Tcu Horned Frogs vs Louisiana Ragin Cajuns Picks and Predictions December 28th 2024

TCU Horned Frogs vs Louisiana Ragin Cajuns December 28th 2024

ESPN will be covering the Isleta New Mexico Bowl, where the TCU Horned Frogs and Louisiana Ragin Cajuns will face off on Saturday, December 28th, with kickoff set for 2:15 ET. The game will be played at University Stadium in Albuquerque, even though TCU is technically the home team. The over/under line is at 60.5 points, and TCU is the -9.5 point favorite. The money line odds have TCU at -380 and Louisiana at +290.

Louisiana vs. TCU Key Information

• Teams: Ragin Cajuns at Horned Frogs
• Where: University Stadium Albuquerque
• Date: Saturday, December 28th
• Betting Odds TCU -380 | LOULAF +290 O/U 60.5

The Ragin Cajuns Can Win If…

Louisiana heads into their Week 1 matchup against TCU with a 10-3 record. They’ve been perfect on the road at 5-0, while their home record stands at 3-3. The Ragin Cajuns have been favored in eight of their 13 games, going 6-2 as the favorite.

Their average scoring margin this season is +9.7, and they are 6-5 against the spread. Louisiana has covered the spread in four of their five road games (4-1) but are 2-4 ATS at home.

This week’s over/under line is set at 60.5 points. Louisiana’s average over/under line has been 57.3 points, and their games have averaged 56.5 points. They are 6-5 against the over/under this season, with only one game having a higher line than this week’s total.

Louisiana’s offense has been driven by their passing game, ranking 18th in passing yards per game. Ben Wooldridge has thrown for 2,392 yards, completing 68.1% of his passes, and has a passer rating of 109. He has 17 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions. The Ragin Cajuns are 26th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 33.1 points per game.

Lance LeGendre leads the receiving corps with 814 yards and six touchdowns on 48 catches. Louisiana is 42nd in rushing, averaging 172.4 yards per game. Bill Davis has rushed for 775 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry.

Louisiana’s defense struggled in their recent game against Marshall, allowing 31 points in a 31-3 loss. They gave up 415 total yards, including 222 rushing yards on 42 attempts and 193 passing yards, while forcing no turnovers.

On the season, Louisiana ranks 50th nationally, allowing 23.4 points per game. Opponents have averaged 162.4 rushing yards per game and 189.4 passing yards, completing 64% of their throws.

• Spanning across their last three games, Louisiana have gone 2-1. This also includes going 2-1 ATS and an over-under mark of 2-1.
• The Louisiana Ragin Cajuns have gone 8-2 over their last ten regular season games. Their record vs the spread sits at 6-4 in these matchups, while posting a 5-5 over-under mark.

The Horned Frogs Can Win If…

With an 8-4 record, TCU is set to face Louisiana in Week 1. They’ve gone 3-2 at home and 4-2 on the road this season. TCU has been favored in eight of their 12 games, posting a 5-3 record as the favorite.

TCU’s ATS record stands at 5-6, with a 2-3 mark at home and 3-3 on the road. As the favorite, they are 3-5 against the spread, but they’ve gone 2-1 ATS as the underdog.

The over/under line for this week is 60.5 points. TCU’s games have averaged 59.8 points, with their over/under record at 7-4 and an average margin of +1.4 points.

Heading into week 11, TCU’s offense is ranked 24th in our power rankings, averaging 33.4 points per game. They have relied heavily on their passing game, ranking 7th in the nation with 317.6 passing yards per game, and they are 10th in completions, averaging 25.4 per game. TCU is also 16th in passing attempts.

Quarterback Josh Hoover has thrown for 3,697 yards this season, completing 66.7% of his passes, with 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He has a passer rating of 100. Jack Bech leads the receiving corps with 1,034 yards and nine touchdowns on 62 catches. TCU’s run game has struggled, averaging just 117.6 yards per game.

TCU’s defense played a crucial role in their 20-13 win over Cincinnati, allowing just 13 points. They gave up 374 total yards, including 214 rushing yards and 160 passing yards, but managed to keep Cincinnati out of the end zone through the air, also forcing an interception.

So far this season, TCU’s defense is ranked 56th nationally, allowing 26.4 points per game. They’ve given up 166.3 rushing yards per game, ranking 114th, and 192.7 passing yards per game, which ranks 45th.

• TCU will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 3-0 over their past three games. Against the spread, the team is 2-1 in these same games while going 2-1 on the over/under.
• TCU has put together a record of 6-4 in their last ten games (regular season). Against the spread, TCU went 5-5 in these games and finished with an over-under mark of 4-5-1.

The Lean

Our pick for the over/under line of 60.5 points in this Louisiana vs. TCU matchup is to take the under. We project a combined total of 58 points, making the under a strong play.

As for the spread, Louisiana comes in as the +9.5 point underdogs, but we have them winning this game straight-up with a final score of 30-28. So, take Louisiana to cover and win, and go with the under on the points line.

Louisiana Faces Tough Task Against TCU in New Mexico Bowl

The New Mexico Bowl will see two teams with contrasting recent form collide as the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns take on the surging TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday in Albuquerque. Louisiana looks to rebound from a disappointing showing in the Sun Belt Conference championship, while TCU aims to cap off a strong finish to its season.

TCU: Momentum on Their Side

After a shaky start to the season, the TCU Horned Frogs (8-4) turned things around, winning five of their last six games. Their only loss in that span was a narrow, last-second defeat to Baylor. Head coach Sonny Dykes credits the team’s resilience and their ability to address a major issue: turnovers.

“We had three games where we turned the ball over 12 times,” Dykes said. “But we managed to get through it and survive it.”

Sophomore quarterback Josh Hoover has been a catalyst for TCU’s success. With 3,697 passing yards, Hoover is poised to break TCU’s single-season passing record of 3,901 yards held by Trevone Boykin. Hoover’s connection with Jack Bech, a Louisiana native and LSU transfer who surpassed 1,000 receiving yards this season, has been a cornerstone of the Horned Frogs’ offense.

TCU’s defense also deserves credit, improving its turnover margin (+3) over the last six games after a rough start. This balanced performance has given the Horned Frogs confidence heading into the bowl game.

Louisiana: Seeking Redemption

The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (10-3) had an excellent season but stumbled badly in the Sun Belt Conference championship, suffering a lopsided 31-3 loss to Marshall. Head coach Michael Desormeaux is focused on resetting the team’s mindset for the bowl game.

“If you can finish this season with a win against a team like TCU and finish with 11 wins, that puts you in a better starting spot next year,” Desormeaux said.

Louisiana’s offense hinges on its quarterback play, and there’s optimism that Ben Wooldridge might return after missing the last three games due to a shoulder injury. In his absence, Chandler Fields performed admirably, completing 72.4% of his passes with five touchdowns and one interception.

A significant bright spot for Louisiana has been kicker Kenneth Almendares, who won the Lou Groza Award as the nation’s top kicker. Almendares went 27-for-29 on field goals, with his only misses coming from 53 and 60 yards, and he converted 46 of 47 extra-point attempts.

Key Matchups to Watch

Josh Hoover vs. Louisiana’s Defense

Hoover’s high-powered passing attack will test Louisiana’s secondary, which has been solid for most of the season but struggled in the Sun Belt title game. TCU’s offense thrives on big plays, and Louisiana must find ways to pressure Hoover and disrupt his rhythm.

Louisiana’s Running Game vs. TCU’s Front Seven

The Ragin’ Cajuns have leaned on their ground game throughout the season. Establishing the run will be critical to keeping Hoover and the Horned Frogs’ offense off the field.

Special Teams Edge

Louisiana’s Kenneth Almendares could play a pivotal role in a close game, while TCU’s special teams must avoid giving up easy scoring opportunities.

What’s at Stake

• TCU: A win would cement their status as one of the Big 12’s stronger programs this season and provide momentum for 2024.
• Louisiana: Securing an 11-win season with a victory over a Power Five opponent would be a massive boost for the program heading into the offseason.

Prediction

TCU enters the game with significant momentum and a high-octane offense led by Josh Hoover. Louisiana, while talented, will need to play a near-perfect game to overcome its roster limitations and rebound from the Marshall loss. TCU’s firepower and recent form give them the edge.

Prediction: TCU 34, Louisiana 20