Arkansas Razorbacks vs Louisiana State Tigers Picks and Predictions October 19th 2024

ESPN will be covering this week eight matchup between the LSU Tigers and the Arkansas Razorbacks, set for 7:00 ET at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville. LSU comes in with a 5-1 record, while Arkansas is 4-2. The Tigers are the slight -2.5-point favorites on the road. The over/under line is currently at 54.5 points.

LSU vs. Arkansas Key Information

LSU heads into their Week 8 matchup against Arkansas with a 5-1 record, sitting 14th in our power rankings. They have a 98.5% chance of becoming bowl-eligible, while their odds of winning the Southeastern stand at 3.9%. The Tigers have a 24.4% chance of making the playoff, which ranks 17th in the country.

This season, LSU has been favored in four of their six games, going 3-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +11.8 points, but they are 1-3 against the spread.

LSU’s over/under record is 1-3, with their games averaging 56.5 points. The average over/under line this season is 60.1 points, and this week’s line is set at 54.5 points.

LSU’s offense is ranked 9th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 8. They are also 26th in points per game, with an average of 34.2. Garrett Nussmeier has thrown for 1,993 yards and 18 touchdowns, but he has also thrown six interceptions and has a passer rating of 102.

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LSU is 2nd in the nation in passing attempts per game, averaging 42.3. They are 7th in passing yards, with 337.7 per game, and 5th in completions. Kyren Lacy leads the team with 463 receiving yards and six touchdowns. On the ground, LSU is averaging 123 rushing yards per game.

LSU’s defense has allowed 22.3 points per game this season, ranking 38th nationally. In their recent game against Ole Miss, they gave up 26 points but managed to secure a win in overtime. The defense allowed 465 total yards, including 284 passing yards, though they did force one interception.

Opponents have averaged 244 passing yards per game against LSU, ranking the Tigers 116th in the nation. Quarterbacks have completed 64.6% of their passes against LSU’s defense. On the ground, LSU has allowed 133.8 rushing yards per game this season.

Arkansas comes into Week 8 against LSU with a 4-2 record, ranked 25th in our power rankings. They have an 88.8% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. At home, the Razorbacks are 2-0 this season.

Arkansas has been favored in just one game this season, going 1-0 as the favorite. They’ve been the underdog in three games, with a 2-1 record in those matchups. Their average scoring margin is +13.8 points per game.

The Razorbacks are 3-1 against the spread, covering in all three games as the underdog. Their over/under record is 1-3, with an average line of 56.8 points and an average total of 52.2 points per game.

Heading into week 8, Arkansas is averaging 33 points per game, placing them 30th nationally. Our rankings have them as the 35th best offense in college football. Their rushing attack is the focal point, with 201.5 yards per game on 40.3 attempts.

Ja’Quinden Jackson leads the ground game with 566 yards and 10 touchdowns. Taylen Green has thrown for 1,502 yards, but has five touchdowns and five interceptions, with a passer rating of 80.

Arkansas’ defense has been a strong point this season, ranking 24th nationally by allowing just 19.2 points per game. They’ve been particularly effective against the run, giving up only 107 rushing yards per game, which ranks 30th in the country. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 56.9% of their passes for an average of 215 yards per game against Arkansas’ secondary.

In their recent game against Tennessee, Arkansas’ defense allowed 14 points and 312 total yards. They gave up 143 rushing yards on 43 attempts and 169 passing yards, while also forcing one interception.

Arkansas is the +2.5 point underdog at home in this week eight matchup against LSU. We expect the Razorbacks to not only cover the spread but also win the game, with a projected final score of 31-25 in their favor.

With the over/under line set at 54.5 points, our projection of 56 total points suggests that taking the over is the best play for this game.

No. 8 LSU Hopes to Ride Momentum vs. Arkansas

Coming off an exhilarating overtime win against then-No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 8 LSU (5-1, 2-0 SEC) looks to maintain its winning ways as it hits the road to face Arkansas (4-2, 2-1 SEC) on Saturday night in Fayetteville, Ark. The Tigers will aim to extend their winning streak to six games and keep their momentum alive as they head into a pivotal stretch of the season.

A Clutch Win Fuels LSU’s Confidence

Last week’s 29-26 overtime victory over Ole Miss showcased LSU’s resilience. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier connected with Kyren Lacy on a 25-yard touchdown pass to clinch the win, capping off a thrilling game that saw the Tigers constantly fighting from behind.

LSU coach Brian Kelly recognized the unique challenge posed by the game, saying, “That was one of a few games that I have had in my career that it always felt like we were one step behind, and we were, and we were always trying to stay in the game.”

Despite the nail-biting nature of the contest, LSU ultimately found a way to prevail. The victory was significant in boosting the Tigers’ confidence as they navigate a competitive SEC schedule.

Nussmeier’s Breakout Season

One of the primary reasons for LSU’s success this year has been the emergence of quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. The sophomore signal-caller has been prolific, throwing for 1,989 yards and 18 touchdowns while completing 64.3 percent of his passes. His performance has been a key driver of LSU’s potent offense, which has averaged 43 points per game over the last five outings.

Nussmeier’s ability to spread the ball around has kept defenses off balance. Mason Taylor, the Tigers’ standout tight end, leads the team with 33 receptions. Kyren Lacy has become Nussmeier’s go-to target in the red zone, hauling in six touchdown receptions among his 30 catches this season. Meanwhile, wideout Aaron Anderson has 30 receptions, already far surpassing his 12-catch output from last year.

The effectiveness of LSU’s passing game has made life easier for Nussmeier, who has only been sacked twice this season—both coming in a Sept. 14 win at South Carolina.

Arkansas’ Defense Presents a Stiff Challenge

While LSU is riding high, Arkansas presents a formidable challenge. The Razorbacks, under second-year head coach Sam Pittman, have developed into one of the stingiest defenses in the SEC, holding opponents to an average of 19.2 points per game.

Arkansas has had extra time to prepare for LSU, as the Razorbacks are coming off a bye week following their upset of then-No. 4 Tennessee on Oct. 5. In that 19-14 win, Arkansas became the first team to successfully slow down Tennessee’s explosive offense, holding quarterback Nico Iamaleava to just 158 passing yards.

Defensive coordinator Travis Williams has brought flexibility and creativity to the Razorbacks’ defense. Arkansas employed a six-defensive-back scheme against Tennessee, combining tight coverage with a strong pass rush that generated four sacks. Given Nussmeier’s proficiency in the passing game, Arkansas may opt for a similar strategy on Saturday.

Key Injuries for Arkansas

Arkansas could face challenges on the injury front, which could affect their game plan against LSU. Cornerback Jaylon Braxton, who was expected to be the Razorbacks’ top defensive back this season, might miss his fifth consecutive game due to tendinitis. His absence would be a blow to Arkansas’ secondary, particularly given the firepower of LSU’s passing game.

Additionally, Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green sustained a bone bruise in his leg during the fourth quarter of the Tennessee game. While his status remains uncertain, it could affect Arkansas’ ability to move the ball against an LSU defense that ranks in the top half of the SEC in yards allowed per game.

Green, a sophomore transfer from Boise State, has completed 56.6 percent of his passes this season for 1,502 yards with five touchdowns and five interceptions. He also brings mobility to the offense, but if he’s less than 100 percent, Arkansas may need to lean more heavily on their running game, led by Ja’Quinden Jackson.

LSU’s Path to Success

LSU has dominated this rivalry in recent years, winning seven of the last eight meetings between the two teams, including a dramatic 34-31 victory last year. For LSU to continue its success against Arkansas, it will need to keep Nussmeier upright and allow him to exploit mismatches in the secondary. With a plethora of talented receivers at his disposal, Nussmeier is capable of spreading the ball and keeping Arkansas on its heels.

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Arkansas, meanwhile, will need to replicate the defensive success they found against Tennessee, pressuring Nussmeier while maintaining disciplined coverage. The health of key players, particularly on defense, will play a significant role in whether Arkansas can pull off another upset.

What’s at Stake

For LSU, this game represents an opportunity to maintain its position as a top contender in the SEC West. With matchups against tougher SEC foes like Alabama and Texas A&M still on the horizon, every win is crucial to their hopes of a potential playoff push.

On the other hand, Arkansas is looking to build on its impressive win over Tennessee and prove that it can compete with the conference’s elite. A win over LSU would not only bolster the Razorbacks’ bowl chances but also solidify Pittman’s program as a rising force in the SEC.

As both teams prepare for what promises to be a hard-fought battle, the stakes are high for a pivotal SEC West matchup. Will LSU’s momentum continue to carry them forward, or will Arkansas play spoiler once again on their home turf?