record of 2-8 and an over-under mark of 5-4-1.
The Lean
North Carolina is the -3.5 point spread favorite at home in their week 14 matchup against NC State. Our projected final score is 31-26 in favor of the Tar Heels, so we recommend taking North Carolina to cover the spread.
With the over/under line set at 55.5 points, our projection of 57 points suggests that taking the over is the best play for this game.
Mack Brown’s Farewell: North Carolina Hosts NC State in Rivalry Showdown
The stakes will be high on Saturday in Chapel Hill, N.C., as North Carolina hosts NC State in a game that marks the end of an era. For the Tar Heels, it will be Mack Brown’s final home game as head coach, while the Wolfpack are fighting to extend their season with bowl eligibility on the line.
Farewell to Mack Brown
North Carolina (6-5, 3-4 ACC) heads into this rivalry game under an emotionally charged cloud following the university’s announcement earlier this week that Brown, 73, will not return as head coach next season.
Brown, who initially planned to return in 2024, expressed mixed emotions about his departure:
“While this was not the perfect time and way in which I imagined going out, no time will ever be the perfect time,” Brown said. “We’ve had the chance to coach and mentor some great young men … and I hope our fans will show up Saturday to send these seniors out right.”
Brown’s second tenure at North Carolina (2019-2023) restored credibility to the program, but this season’s struggles, particularly in ACC play, have defined a difficult year. The Tar Heels have lost four of their last five games, including a 24-21 defeat to Clemson last week.
NC State’s Bowl Eligibility Battle
For the Wolfpack (5-6, 2-5), the stakes couldn’t be higher. A win would make NC State bowl-eligible for the 10th time in Dave Doeren’s 11-year tenure. A loss would mark just the third losing season for Doeren since 2013.
NC State enters the contest smarting from a heartbreaking 30-29 road loss to Georgia Tech. Freshman quarterback CJ Bailey had a solid performance, but the Wolfpack defense faltered in the final moments, allowing an 18-yard game-winning touchdown run with 22 seconds left.
Bailey has shown promise, completing 63.7 percent of his passes for 1,941 yards and 12 touchdowns this season while adding five rushing scores. However, his eight interceptions reflect growing pains typical of a first-year starter.
The Rivalry Runs Deep
Saturday’s game will be the 113th meeting between the in-state rivals, with North Carolina leading the all-time series 68-38-6. However, NC State has won the last three matchups, including an epic double-overtime victory last year in Raleigh.
For Doeren, the rivalry carries personal significance:
“I guess I don’t treat it as a normal game. … This one runs deeper,” Doeren said. “It matters deeply to former players, alumni, donors, and our administration.”
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Key Matchups
- Drake Maye vs. NC State’s Defense
Tar Heels quarterback Drake Maye will look to shine in what could be his final game in Chapel Hill before a likely NFL Draft entry. Maye has thrown for 3,436 yards, 23 touchdowns, and nine interceptions this season. Facing a Wolfpack defense that ranks third in the ACC in total yards allowed (318.7 per game), Maye’s performance will be critical. - CJ Bailey’s Poise
The freshman quarterback will face a North Carolina defense allowing 26.6 points per game. Bailey will need to limit turnovers and lean on his dual-threat capabilities to keep the Wolfpack in the game. - Tar Heels’ Ground Game vs. Wolfpack Front Seven
Running back Omarion Hampton has been a bright spot for UNC, rushing for 1,202 yards and 13 touchdowns. The Wolfpack will need to contain him to force the game onto Maye’s shoulders.
What’s at Stake
- North Carolina: A chance to send Mack Brown out with a win in his final home game and regain pride after three consecutive losses to their rival.
- NC State: Bowl eligibility and the opportunity to deliver a parting blow to Brown’s tenure.
Atmosphere and Legacy
Kenan Stadium is expected to be electric as fans bid farewell to a coaching legend.
“This game has meaning,” Brown said earlier in the week. “Not just for me, but for this team and this university. It’s a chance to leave a lasting mark.”
Prediction
With emotions running high and both teams hungry for a statement win, expect a fierce battle in Chapel Hill. For the Tar Heels, it’s about honoring their coach and turning the tide in a storied rivalry. For the Wolfpack, it’s about survival and keeping their season alive.
Kickoff is set for Saturday afternoon in what promises to be a memorable edition of one of the ACC’s most passionate rivalries.
