Florida State Seminoles vs California Golden Bears Picks and Predictions September 21st 2024

ESPN2 will be covering the California Golden Bears vs. Florida State Seminoles matchup, set to kick off at 7:00 ET from Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee. The over/under line is currently 44.5 points. The Seminoles are the slight -2.5-point favorites at home, but the Golden Bears are 3-0 coming into this game, while Florida State is looking for their first win of the season.

California vs. Florida State Key Information

California is off to a strong start this season, moving to 3-0 after a 31-10 victory over San Diego State. The Golden Bears, who were -19.5 point favorites, not only won but also covered the spread. This game’s over/under was set at 48.5 points, but the teams combined for just 41, resulting in the under hitting.

California took an early 7-3 lead and then held San Diego State scoreless in the second half while adding 24 more points. The Aztecs managed a late touchdown in the fourth quarter, but by then, the Golden Bears had already put up 31 points.

California’s offense was dominant in their 31-10 win, racking up 473 total yards and 21 first downs. The ground game was particularly effective, with 275 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Jaivian Thomas led the way with 169 yards on 17 carries, averaging 9.9 yards per attempt. The Bears also found success through the air, with Fernando Mendoza completing 72.4% of his passes for 198 yards and two touchdowns. Nyziah Hunter was the top receiver, hauling in four catches for 52 yards.

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California’s defense was effective in their most recent game, holding San Diego State to 10 points and 276 total yards. The Golden Bears’ secondary was particularly strong, picking off two passes and limiting the Aztecs to 166 passing yards on 14 completions. Overall, California’s defense allowed just 110 rushing yards on 35 attempts.

Florida State is still searching for their first win of the season after a 20-12 loss to Memphis. The Seminoles, who were -6.5 point favorites, not only lost straight-up but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total score of 32 points was well below the over/under line of 54.5 points.

Florida State fell behind early, with Memphis taking a 13-3 lead at halftime. The Seminoles managed to close the gap to 20-9 by the end of the 3rd quarter, but they could only add a field goal in the 4th quarter.

Florida State’s offense struggled to move the ball in their most recent game, finishing with just 238 total yards and 12 points. The Seminoles managed only 37 rushing yards on 24 attempts, and their only touchdown came on the ground. In the passing game, DJ Uiagalelei completed 53.3% of his passes for 201 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception. His passer rating for the game was 60.56.

Malik Benson was the top receiver for the Seminoles, with five receptions for 99 yards. On the ground, Lawrance Toafili led the team with 30 rushing yards on four carries.

Florida State’s defense will look to improve after giving up 337 yards in their most recent game. Memphis found success through the air, throwing for 272 yards and two touchdowns, while the Seminoles’ defense managed to pick off one pass. Against the run, Florida State was more effective, allowing just 65 yards on 32 carries.

Our projections have California beating Florida State by a score of 25-18. California is the +2.5 point underdogs, and we like their chances to win straight-up as the road team. For this week four matchup, we suggest taking California to win and cover the spread.

With the over/under line set at 44.5 points, our projection of 43 points suggests taking the under as the best play.

Winless Florida State Hosts Undefeated Cal in ACC Showdown

As Florida State prepares to host California for their first-ever Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) matchup on Saturday night in Tallahassee, the contrast between the two teams couldn’t be more stark. While Cal enters the game with an unblemished record, the Seminoles are searching for their first win in what has been one of the most disappointing starts in their program’s storied history.

Cal Riding High at 3-0

The California Golden Bears, under head coach Justin Wilcox, are off to a 3-0 start for the first time since 2019. This streak includes a signature road win over Auburn, showcasing Cal’s potential to compete against quality opponents. Despite their undefeated record, Wilcox remains cautious, emphasizing that his team still has a lot to prove as they face the challenge of playing in a tough road environment like Doak Campbell Stadium.

“We all got to learn how to win,” Wilcox said following Cal’s 31-10 victory over San Diego State last weekend. “The team has to learn how to win, the program’s got to learn how to win.”

Cal put up a season-high 473 yards of offense in their win against the Aztecs. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza delivered a solid performance, completing 21 of 29 passes for 198 yards and two touchdowns. Nyziah Hunter has emerged as a key playmaker for the Bears, catching four touchdowns in the first three games. The balanced offense has been a strength for Cal, which will need to maintain its momentum against Florida State.

Struggles Continue for Florida State

On the opposite side, Florida State is reeling after an unexpected 0-3 start. The Seminoles opened the season with high expectations, ranked in the top 10 and coming off a 13-0 regular season in 2023. However, they have struggled to find their footing, with offensive inconsistency and a lack of a productive running game contributing to their poor start.

Transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has yet to find his rhythm in Mike Norvell’s offense. Uiagalelei has completed 56 of 99 passes for 666 yards with just one touchdown and two interceptions. While he has shown flashes of his potential, the lack of a complementary running game has hampered the Seminoles’ ability to sustain drives. Florida State ranks near the bottom of the FBS in rushing, averaging just 52 yards per game, placing them 133rd out of 134 teams.

Norvell, who is in his fourth season as head coach at FSU, acknowledged the difficulties but remains hopeful that the team can turn things around. Following a 20-12 loss to Memphis, where Uiagalelei threw for 201 yards and an interception, Norvell emphasized that improvement will require a collective effort from all 11 players on the field.

“Looking at DJ, obviously, it’s been a challenging start for everybody. It takes 11,” Norvell said. “We all have a job, we all have a responsibility. I think when you look at the game, there were some things that DJ did really well in putting guys in a position and trying to give opportunities. But there were also a few times that we had some missed opportunities on his part, in our overall execution.”

Key Matchups to Watch

1. Fernando Mendoza vs. Florida State’s Secondary: Mendoza has been efficient for Cal, and with Nyziah Hunter emerging as a top target, the Golden Bears will look to exploit Florida State’s secondary. The Seminoles’ defense will need to pressure Mendoza and force him into mistakes to give their offense a chance to capitalize.
2. Florida State’s Offensive Line vs. Cal’s Defense: Florida State’s struggles in the run game have put more pressure on Uiagalelei, but the offensive line has also been a concern. If the Seminoles can’t establish the run, it will be a long day against a solid Cal defense.
3. Cal’s Offense vs. FSU’s Desperation: With their season on the line, Florida State is desperate for a win. Cal’s ability to maintain poise and continue their efficient offense will be crucial against a team with its back against the wall.

What’s at Stake

For Cal, a victory would continue their surprising start to the season and solidify their place as a team to watch in the ACC. A road win in Tallahassee would add to their resume and build confidence as they enter the heart of conference play.

For Florida State, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The Seminoles are fighting to salvage their season, and a loss to Cal would put them in an even deeper hole. Norvell and Uiagalelei will need to find a way to spark the offense, as the team cannot afford to fall to 0-4.

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Final Thoughts

Saturday’s matchup between Cal and Florida State presents two teams in very different situations. While Cal is riding high after a strong start, Florida State is in the midst of a crisis, with their once-promising season now teetering on the brink of disaster. The game will likely come down to whether the Seminoles can find their rhythm on offense and whether Cal can continue their balanced and efficient play.

For Florida State fans, there is hope that their team can turn things around, but they will need to see significant improvements on both sides of the ball. Cal, on the other hand, will be eager to prove that their unbeaten record is no fluke and that they can compete with teams from a football-rich program like Florida State.